ESPN believes Dolphins may have found a hidden gem in free agency but the odds say otherwise

The Miami Dolphins addressed a major roster need this week by reaching an agreement with former Detroit Lions safety Ifeatu Melifonwu on a one-year, $4 million deal.  

The move is one that helps offset, at least to some degree, the loss of Jevon Holland in free agency to the New York Giants.  However, ESPN's Ben Solak sees it as potentially more than that.  Solak listed the Melifonwu acquisition as his "the Inaugural Zach Baun Award" for out of nowhere signing that pays off during the season. 

ESPN sees Melifonwu as a fit in Anthony Weaver's system. 

Solak had this to say of the acquisition: 

This is being awarded for the small move that suddenly will become a big deal during the season. Ifeatu Melifonwu, who landed a one-year deal, is a talented athlete who switched from cornerback to safety during his career. He was never a full-time starter with the Lions, as he was in a loaded safety room and has dealt with major injuries. But a healthy Melifonwu should start for the Dolphins, where defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver needs a big box safety to blitz and play over tight ends.

Jevon Holland, who signed with the Giants, left big shoes to fill, and it's unlikely -- but not impossible -- that Melifonwu can do it on his own. If he can give them even 80% of what Holland did, he's suddenly a starting-caliber safety in his physical prime.

I don't disagree with the fit and the ability when healthy.  That's not my issue.  Melifonwu during the Lions' 2023 run to the NFC Championship game was a big part of their defense.  If that level of play and health translates for a full season, it would be a strong move. 

History says that's not too likely to happen for the whole season. 

However, at this point, the Dolphins should be keying on players with a history of staying healthy and producing.  Melifonwu does not check the healthy box. 

Melifonwu was drafted by the Lions in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft.  Since he hit the field, injuries have been an issue.  He went on injured reserve with a quad injury in 2021 and appeared in just 7 games.  He appeared in just 10 games in 2022 due to an ankle injury.  2023 was finally a breakthrough for him, as he appeared in 17 games and was a key part of the Lions' defense late in the year as Detroit won the NFC North for the first time in three decades.  In fact, Melifonwu pulled down the division-sealing interception.  In 17 games with 6 starts in 2023, he tallied 8 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks and a forced fumble.

However, the good times disappeared in 2024, as he suffered Achilles and finger injuries that limited him to just 3 games.  So, for those keeping score, that's just one season that went more than 10 games for Melifonwu.  

Some players just struggle with injuries.  It's just how it goes in the league, and so far Melifonwu has been one of those players.  And the Dolphins, unfortunately, have been a franchise where injuries occur more frequently than pretty much anywhere else.  

It would obviously be great if Melifonwu was healthy and productive for the Dolphins in 2024.  It could be an impactful move, as ESPN notes.  

I just wouldn't bet on it.