NFL picks: Week 14

The benching of Blake Bortles apparently didn't help the Jags offense, but it motivated the defense, which pitched a shutout vs. the Colts. They have a short turnaround in Week 14 with Leonard Fournette returning from suspension, and the Titans are 4-1 at home this season. If Tennessee can do anything to get on the board, it could be enough vs. Cody Kessler.

Houston has a league-leading nine straight wins and has won their last three home games by 16 or more points. Meanwhile, the Colts finally hit a wall last week in a 6-0 loss at Jacksonville. The Texans defensive line, led by J.J. Watt, has the ability to disrupt what has been an elite pass blocking offensive line in Indy recently.

Green Bay took a brutal loss vs. Arizona last week, and have turned the page on the Mike McCarthy era. These teams are a combined 7-16-1 against the spread this season and coming off terrible games, but there's at least reason for the Packers to fight for a new coach.

Washington is a mess, now down to No. 3 quarterback Mark Sanchez, while the Giants are coming off a huge win vs. Chicago. It's likely New York will focus on stopping Adrian Peterson and forcing Sanchez to throw, and based on his poor performance on Monday night, the line will likely continue to move in New York's favor this week.

Sam Darnold's status is still up in the air, but New York might be better with Josh McCown under center, as they almost took down the Titans last week. Buffalo tore the Jets apart 41-10 just three weeks ago, so it's surprising the spread is so small.

Panthers head coach Ron Rivera finally took matters into his own hands this week after an embarrassing showing at Tampa Bay, and will call the defensive plays. Houston as able to trick Baker Mayfield last week, and Rivera should have the ability to do the same with a new voice. Of course, Cam Newton was perhaps the biggest reason for last week's loss after throwing four picks.

The Chiefs survived without Kareem Hunt last week but suffered only their third loss against the spread. The running game clearly wasn't as explosive, so the pressure is on Patrick Mahomes against one of the league's top defenses. It seems likely Lamar Jackson will get another start after three straight wins, even with Joe Flacco nearly ready to return, and the Chiefs defense is getting smoked on the ground, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. As Arizona showed a few weeks ago, getting to Mahomes and running the ball is a recipe to keep the game close against the Chiefs.

The Saints laid an egg at Dallas on Thursday night, but they've had extra time to prepare for Tampa Bay. Jameis Winston has played well recently, but the Bucs won by getting four picks vs. Cam Newton last week. That's very unlikely to happen against Drew Brees, who has thrown three picks for the entire season.

Bill Belichick is a bettor's dream. After starting the year 1-2 against the spread, New England has won seven of nine. The Patriots easily covered vs. Miami in Week 4 (38-7) and have covered in four of their last five games against the Dolphins.

Denver is riding high with three big wins in a row, two coming on the road. San Francisco does pose a bit of an issue against Denver's great running game, allowing only 4.2 yards per carry, and the Broncos will be without top corner Chris Harris Jr. Unfortunately, the 49ers offense is buried on the depth chart at quarterback and running back themselves.

The Chargers have momentum after a huge come-from-behind victory at Pittsburgh last week, and face a Bengals team that's in shambles after losing Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Jeff Driskel showed nothing at Denver last week, managing only 10 points.

Dallas is the flavor of the week after beating New Orleans and have four straight wins. Still, Philly trails in the NFC East by only one game and have two straight wins. The problem is that they struggle to stop the run, allowing 4.9 yards per run and 151 yards against Ezekiel Elliott in the teams' first game of the year.

Pittsburgh took a brutal loss against the Chargers last week, but Mike Tomlin's team is 38-25 (60.3%) against the spread after losses since he took over in 2007, according to TeamRankings.com. Oakland's offense performed well against the Chiefs last week, but lack much firepower beyond Jared Cook.

Can Arizona make it two in a row? After upsetting the Packers on the road last week, they return home to face Detroit. Matthew Stafford has really struggled recently, but Josh Rosen has been even worse, completing just 11-of-26 passes against Green Bay and 54.2% for his season. The Cardinals also lost playmaker Christian Kirk for the year last week. Detroit's defense should have enough to rebound.

Chicago is expected to get Mitchell Trubisky back from injury after losing at the Giants last week. The Chiefs offense torched the Rams defense, and former KC assistant Matt Nagy should be able to put together a similar gameplan. The problem will be stopping the Rams offense, particularly an offense like the Rams that has consistently protected the ball (fourth fewest giveaways).

This game has huge playoff implications for both teams. It's worth noting that the Vikings after 4-0 against the spread after losses this season, but Seattle is 7-3-2 overall, third best in the league. The Seahawks are also a whopping 45-28-1 (61.6%) at home against the spread during Pete Carroll's tenure (since 2010).