NFL Week 18: Picks and preview

TV: ESPN        Line: Kansas City -10.5

The Chiefs suffered a damaging loss to Cincinnati, losing control of the AFC’s top seed and the conference’s only bye in the process. A win and a Titans loss or tie would give Kansas City the top seed. Otherwise, they’ll have to deal with a dangerous opponent on Wild Card weekend. Denver fought valiantly, particularly after the Von Miller trade, but the Broncos were done in by their lack of dynamic quarterback play. Perhaps Aaron Rodgers might want to play in orange and blue next season? It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world and would make Denver an instant contender.

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-While he’s usually thought of as a big-play threat, Tyreek Hill’s 110 catches are a career-high and rank third in the NFL this season. 

-Justin Simmons continues to be one of the NFL’s most underrated defensive backs. He’s one of only three players in the NFL (Quandre Diggs and J.C. Jackson) with 5+ interceptions each of the past two seasons.

The pick: Chiefs 40 Broncos 17

TV: ESPN        Line: Dallas -7

The Cowboys are a hard team to figure, are they not? They can look like the best team in the league one week, then mediocre or at least disappointing the next. Last week against Arizona would be an example of the latter. Micah Parsons is a massively disruptive defensive force, but Dallas will go as far as their offense takes them. The Eagles have figured out their identity – strong running and timely passing – and while it doesn’t always look impressive, it is effective. Philly has won six of seven to get into the playoffs, and Nick Sirianni would doubtless love to get through this game healthy above all else.

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-With 51 scrimmage yards, Ezekiel Elliott will become just the second running back in NFL history ( LaDainian Tomlinson) with 1,250+ scrimmage yards and 8+ touchdowns in each of his first six seasons.

-Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle are grabbing many of the headlines, but DeVonta Smith has produced a strong rookie season. Smith is one of three rookies, along with Chase and Waddle, with 60+ catches and 5+ receiving touchdowns this season.

The pick: Cowboys 26 Eagles 20

TV: CBS        Line: Baltimore -5

Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game saw the quarterback set an NFL record, just not the kind he wanted. Even though the Steelers won, his 123 passing yards were the fewest in league history for a passer with as many completions (24) and attempts (46). He and the Steelers need a win and a Colts loss, or else his career ends where it began. Baltimore looks like they’ll be relying on Tyler Huntley again this week, but they need far more help than do the Steelers. Baltimore must win and get losses by the Colts, Browns, Chargers, and Dolphins, or else their 8-3 start will have gone for naught.

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-Najee Harris’ 206 yards from scrimmage in Pittsburgh’s 26-14 win over the Browns was the first game with 200+ scrimmage yards by any rookie this season.

-Huntley has been solid in two of his last three appearances. He has a 70+ completion percentage in two of those games and has run for 50+ yards in each of his last two starts.

The pick: Ravens 21 Steelers 20

TV: FOX        Line: Cleveland -6

The Bengals will know by Saturday evening whether or not they can secure the AFC’s top seed, but they’re clearly aware of what a longshot it is, as Joe Burrow won’t be starting in this game. Even though they’ll have to win three games to get to the Super Bowl, Cincy’s explosive offense makes them a team no one wants to see. The Browns? They’re a mess. Baker Mayfield is having surgery to repair his left shoulder, which means Case Keenum will start. Both of those things should have happened several weeks ago. That they haven’t is an indictment of Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry.

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-Burrow and Cincinnati’s talented receivers have garnered much of the attention this season, but Joe Mixon is one of only two running backs (Jonathan Taylor) with 1,500+ scrimmage yards and 15+ touchdowns this season.

-Keenum has just two career starts against Cincinnati, but both have gone well. He has 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 122.1 rating in those two games.

