Playoff Projections: Can the Raiders Make the Postseason?

Sep 20, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) and guard Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) celebrate after a safety against the Los Angeles Chargers in the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Playoff Projections: Can the Raiders Make the Postseason?

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Tyler Bischoff | Last updated Sep 23, 2026 9:00 AM ET

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The Klint Kubiak era has started off strong in Las Vegas. If the Raiders knock off the Saints on Sunday, Kubiak will match Pete Carroll’s win total from last season.

The 2-0 start has done more than just provide optimism for the future. The current record means the Raiders could be fighting for a playoff spot this season.

What the Analytics Say

FTN Fantasy: 30 percent

FTN Fantasy uses DVOA to project the rest of the NFL season and spits out probabilities for each team to make the playoffs. With two wins already down, the Raiders sit with a 30 percent chance to make it to the postseason.

With the Chargers sitting at 0-2, Las Vegas has climbed out of the basement of the AFC West. But the Chiefs and Broncos are still more likely to make the playoffs than the Raiders, as they sit at 81.5 percent and 58.3 percent, respectively.

Amazingly, the Raiders have an 11.4 percent chance to win the division, according to FTN fantasy. That is still behind Kansas City and Denver, but it is remarkable that the Raiders have that good of a chance.

Ultimately though, DVOA projects the Raiders’ final win total at 7.7. While an 8-9 could be enough to sneak into the playoffs, the Raiders will need to outperform even more to play in the postseason.

The Athletic: 22 percent

The Athletic is less optimistic about the Raiders’ chances, giving Las Vegas just a 22 percent chance.

Similar to DVOA, The Athletic has the Raiders most likely final record at 7-10, with that occurring 21 percent of the time. An 8-9 record has a 20 percent chance of happening.

The Raiders have jumped the Chargers in both models, but sit ninth in the AFC in playoff odds, behind two teams from every division.

Starting the season 2-0 is already a success for the Raiders. But finding a way to maintain the victories over the course of the season will prove to be difficult. The Dolphins may end up as the worst team in the NFL, and the Chargers could be picking in the top 10 of the NFL draft.

Both FTN Fantasy and The Athletic project the Raiders to go either 5-10 or 6-9 over the final 15 games of the season.

After the Raiders take on the Saints, they will play the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams in succession. That will be a true proving ground for the Raiders’ playoff hopes.