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Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures: 2023 Coach of the Year odds and best bets

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated May 19, 2023 5:52 PM ET

We've covered the varying player award futures available for NFL bettors, and all that remains in the market is a look into Coach of the Year. A bet here can be multi-layered. You're looking to project team success, first and foremost, but also trying to find the coach and team most likely to out-perform expectations.

This award rarely goes to the coach of the best team. It goes to the coach of the team that not many people were considering a threat, or a coach of the team that lacks high-end talent yet still found a way to win.

Take Andy Reid. Reid has been at the helm of this Chiefs run, yet has never won a Coach of the Year award with Kansas City. Having the best player in the world and consistently winning the division certainly makes him an easy option to gloss over. So, let's jump into the market and see where the value may lie.

2023 Coach of the Year odds

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel.

Dan Campbell, Detroit (+1000)
Matt Eberflus, Chicago (+1200)
Sean Payton, Denver (+1200)
DeMeco Ryans, Houston (+1700)
Robert Saleh, NY Jets (+1800)
Matt Lafleur, Green Bay (+1800)
Arthur Smith, Atlanta (+1800)
Pete Carroll, Seattle (+2000)
Brandon Staley, LA Chargers (+2000)
Mike McDaniel, Miami (+2000)
Doug Pederson, Jacksonville (+2000)
Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia (+2200)
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis (+2200)
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland (+2500)
John Harbaugh, Baltimore (+2500)

The above is the top 15, which excludes notable names like the 2022 Coach of the Year Brian Daboll (+2800), the aforementioned Andy Reid (+5000) and Bill Belichick (+3000).

The interesting dynamic of this award is how much it differs from Super Bowl odds. Of the top six teams favored to hoist the Lombardi next February (Kansas City, Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Dallas) only Nick Sirianni of Philly is represented above, which seems curious since he hardly gathered any momentum during the Eagles' 14-3 season last year.

The mold of recent Coach of the Year winners

Last season, Brian Daboll brought home the honors, leading the Giants to a 9-7-1 record and a Wild Card berth. The year prior, New York went just 4-13, and this was Daboll's first year with the team.

The 2021 winner was Mike Vrabel, who led the Titans to a 12-5 record, having gaining popularity for Tennessee's playoff run the year prior.

Kevin Stefanski won in 2020 in his first year with Cleveland, turning a 6-10 team into an 11-5 playoff squad.

John Harbaugh led the Ravens to a 14-2 record in 2019, the best record in the NFL.

Matt Nagy and Sean McVay won in the two years prior, both in their first years with their respective teams, and each turning a losing culture into double-digit wins and a playoff berth.

Two bets for 2023 Coach of the Year

As shown above, there are varying ways you can bring home this award, but the most common has been a coach in his first year that turns a bad team into a playoff participant. It's either that archetype, or a team that has shown past postseason success coming out the following year as one of the most dominant teams in the league.

We're seeing a few suitable candidates worth backing.

Sean Payton +1200

To call 2022 a disappointment for Denver would be a bit of an understatement. Expectations were high for the Broncos after acquiring Russell Wilson, but the season was a disaster for all, with Wilson struggling mightily and the Broncos offense failing to get anything going en route to a 5-12 season and a last-place finish in the AFC West.

Out went Nathaniel Hackett, and in comes former Super Bowl champion and 2006 Coach of the Year Sean Payton.

If Payton comes in and not only gets Denver into the playoffs in a packed AFC, but also gets Wilson back on track, he feels like a logical choice for this award. The AFC is the far superior conference with quarterback talent, and many are down on Wilson after what we saw in 2022. Payton and Drew Brees had plenty of success with the passing game in New Orleans, and getting Wilson back on the map as an elite quarterback, something we know is still there deep down, would be quite the feather in his cap.

Nick Sirianni +2200

The standard has been set in Philadelphia. Nick Sirianni led the Eagles to the playoffs in his first year, and helped steer them to a Super Bowl berth in Year Two.

Anything short of a Super Bowl appearance is likely a disappointment at this point, and with the Eagles still very much stacked, they should be able to run through the lowly NFC.

A potential plus for Sirianni is that he lost both his offensive and defensive coordinators from his first two seasons. If he and the Eagles don't miss a beat and continue dominating the conference, that is going to be quite the positive for the Philly head coach. If a 14-3 season wasn't good enough last year, we likely need a 15-2 season for the Eagles for Sirianni to win this. After what we saw from Jalen Hurts and this team in 2022, we wouldn't bet against it.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

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