The pick: Browns 24 Bengals 20

TV: FOX        Line: Green Bay -3.5

Despite Green Bay having locked up the top seed in the NFC, Aaron Rodgers is still going to play in this game. One assumes this is a calculated risk by the Packers, who want to get the likely league MVP some reps in advance of the team’s extended break. Or maybe the Packers wanted to sit him and Rodgers said no. Who knows? Detroit has continued to play hard all season, which is part of the reason that Dan Campbell seems to have avoided any first-year embarrassments other than the team’s putrid record. The Lions are short on talent, but a good draft and savvy free-agent maneuvering could have them on the way up sooner rather than later.

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-Rodgers needs just 23 yards to become the sixth player with 10 4,000-yard passing seasons and has 2+ touchdown passes and 0 interceptions in six straight games, tied for the second-longest such streak in league history.

-Jared Goff's status is in question, but he has been an above-average passer at home this year. He has 11 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions for a 97.5 passer rating in 7 home starts this season.

The pick: Lions 24 Packers 20

TV: FOX        Line: Minnesota -4

What’s the proper outlook here? I’d rather be a Bears fan than a Vikings fan, I know that much. Chicago has to figure out their coaching situation, but in Justin Fields, they have a player who has flashed superstar potential on numerous occasions this season. There is a lot of work to do, but there is hope. Minnesota? They know they can get to the playoffs with Kirk Cousins around, but they also know they can’t win a championship with him. That would be the definition of football purgatory, and the Vikings ought to recognize the situation for what it is and do a little housecleaning. That should start with Mike Zimmer, whose time has clearly run its course.

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-Darnell Mooney has been a surprise bright spot for the Bears. He already has a career-high 69 receptions and needs 71 yards for his first 1,000-yard season.

-Dalvin Cook has been a model of consistency. The fifth-year runner from Florida State is the only player in the NFL with 1,300+ scrimmage yards in each of the last three seasons.

The pick: Vikings 27 Bears 20

TV: FOX        Line: Washington -7

Lots went wrong for the Football Team (soon to be Admirals, if you trust Boomer Esiason) this season, but their defense cratering might have been the biggest issue. Some of that was caused by an offense that kept giving the ball away (Washington has just two turnover-free games this year) but most of it was just inconsistent performance. As for New York? Well, Joe Judge certainly had a strange rant after last week’s loss, continuing to insist that the team’s culture is in a good place and that those on the outside don’t see the progress being made, but the fact of the matter is that he’s 10-22 as head coach, and fans only care about “culture” if a team is winning.

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-Antonio Gibson is already at a career-high 1,180 yards from scrimmage and is one of just three NFC running backs (Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara) with 1,000+ scrimmage yards and 9+ combined touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.

-Logan Ryan is looking for his third-straight game with a pass defensed, and is the only defensive back with 8+ passes defensed in each of the last seven seasons.

The pick: Washington Football Team 20 Giants 16

TV: CBS        Line: Indianapolis -15

It’s a pretty simple equation for the Colts. If they win, they’re in. If they lose, things get significantly more complicated. Indy created this situation for themselves by losing to the Raiders last week, but luckily for them, they get to play the NFL’s version of an FCS school in the form of Jacksonville. The Jaguars have lost their three post-Urban Meyer games by an average of 19.3 points. Trevor Lawrence’s first year has accomplished almost nothing, developmentally, but the one bright spot is that his talent is still obvious, and Jacksonville will have its pick of qualified candidates to fill the head-coaching vacancy.

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-Jonathan Taylor’s monster season continues to put him in the history books. He is not only the first player in Colts history with 2,000+ scrimmage yards and 20+ touchdowns in a single season, but at 22 is the youngest player in NFL history to accomplish the feat.

-Lawrence’s rookie season has mostly been a disaster, and his development hasn’t gone as planned, but despite that, his 3,418 yards are already the most ever by a Jaguars rookie quarterback.

The pick: Colts 35 Jaguars 13

TV: CBS        Line: Tennessee -10.5

Things are starting to come up Titans. First, the Bengals beat the Chiefs, putting Tennessee back in the AFC’s top spot, and now it appears that Derrick Henry could return. Winning this game and securing a first-round bye would greatly help that scenario become a reality. The Texans would no doubt love to play spoiler and end their season on a high note, but more intriguing than that is the play of rookie Davis Mills. He’s quietly been better than every rookie passer other than Mac Jones, and while he’s not the dynamic like Deshaun Watson, has shown enough that Houston might want to beef up other areas of their roster in the draft, and give him a chance to be their quarterback of the future.

