The first quarter of an NFL season is usually the strangest, and that probably will end up being the case in 2018. But after five weeks, teams' deficiencies start to emerge. Some were apparent entering the season; some materialized early on. Here's what every team needs to worry about going into the middle sector of the season.
The Cardinals signed injury-prone offensive linemen to patch holes and started a nearing-(or past)-the-finish-line Sam Bradford for three games. But the Cards deployed a worse O-line in 2017 and ranked 22nd offensively. In 2016, Carson Palmer didn't have a great line; that offense was ninth. The Bruce Arians-to-Mike McCoy offensive switch is not going well. The Cards are 31st with 13 points per game; their 210.8 average yards per game resides last. Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson are providing fractions of past production, and Josh Rosen completed 10 passes in Sunday's win. A macro problem exists here.
The Falcons' home Super Bowl hopes are nearing a collapse before the trade deadline. Injuries have gutted Atlanta's defense, which ranks 28th. Starters Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen and Deion Jones are on IR, and Grady Jarrett missed Week 5. This has forced the Falcons into shootout mode. Even that hasn't worked out; the Saints and Bengals outdueled them. Only a handful of 1-4 teams have made the playoffs, and although the Chiefs and Texans did this three years ago, Atlanta's outlook is bleaker in a tough NFC South.
This season looks somewhat promising for the Ravens on the heels of three straight playoff absences. Baltimore's defense ranks fourth in DVOA, Marshal Yanda's back anchoring the offensive line, and John Brown is outperforming his contract. Surely motivated by Lamar Jackson's arrival, Joe Flacco's played better to start 2018. But it's hard to forget the well-paid passer's mediocrity of recent years. Flacco's 52.5 Total QBR sits 20th, behind Eli Manning and Mitchell Trubisky. Signs of a resurgence are there, but let's not get carried away yet.
The Bills brass didn't design this season to equal Buffalo's playoff drought-ending showing of last season. This was a rebuild. On offense, it shows. The Bills are averaging an NFL-low 12.6 points per game. Their offense rates as one of the worst in DVOA history through five games. The Bills' defense led the way to two wins, but the offense has issues on the line (league-most 22 sacks allowed), may have the NFL's worst pass-catcher depth chart and is playing a raw rookie QB ahead of time. And LeSean McCoy may be on his way out.
A problem in Carolina since general manager Dave Gettleman cut Steve Smith, the Panthers again don't measure up in the pass-catcher department. When compared to the aerial crews in the NFC South, Cam Newton's is well behind — especially with Greg Olsen battling more foot trouble. Devin Funchess is fine, and his size makes him a nice match for Newton's inconsistency as a passer. But he profiles as a No. 2 wideout. D.J. Moore may ascend to the No. 1 role at some point, but he's in early development. This could pose a problem in a tight division race.
Khalil Mack's arrival turned Chicago's defense from a sneaky-decent crew to one that leads the league in DVOA. This could be the latest chapter for a storied franchise that never goes too long without menacing defenses. Mitchell Trubisky's performing better than he did in 2017, but he has — aside from a blowup against the woeful Bucs pass defense — limited Matt Nagy's flashy new offense. Pro Football Focus ranks Trubisky 30th among QBs; he's 17th, however, in Total QBR. Trubisky will have to show improvement for Chicago to be a serious NFC contender, regardless of the Bears' defensive quality.
The Bengals are 4-1 after two unremarkable seasons, but they're still run by a cheap owner whose stinginess has been well-documented. Other teams let talent walk consistently, including the Ravens. Pittsburgh avoids most outside free agents, too. Both have more to show for their strategies than the Bengals. Owner Mike Brown may not be clueless in terms of pointing the franchise toward contention, but the Bengals don't do what other modern contenders have done to enhance their chances. Brown's a big reason why the franchise hasn't won a playoff game since Bo Jackson's NFL finale 27 years ago.
This is tough, since the Browns have shown marked improvement. But Jackson is coaching for his job. He was not given much of a roster in his first two seasons and should be given credit for Baker Mayfield's start. But he still judged Tyrod Taylor to be the superior QB for several weeks, a year after starting DeShone Kizer for 15 games during an NFL-record 1-31 futility stretch. The Browns could be 5-0 but also allowed the Raiders to score 45 points and lost to a Steelers team that committed six turnovers. But fans are getting their money's worth with Jackson, whose team's seen three overtime two-minute warnings.
