NFL Week 10 betting guide, Part 1

We're more than halfway through the NFL season, so it's time to start focusing on the playoff races in each conference. There are a few crucial matchups on this week's slate that could go a long way in determining division winners and wild-card teams. Let's dive into the action and check out our betting looks and predictions for every game in Week 10. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens 

Thursday, Nov. 7, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Ravens -6
Total: 53

If this game is anything like the first matchup between these AFC North rivals, we're in for a fun Thursday night. The Bengals and Ravens combined to score 79 points in Baltimore's overtime victory in Week 5. Sportsbooks are expecting another high-scoring game considering both teams rank in the top seven in points per game and the bottom 10 in points allowed. 

Tee Higgins still hasn't practiced since injuring his quad two weeks ago, and he might miss his third straight game. The Bengals are 3-2 this season with Higgins on the field and 1-3 without him. 

Mismatch to exploit: Mike Gesicki vs. Ravens secondary

Gesicki has snagged 12 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns over the last two weeks with Higgins inactive, and the Ravens give up the most passing yards per game in the NFL. Check out his receiving yards over if Higgins is ruled out.

Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 27

New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, Nov. 10, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
Spread: Giants -5.5
Total: 40.5

We head to Munich for the fifth and final international game of the season, and the German fans may not fall in love with the NFL after watching these two teams face off. The Giants and Panthers rank dead last and 29th, respectively, in the NFL in points per game this season.

Carolina did notch its second win of the year last week, but that had more to do with the New Orleans Saints' incompetence. The Panthers were still outgained, 427-246, by the Saints, which explains why they're nearly touchdown underdogs to a Giants team averaging 12.5 points over their last four games.

Mismatch to exploit: Tyrone Tracy vs. Panthers run defense

Tracy has taken over this Giants backfield, and he has a chance to explode against Carolina's 32nd-ranked run defense. Take a look at his rushing yards over. 

Prediction: Giants 24, Panthers 16

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Chiefs -8.5
Total: 41.5

The Chiefs kept their undefeated season alive with an overtime victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. The scariest takeaway from the win is that Patrick Mahomes and DeAndre Hopkins seem to have found a groove, as the duo hooked up eight times for 86 yards and two touchdowns. 

As for the Broncos, they got a dose of reality in their 41-10 loss to the Ravens last week. It turns out beating up on the Saints, Panthers and Raiders doesn't make you a great team. Can Denver flip that narrative with a marquee win against the two-time reigning champs?

Mismatch to exploit: Trent McDuffie vs. Courtland Sutton

Sutton has dominated the Ravens and Panthers in recent weeks, but they have two of the worst secondaries in the league. McDuffie is a different animal, so take a look at Sutton's under receiving yards. 

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Broncos 18

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Bears -6
Total: 39

There aren't many positives to take from New England's season so far, but Drake Maye is surely one of them. The rookie quarterback is completing 65.6 percent of his passes and has thrown six touchdowns in his three full starts, and he's done so behind a terrible offensive line and with the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL. 

Chicago's offense hasn't been much better, as it ranks 31st in the NFL in sacks allowed per game and 30th in yards per play. Caleb Williams, Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron all share the blame. The offense has a chance to get back on track against a Patriots defense that ranks 28th in sack rate and 26th in yards allowed per play.

Mismatch to exploit: D'Andre Swift vs. Patriots run defense

Swift has showcased his big-play ability all season, and the Patriots are giving up 160.5 rushing yards per game over their last four. Check out Swift's rushing prop over.

Prediction: Bears 24, Patriots 17

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bills -4
Total: 46.5

The Colts have a mess of a quarterback situation with Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco. Richardson clearly isn't an NFL-level passer yet, but Flacco couldn't even push the offense into the red zone once against the Vikings last week. Shane Steichen has some tough decisions to make the rest of the season. 

As for the Bills, they keep rolling along with four straight wins. Josh Allen should be able to shred a Colts defense that struggles to generate pressure, gives up explosive plays on the ground and in the air and can't get off the field on third down.

Mismatch to exploit: Jonathan Taylor vs. Bills run defense

The Colts need to pound the rock with the passing game struggling, and the Bills rank 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per rush. Give a look to Taylor's over rushing yards. 

Prediction: Bills 27, Colts 24

Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Vikings -5
Total: 45

The Jaguars continue to get shredded through the air, and Trevor Lawrence completed just 51.6 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions in his worst game of the season last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. This team has talent, but it makes too many mistakes to win close games.

The Vikings haven't been the same team since their bye week. Minnesota is 1-2 in its last two games, and Sam Darnold almost blew last week's game against the Colts with two bad interceptions. Thankfully, the defense, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL in DVOA, is good enough to make up for those mistakes. 

Mismatch to exploit: Trevor Lawrence vs. Vikings blitz

Lawrence struggles under pressure, and Brian Flores is the best in the business at dialing up blitzes. Look for Lawrence to throw a pick or Minnesota's defense to score a touchdown on a turnover.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Jaguars 23

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, Nov. 10, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: 49ers -5.5
Total: 50.5

The 49ers might have a familiar face back on the field, as star running back Christian McCaffrey finally returned to practice this week after missing the first eight games of the season. He'll provide a huge boost to this offense missing Brandon Aiyuk. 

Speaking of missing players, the Buccaneers are still playing without Chris Godwin (out for the season) and Mike Evans. Tight end Cade Otton has stepped up with 25 catches, 258 yards and three touchdowns over the last three games, but the young backup receivers look overmatched. 

Mismatch to exploit: George Kittle vs. Buccaneers secondary

Tight ends have dominated the Bucs all year, and Travis Kelce just torched them for 100 yards on 14 catches. Look for Kittle to clear his receptions and receiving yards props.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Buccaneers 21