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-Ryan Tannehill needs just 53 passing yards to join Warren Moon as the only players in Titans/Oilers franchise history with 3,500+ passing yards in consecutive seasons. 

-Mills has settled in nicely at home this year. Though the Texans have struggled mightily, he has 9 touchdowns and just 1 interception in five home starts this season and has a 106.2 passer rating in those games.

The pick: Titans 30 Texans 23

TV: FOX        Line: New Orleans -4.5

The Saints staved off the Grim Reaper with last week’s win over the Panthers, and now they have a very plausible path to the playoffs; New Orleans needs to win this game and have San Francisco lose to the Rams. Fortunately for Sean Payton’s team, the Rams still have something to play for, namely the NFC West title and the NFC’s second seed. Atlanta could certainly play spoiler, and in fact, already beat the Saints earlier this year on the strength of a late rally, but the Falcons are otherwise at a crossroads. The question is simple: eat Matt Ryan’s huge dead cap number and move on, or run it back one more time? I know what I’d do.

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-The Saints have struggled to find consistent receiving threats all season, but Marquez Callaway has posted career highs in receptions (46), receiving yards (698), and receiving touchdowns (6) in 2021.

-Kyle Pitts became just the second tight end, joining Mike Ditka (1,076 in 1961) to pile up at least 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. He is also just the third rookie tight end ( Keith Jackson and Jeremy Shockey) with 65+ receptions.

The pick: Falcons 23 Saints 20

TV: CBS        Line: Buffalo -16

New York has been truly dreadful this season, though the Jets came very close to pulling off the upset of the year against Tampa Bay last week. The situation in New York is very similar to what’s happening in Jacksonville; Zach Wilson didn’t show much as a rookie and the team was miserable. One upshot: unlike Jacksonville, the Jets seem to have a reasonably competent coach. Buffalo has won three in a row, all of them by double digits, and still has to win to ensure a division title, but Josh Allen’s late-season surge doubtless has the Bills thinking bigger than the AFC East. As well they should; this is still a team with the NFL’s third-best scoring offense and second-best scoring defense.

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-The Jets have suffered through a lost season, but veteran linebacker C.J. Mosley is having a solid year. He ranks fifth in the NFL with a career-high 155 tackles and is coming off his fifth-straight game with at least 10 tackles.

-Devin Singletary needs just 14 yards from scrimmage to become the first Bills running back with 1,000+ since 2017. Singletary also has a rushing touchdown in three straight games.

The pick: Bills 40 Jets 20

TV: FOX        Line: Los Angeles -4.5

Trey Lance has gotten most of the first-team reps at quarterback this week, but Kyle Shanahan has insisted that Jimmy Garoppolo will start if he’s healthy enough. Problem is, he doesn’t seem like he’ll be healthy enough. If San Francisco wins, they’re in. Even if they can also get in if New Orleans loses to Atlanta. The Rams still haven’t clinched the NFC West, but a win would take care of that. If Good Matthew Stafford shows up, Los Angeles can win the Super Bowl. Thing is, Bad Matthew Stafford has been hanging around lately, with 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in his last three games.

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-Deebo Samuel is the only player in NFL history with 1,300+ receiving yards and 300+ rushing yards in a single season. He also needs one more rushing touchdown to break a tie with Lenny Moore (7 in 1961) for the most rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver in a single season.

-Von Miller had 2 sacks last week and is one of five players with 20+ games of 2+ sacks since 2011. He also leads all active players in sacks, with 113.5.