Either Jerry Jones believes in Dak Prescott more than anyone , or the Cowboys owner erred in giving a former fourth-round pick next to no aerial weaponry this season. Jones may be coming closer to firing Jason Garrett, who does not have Dallas' offense in a good place (28th) in what's been a terrific year for offensive productivity leaguewide. Jones and his son leading the Cowboys' personnel department has not produced consistent success. The organization needs better decision-makers in the front office and on the sideline.
John Elway convinced Peyton Manning to move to Denver, but when his injuries forced a rapid decline, he rebuilt the Broncos around a reassembled defense. Elway has an unassailable legacy, but his work since Super Bowl 50 has hurt the Broncos. Drafting Paxton Lynch, hiring Vance Joseph over Kyle Shanahan and giving Case Keenum $18 million per year have the Broncos in a bind. Shaky drafts from 2015-17 have wounded Denver's depth, too. Hired after leading a 29th-ranked Dolphins defense, Joseph is now 1-9 in road games. The Broncos' defense, after Elway let Wade Phillips walk, is underperforming amid another losing skid.
Fantasy owners whose running backs have faced Detroit have thrived this season. Isaiah Crowell and Matt Breida each eclipsed 10 yards per carry on the Lions, and Ezekiel Elliott's 240 yards from scrimmage probably had Cowboys fans off the ledge in Week 4. The Lions rank last in run defense (145.8 yards per game). Matt Patricia hiring his old Syracuse boss, Paul Pasqualoni, as defensive coordinator was curious, considering the 69-year-old coach was Boston College's D-line coach the past two years and hadn't been an NFL DC since 2009. While the Darius Slay-led pass defense isn't bad, backs have ravaged the Lions thus far.
Tom Brady told a coach that Aaron Rodgers would " throw for 7,000 yards" if he had the Patriots' scheme and knowledge of opposing defenses. Rodgers does not have that in Green Bay. Mike McCarthy's scheme rarely wows anyone, often forcing Rodgers — sometimes by choice — into improvisations. McCarthy's team blew a 16-point lead in the 2014 NFC title game, and it's fair to wonder if the Packers have lowered their ceiling by staying the course. Now, McCarthy's offseason staff changes may have rankled Rodgers. As Green Bay's QB enters the back end of his prime, the Packers may need a coaching change after 13 years.
The Texans' patchwork blocking group has been as bad as it appeared this offseason. An O-line featuring Nick Martin, mid-level free agent guards and developmental tackles has allowed 53 quarterback hits — 11 more than any other team. Deshaun Watson has taken a beating so far this season, and if you strip away his 40.2 rushing yards per game, Houston's traditional ground game's not providing much. Neither Lamar Miller nor Alfred Blue average 4 yards per carry, and with Duane Brown in Seattle now, no help looks to be on the horizon.
Even with T.Y. Hilton healthy, the Colts don't have a deep receiving corps. When 2016's receiving leader missed Week 5 in New England, viewers saw a true skeleton crew. Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers comprise the Colts' Hilton sidekicks (though, Eric Ebron's been a nice surprise). Indianapolis' running back situation is even worse. Starter Marlon Mack hasn't debuted yet, and rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are unproven and delivering the inconsistency expected from first-year backs. Andrew Luck is improving, but he doesn't have much to work with right now.
The Jaguars' decision to not only extend Blake Bortles but bypass the chance to bring in any competition at quarterback through free agency or the draft continues to look bad. Bortles bombed in a big spot in Kansas City (four interceptions) and hasn't strung together quality starts. The Jags have a contention window shaped around their defense, and Bortles could play the lead role in blowing this opportunity. The fifth-year passer (seven INTs) is not justifying the team's commitment to him without a possible contingency plan.
Having traded All-Pro cornerback Marcus Peters, the Chiefs were not expected to deploy a strong secondary this season. But Patrick Mahomes' rapid rise has brightened the spotlight on Kansas City's embattled defense. The Chiefs are using slot corners Kendall Fuller, Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick as their top three cover men. Eric Berry has not practiced since early August, and would-be safety mate Daniel Sorensen may be out for the year. This group fared better against Blake Bortles, but it could spoil a dream season for a team that has a history of unique playoff letdowns.
