ESPN’s Computer Reveals 2026 NFL Super Bowl Favorite

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Los Angeles Rams sitting alone at the top of the NFL as the 2026 season nears, giving them a clear edge over every other team in the league.

The computer model assigns the Rams a 5.6 rating, well ahead of the Buffalo Bills, who rank second at 4.0. The gap leaves little doubt about which roster the system views as strongest on paper right now.

Matthew Stafford anchors that projection. The veteran quarterback and reigning NFL MVP completed 65% of his passes last season for 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Those numbers put him among the league’s most productive passers and form the foundation of the Rams’ high ranking.

Stafford will again work with a deep group of skill players. Davante Adams, Puka Nacua, tight end Colby Parkinson and running back Kyren Williams give the offense multiple ways to move the ball and score. The supporting cast remains one of the most complete units in the conference.

On defense, the Rams made a major addition this offseason by acquiring Myles Garrett from the Cleveland Browns. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year immediately raises the pass-rush potential and overall talent level of Sean McVay’s unit.

There is also the possibility that Aaron Donald could return before the opener. McVay addressed the situation carefully when asked about the longtime star.

“We’ll see how his body’s responding to some of the training and the way that he puts himself through the paces to know what it looks and feels like to be ready to take on what the rigors of an NFL season entail,” McVay said.

“He’s earned the right to be able to do it on his terms. And that’s why I think you guys are seeing us take this approach. But I did not ever really think this would be something, but I’m not going to sit here and act like I’m not excited about the possibility of it.”

The combination of Stafford’s production, the weapons around him and the defensive upgrades explains why the Football Power Index has separated the Rams from the rest of the field. The model measures how many points above or below average a team is expected to perform and updates regularly based on available information.

Yet the path will not be easy. The Rams open the season against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1 and then face the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills before Halloween arrives. That early stretch will test every part of the roster and leave little room for slow starts.

McVay’s teams have shown the ability to handle difficult schedules in the past, but this year’s slate arrives with heightened expectations. The FPI ranking sets a high bar that the coaching staff and players will have to meet on the field.

Buffalo remains the closest challenger according to the same model. The Bills’ second-place rating reflects their own strong roster, particularly on offense, but the numbers still place them more than a point and a half behind Los Angeles.

Other contenders will try to close the gap once games begin. Rankings at this stage of the year can shift quickly with injuries, unexpected performances or coaching adjustments. Still, the current projection leaves the Rams as the clear favorite in the eyes of ESPN’s system.

As training camps wind down and the regular season approaches, the focus turns to whether the Rams can translate their paper strength into consistent results. Stafford’s continued excellence, the integration of Garrett and the possible return of Donald will all factor into that equation.

The early schedule offers an immediate measuring stick. Wins against the 49ers, Broncos, Eagles and Bills would strengthen the case that the Football Power Index has it right. Anything less could invite questions about whether the ranking overestimates the roster.

For now, the computer model has spoken. The Los Angeles Rams hold the top spot and the clearest path, at least on paper, toward a Super Bowl run in the 2026 season.