The pick: 49ers 28 Rams 21

TV: CBS        Line: New England -6.5

New England still has a shot to win the AFC East, but given that such a scenario relies on a Jets win, it’s a big longshot. Still, the Pats are playoff-bound, but the degree to which they can make noise hinges on matchups. If the Patriots and Bills both win, they’ll likely have a first-round rubber match with Buffalo. Sign me up. The Dolphins turned into a pumpkin against good competition, but Brian Flores’ team did show plenty of resilience in winning seven straight after a 1-7 start, but the hole they dug was too big to overcome. The burning question in Miami is simple: did Tua Tagovailoa do enough to convince the team that he’s a franchise quarterback?

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-J.C. Jackson’s interception last week gave him 25 for his career, making him just the fourth player in the Super Bowl era with 25+ interceptions in his first four seasons.

-Tagovailoa’s accuracy has been impressive in the pros. He has nine games with a 70+ completion percentage (min. 20 attempts), tied for the most-ever by a quarterback in his first 20 career starts.

The pick: Dolphins 24 Patriots 16

TV: FOX        Line: Arizona -7

It seems like Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll have a much better relationship than has been reported, so perhaps the rumors of Wilson’s imminent departure are just idle chatter and nothing with legs. You could understand if Wilson was mad at Carroll, given the middling returns on Seattle’s heavy draft investments on defense. Arizona can win the NFC West with a win and a Los Angeles loss to San Francisco, so the Cardinals still have something to play for. Arizona’s win over Dallas last week was Kyler Murray at his best, and against a fellow playoff team. It was also a needed tonic after three straight losses.

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-Wilson’s 112 combined postseason and regular-season wins are tied with Peyton Manning for the most wins by a quarterback in his first ten seasons, so Wilson can stand alone at the top if Seattle springs the upset here.

-Chandler Jones had 2 tackles for loss and a forced fumble last week, and since 2012, his 106.5 sacks and 32 forced fumbles are both tops in the entire NFL. He’s also looking for his third game in a row against Seattle with 2+ sacks.

The pick: Cardinals 31 Seahawks 27

TV: CBS        Line: Tampa Bay -8

There are two questions that matter with the Panthers: what is Matt Rhule’s future, and what are the team’s plans at quarterback. The second question is more important than the first, but both are still pressing issues that owner David Tepper will want to have addressed as soon as possible. The Bucs are trying to deal with the ongoing distraction that is Antonio Brown’s exit-not-an-exit from the franchise, one that has seen him take to social media to chastise Bruce Arians, and Tom Brady’s trainer Alex Guerrero. In a more tangible sense, Brown’s absence from the offense, coupled with Chris Godwin’s injury, is going to make Brady’s life – and a Super Bowl repeat – much more difficult.

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-Believe it or not, Haason Reddick is one of just two linebackers (T.J. Watt) with 11+ sacks in each of the last two seasons. Reddick has also posted three sacks in his last four road games.

-Mike Evans needs just 44 yards to post his eighth-straight season with 1,000+ receiving yards, a continuation of an NFL record he set last year when he notched his seventh in a row to start his career.

The pick: Buccaneers 34 Panthers 14

TV: NBC        Line: Los Angeles -3

The NFL’s doomsday scenario involved the Colts losing, the Steelers winning, and the Chargers and Raiders deciding to play for a tie, as said result would get both teams into the postseason at Pittsburgh’s expense. Brandon Staley has already stated publicly that he would never coach for such an outcome, but isn’t that what a canny, analytically-minded coach would say to throw everyone off the scent? As for the Raiders, their win in Indianapolis last week made this situation possible, and they seem to have a never-say-die vibe about them this year. Of course, real Raiders fans know that all of this means that a crushing loss here is the most likely outcome.

Look smart to your friends: 

-Keenan Allen rarely gets mentioned when the best wide receivers in the NFL are being discussed, but he is a model of consistency, and is the only player in the NFL with 100+ catches in each of the past three seasons.

-The Raiders’ defense takes a lot of criticism, but Denzel Perryman is a tackling machine in the middle. He had 12 tackles and a tackle for loss when the teams met in Week 4, and his 145 tackles this season are by far a career-high, dwarfing the 73 he posted in his rookie year.

The pick: Chargers 31 Raiders 30