Five Questions Ahead of Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Matchup

Why can the Patriots win the Super Bowl?

Aside from getting the types of breaks which are often afforded to “teams of destiny,” New England has won with tenacity and playing disciplined football. While their defense has clearly benefited from the switch to an assertive philosophy, the Pats’ offense — led by quarterback Drake Maye — is finding success by utilizing explosive pass plays for the first time in recent memory.

Maye has put up MVP-caliber numbers by showcasing his arm strength working in tandem with the touch on the ball to make any throw required of him.  When the play breaks down, he possesses both the agility and instinct to turn off-script options into big gains.

With Maye’s abilities on offense, and the defense continuing to shut down their opponents, New England’s appears to have the pieces in place for a very deep playoff run — potentially culminating in a Super Bowl title. 

What’s a matchup you are looking forward to seeing?

While individual matchups involving players such as Pats’ cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Texans’ receiver Christian Kirk are likely to catch the eye of both the fans and media alike, the most intriguing matchup may be Drake Maye facing off against all three levels of the Texans defense. Houston fields the NFL’s top preventive unit.

To find any semblance of success against them, the Pats’ newly-minted All Pro quarterback must rid himself of the ball early — by either making the throw before the three-step, or by scrambling. Should New England find success in holding the line, expect Maye and company to test the Texans’ secondary with a deep passing attack.

Despite their front seven supremacy, Houston ranks only 14th in explosive pass play rate allowed. Accordingly, receivers Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte could help to take some of the workload pressure off of running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson.  

If the Pats were to lose, what would be the reason why?

If the Patriots are unable to marginally disrupt Houston’s ability to control the line of scrimmage, it will be a long afternoon and evening for the home team in Foxborough. The Patriots’ offensive line must counteract the Texans’ pressure by making every effort to block it from the outset.

In their matchup against the Chargers, the Pats o-line failed to win the battle in the trenches — as the Bolts produced 12 total pressures and held the Patriots to an average 38% rushing success rate. In particular, rookie left tackle Will Campbell (two sacks, six total pressures) and left guard Jared Wilson (two sacks, four total pressures) struggled to keep pace with L.A.’s defensive front.

New England must get better production from their left side of the line to give Maye the time and freedom to operate. Otherwise, they will not win this game. 

What’s your prediction for the game?

While the cliche of “best team we’ve faced all season” tends to be overused in professional sports, it applies for the Patriots in relation to the Texans. New England will be given all they can handle in all three of the game’s phases. Still, one should expect the Pats to adopt a similar strategy to what they used against the Chargers last week.

Offensively, Maye and company will need to make just enough plays against one of the NFL's best defenses, while the Patriots defense must seize its chances to hold the Texans offense in check. If they can do that, they will punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2019. 

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 23, Texans 20