Lines are starting to trickle out for Sunday's games in the NFL. Here's three spots that look good for a long play. In case you missed it, I put together a resource for finding some vulnerable defenses earlier this week. I have gone back to that article multiple times since putting it together, it could help you find some value on the board!
The Jaguars were one of the best defenses to target last year for a long play, and they kept that generosity going in Week against the Commanders. Carson Wentz completed six passes of 20+ yards , including a 49-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin.
The Colts were also in a soft Week 1 matchup for chunk plays (we'll get to who that was in a moment). Pittman delivered, hauling in two 20+ yard catches en route to a 121-yard day. He had a long of 28 last Sunday and looks to be in a good spot to do it again as Matt Ryan's top target.
UPDATE: Several reports are saying Pittman is dealing with an injured quad and might not play Sunday.
Courtland Sutton was our Monday Night target against the Seahawks, and he came through with a 30-yard catch.
It was an encouraging start to his relationship with Russell Wilson, as he was consistently targeted down the field, just as his high aDOT from last year suggested he would.
The 30-yard catch sported a bit of YAC to get to that number, but Sutton's route tree shows you a guy working down the field. He was twice targeted 20+ yards down the field, and while he and Wilson did not connect on either of them, it shows me a WR that is going to have his fair share of deep balls this season.
The Broncos draw the Texans on Sunday, the team we alluded to in the Pittman writeup. Matt Ryan stacked the explosive plays against this defense, with four of the five Colts receivers registering a catch of 20+ yards.
Houston was one of the most vulnerable secondaries to go after in 2021, and it would appear we can run that back in the fresh season.
One overlooked area in our Week 1 looks was to consider a quarterback's long completion when we find a spot that has us liking a certain receiver.
Long completions went 7-2 on the circled spots last week, and Wilson was apart of that number, tossing a 67-yard touchdown to Jerry Jeudy.
Wilson is second in the NFL in Week 1 attempts that traveled 20+ yards in the air, with 7. So, why is this line so low? My guess is because Matt Ryan did not complete a pass over 28 yards, but that does not scare me off, Wilson is not the same type of passer as Ryan.
Wilson is over this 36.5 number in in 22 of his last 32 games (69%) and clearly showed us that he has two receivers he trusts to make plays down the field.
This is a soft line that should be closer to 38.5. Cheers to Wilson tossing a 40-yard pass to Sutton to cash two plays in one.
We will have a few more long play props this week as sportsbooks open the market.
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!