Chargers boast great playoff, Super Bowl outlook in ESPN FPI metrics

The Los Angeles Chargers are a popular team in the analytics world. 

Jim Harbaugh’s team happens to enjoy rostering a top-10 quarterback, so that sort of comes with the territory. And all the Chargers did this offseason was another roster churn to get things more in line with the head coach’s vision, while notably upgrading the skill positions around Justin Herbert. 

As a result, those Chargers do quite well in ESPN’s current FPI model outlooks. Los Angeles, for example, boasts the fifth-best odds to make the AFC playoffs at 57 percent, placing them behind only the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals. 

Considering where the globe last saw the Chargers (the faceplant of a playoff showing against the Texans), those are pretty good numbers. 

It shouldn’t come as any surprise, then, to hear that the Chargers also have the eighth-best odds by the FPI model to win the Super Bowl. Not terrible, considering the Eagles pace the NFL in that department at just 12 percent. 

ESPN’s Seth Walder explained why offense puts teams ahead in this model: “The common theme between the top five teams? Offensive strength. That's right, the ‘defense wins championships’ cliché isn't reflected here. Offense is more stable from game to game and season to season, so teams with the best past quarterback and offensive production are more likely to repeat that success. That's critical because the point of the FPI is to look ahead, not back.”

So, the Chargers are going to hang around for a while in these models with Herbert under center. All the supporting pieces around him have to do is keep a strong complementary defense going and protect him. 

As always, the Chargers didn’t make a huge DK Metcalf-level splash this offseason like some fans expected. But getting a new one-two punch at running back, upgrading guard with Mekhi Becton and adding some nice pieces at wideout to open up the field for No. 1 Ladd McConkey should still help the Chargers at least prove the playoff appearances part of the projections right.