Film Room: 3rd-Down Improvements Could Launch Bo Nix into the Stratosphere

Now, not all of the issues on third down, especially early on, were solely on Nix. Despite having a good game, it wasn’t perfect from wide receiver Courtland Sutton, and this drop was a blemish on the excellent performance he had. 

Even though it's 3rd-&-4 for the Broncos offense, Nix takes a calculated risk on the deep shot, getting a favorable look pre-snap. The offensive line holds up, and Sutton gets in a good position to make the play. 

The throw was as good as it could be from Nix, where he dropped it right into the bucket. With the inconsistencies Nix has had throwing it deep, this was a perfect throw. 

Sutton was off with his timing, and it could’ve been due to some late contact from Eagles cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, but the Broncos' receiver wants this ball back. Nix couldn’t have placed it any better for Sutton to make a big play early in the game. 

Play 2

On third-and-13, Nix is obliged to take a deeper shot. He enters the play with an all-or-nothing mentality. However, Nix was quick to target Evan Engram, despite the tight end being well-covered. 

A fraction of a second later, Nix has another target opening up underneath in wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr., who has space to potentially pick up the first down. All Mims would have to do is make one defender miss. 

Engram had bracket coverage on him, with the safety working downhill, which makes this a dangerous throw if completed. Nix needed to wait a split second longer and hit Mims. 

Even if Mims didn’t pick up the first down, it would have made a much easier field goal for Wil Lutz and even opened the door for Sean Payton to be aggressive on fourth down. This is one of those plays where Nix had the protection, but was still a bit rushed internally with getting the ball out. 

Play 3

On this final play, there seems to be a miscommunication between Broncos wide receiver Troy Franklin and Nix on the deep shot. So, this isn’t entirely on Nix, but there is no idea what would have happened had Franklin run the correct route. 

That said, this was a 3rd-&-5 play, and Nix needed to take what the defense gave him, which would’ve resulted in a first down. Instead, Nix locks onto Franklin quickly and doesn’t look away from him. 

The pressure wasn’t an issue as the offensive line held up, and when Nix released the ball, Franklin hadn’t won his route. Nix showed a lot of trust in Franklin to make the play, but the quarterback needed to come off Franklin and see Pat Bryant opening up underneath. 

If Nix sees Bryant, the only thing that would have prevented a first down from happening would have been a drop. There was also a good opportunity for Bryant to turn it into an even bigger play with space, a blocker in front of him, and one defender to miss. 

This play also highlights another issue of Nix, and that is an aversion to working the middle of the field. Payton and Broncos quarterbacks coach Davis Webb must underline this play for Nix as something that needs to be corrected. 

The Takeaway

Nix had one heck of a fourth quarter, but it was a rough game overall. While not all of the third-down issues were on him, two of the highlighted plays were on Nix. He doesn’t need to rush the process and be over-aggressive on third down. 

Great quarterbacks take calculated risks, as Nix did on the first play we examined, but they also know when to take what the defense gives them and live to fight another day, which isn’t what Nix does on the second and third plays. 

There's still considerable potential for the Broncos' offense to be one of the best in the NFL this season, but to achieve that, they need to improve on third down. While not all the issues are due to Nix, the steps toward improvement start with the quarterback.

That could launch Nix into being a top 10 quarterback in the NFL, and maybe even higher, as Payton himself has predicted. 

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