Nov 16, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half of the game at Highmark Stadium. Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Expert panel's one-sided prediction for Bills vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football

Originally posted on Buffalo Bills on SI
By Ralph Ventre | Last updated Nov 20, 2025 12:26 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills haven't won in Houston since 2006, and quarterback Josh Allen has never lost a Thursday game.

Therefore, something's gotta give when the Bills (7-3) visit the Houston Texans (5-5) for a Week 12 edition of Thursday Night Football on Prime Video.

With Texans' quarterback CJ Stroud ruled out earlier in the week, the Bills have climbed to a 5.5-point road betting favorite. Instead Davis Mills will start for Houston. In 2021, the Bills defeated a Mills-led team by a 40-0 margin on a rainy day in Orchard Park.

“Very decisive, smart, knows where to go with the football. Based on the defensive looks, he's been in the league for a number of years now, and they're playing good football with him," said Bills' head coach Sean McDermott on Wednesday's during a WGR 550 AM radio appearance.

As for whether Mills can lead the home team to an upset over visiting Buffalo, Sports Illustrated's weekly prediction panel unanimously rejects the idea.

Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

All six MMQB experts selected the Bills to win the first game on the NFL's Week 12 slate. As always, the panel's picks are straight up. It's the third week in a row that all panelists have sided with Buffalo.

On paper, the Bills seemingly face a tall task going against the Texans' defense, which ranks first amongst NFL leaders (258.1). Then, there's the added challenge of preparing for such a formidable foe on a short week.

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

"Short week here for us, a lot of work, a lot of volume, in particular for the coaching staff.
The goal with the players is to get them as fresh as possible," said McDermott.

The Bills visit Houston for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on November 20 in a Prime Video exclusive. It's Buffalo's second TNF appearance this season.