Early in yet another season featuring considerable hype, the Chargers are trying to navigate their way back to the playoffs without the benefit of a true home-field advantage. Road fans envelop StubHub Center, clashing with the smattering of actual Chargers supporters. The Bolts are talented enough to be a playoff team, though injuries and kickers can intervene. But can they take advantage of the rest of Philip Rivers' prime without the usual boost other contending teams receive from their home venues? The decision to move to a city that didn't want them could hurt the Bolts' chances.
The weakness that most assumed the Rams would have remains. The money devoted to Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib and Lamarcus Joyner (and multiple extensions for offensive talent) halted the Rams from devoting much capital to their edge rushers. Donald and the defensive line anchor the pass rush, but with Talib out and Marcus Peters playing injured, the Rams not having a reliable edge rush hurts their defense. None of Los Angeles' outside linebackers (a contingent comprised of Day 3 picks and an undrafted free agent) has more than one sack — a rich man's problem for a 5-0 team, but it is an issue.
The Dolphins have worse starters than Ryan Tannehill. Their interior offensive line setup is flawed, and the player they hoped would be their No. 1 wide receiver, DeVante Parker, is on the trade block. But Tannehill is both injury-prone and far too incapable of leading the offense consistently for a former No. 8 overall pick in his seventh season. Tannehill's Total QBR (34.8) ranks 30th. Both the Patriots and Bengals stifled him, and Miami doesn't have enough talent to compensate for its lack of a reliable passer. Brock Osweiler residing behind Tannehill makes this situation dicier.
Although the Vikings are 2-2-1, they don't have too many flaws, but the obvious one is the offensive front. Nick Easton's injury depleted an already-shaky quintet — one that lost longtime cog Joe Berger to retirement. The Vikings' O-line ranks 26th in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards metric, isn't paving running lanes (31st in rushing) and has allowed 35 QB hits (eighth-most in the league). With a veteran roster, the Vikings make sense as a buyer for linemen prior to the trade deadline.
Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman possibly slowing down could pose a problem for the Patriots, but the centerpieces of New England's air attack look like they still have at least one more decent year left together. Defensively, the Pats are rounding into form as well. But the pass rush isn't getting home yet. New England's six sacks rank 30th. Of course, the Pats weren't particularly productive post-Chandler Jones in 2016 and won the Super Bowl. And Trey Flowers has grown into one of the NFL's best defensive ends. History shows the Pats will figure this out. But for now, it's lacking.
With the Rams and Chiefs receiving justified attention, the Saints' four-game win streak has hovered off the grid. But Drew Brees' team doesn't have many weaknesses — a change from the many horrid Saints defenses during Brees' tenure. An old problem's cropped up, however. New Orleans ranks 30th in pass defense (297.6 yards per game), and Marshon Lattimore's sidekicks, P.J. Williams and Ken Crawley, rate as two of Pro Football Focus' worst cornerbacks. With Patrick Robinson out for the year, this could be a major concern.
Dave Gettleman's remade offensive line is better than Jerry Reese's final group, but the money invested isn't showing yet. While rookie guard Will Hernandez (PFF's No. 4 overall guard) looks like a long-term starter, Patrick Omameh, replacement center John Greco and replacement right tackle Chad Wheeler are shrinking Eli Manning's throwing windows. The 37-year-old quarterback's played behind bad lines for years, helping to explain the gun-shy tendencies Odell Beckham Jr. (surely with Lil Wayne's approval) pointed out. Big Blue ranks 31st in adjusted line yards, and Manning dump offs are commonplace.
When the Jets are ready to contend again, it's unlikely most members of this starting offense will be on the team. Isaiah Crowell's historic Week 5 notwithstanding, the Jets don't have many reliable pieces on offense. Contract-year wideout Quincy Enunwa's 278 receiving yards lead the team. Terrelle Pryor is on a one-year deal, and Robby Anderson — the torching of Bradley Roby aside — did not do much of anything in September. The Jets' offensive line also doesn't have any standouts (30th in adjusted line yards) or surefire long-term cogs. Sam Darnold figures to have plenty of new huddlemates in 2019.
It's surprising the Raiders have the Bay Area fan support that they do. They traded the best player to come through Oakland this decade and are likely leaving town with a whimper. Jon Gruden's reacclimation to the NFL was going to take some time, but he assembled an updated version of his early-aughts Raiders rosters (except with much worse 30-somethings) in free agency and continues to bemoan his team's lack of pass rush, as Khalil Mack guns for another Defensive Player of the Year award. General manager Reggie McKenzie will depart soon, and Gruden's cavalcade of veterans being around seems counterproductive.
Although the Eagles' offensive line has allowed Nick Foles and Carson Wentz to be hit often (43 times, second-worst in the league), the defending Super Bowl champions still have proven talent there. The Jay Ajayi-less backfield is a problem, too. But Philly's pass defense let Fitzmagic continue, saw an injured Marcus Mariota steal a game and couldn't stop Kirk Cousins. The losses of Patrick Robinson and Rodney McLeod have applied more pressure on the team's young corners, who aren't getting the job done yet.
At some point, someone figures to have to answer for the Steelers' repeated issues defensively. Pittsburgh let offensive coordinator Todd Haley go in the offseason yet kept defensive coordinator Keith Butler in house. Butler's unit was dealt a brutal break in Ryan Shazier's likely career-ending injury, but this season's been a mess. The Steelers' defense ranks 29th, yet the team has invested repeated draft resources in the unit (five first-round picks, three second-rounders are on the roster). Mike Tomlin's specialty is defense, but his units have let down explosive offenses for years. This is on pace to happen again.
The much-hyped Jimmy Garoppolo-led team now looks like a contender for the 2019 No. 1 pick. C.J. Beathard being thrust back into a starting role will limit a 49ers team already short on high-end talent. But Beathard (Total QBR: 38.4, 28th) may have a rough go of it in his sophomore season — although, there could be a silver lining here. Beathard will acquire plenty of experience as a future backup/possible trade chip, and the 49ers will have a chance to add an impact talent in the '19 draft.
The 2017 season started with Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and K.J. Wright starting for an acclaimed Seahawks defense. But Bobby Wagner is carrying the Super Bowl units' legacy by himself at the moment. While Wright is due back soon, he's missed every game thus far. Thomas' ugly exit — and an explosive SI.com story pitting the brash defense against Russell Wilson — displays a team that has lost its catalyst for modern success. Seattle's actually faring decently with its new defense (14th in points, 13th in yards), but that hasn't been good enough.
Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky threw six touchdown passes on the Buccaneers' secondary by the 10-minute mark of the third quarter of their Week 4 game. The Bucs are dead last with 358.0 passing yards allowed per game; the Bears' 251 yards were by far the least Tampa Bay's ceded. PFF's graded Brent Grimes as its fourth-worst cornerback, and second-rounders M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis haven't been quick studies (though, that's difficult for corners in today's NFL). Chris Conte also became a Twitter joke for being stiff-armed while playing through an injury. Young talent resides here, but is in the developmental stage.
Corey Davis (26 catches, 361 yards) is showing the potential that made him a top-five draft pick despite coming from the Mid-American Conference. But whom else can Marcus Mariota trust? His top weapon since debuting is out for the season. Delanie Walker strung together four 800-plus-yard receiving seasons; hopeful heir apparent, Jonnu Smith, has two receptions for 21 yards in 2018. This is a limited passing game. While the Titans have done well to win shorthanded early, the lack of options for a still-uncertain passer is troubling.
Alex Smith has to hear about former backup Patrick Mahomes lighting up defenses with a full assortment of weapons weekly, while his aerial support in Washington doesn't measure up. Jamison Crowder is a fine slot receiver, and, when healthy Jordan Reed is an upper-echelon tight end. But they haven't been enough. Josh Doctson (48 receiving yards this season) isn't justifying his first-round draft slot, and Paul Richardson hasn't been consistent as an NFLer. Checkdowns to Chris Thompson are a key Redskins element, conjuring up bad Smith memories. But he hasn't been given enough help to succeed.
Sam Robinson is a sportswriter from Kansas City, Missouri. He primarily covers the NFL for Yardbarker. Moving from wildly injury-prone sprinter in the aughts to reporter in the 2010s, Sam set up camp in three time zones covering everything from high school water polo to Division II national championship games
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