Updated AFC playoff picture features the Chiefs in charge heading into Week 18

The Kansas City Chiefs delivered their fans a Christmas present: The coveted #1 seed in the AFC. The team officially secured its ticket to the Divisional Round with a comfortable 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day.

From kickoff to final whistle, the Chiefs controlled the game in a way not seen since their Week 5 victory over the Saints. Apart from a lackluster second quarter, Kansas City maintained control throughout the game. It marked their first win by 17+ points since defeating the Dolphins in last season's Wild Card Round.

After the 17th week of the 2024-25 NFL season, which teams in the AFC and NFC are still fighting for playoff positioning?

NFC Playoff Standings, Week 17

1. x-Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. z-Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. z-Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. x-Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. x-Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. x-Green Bay Packers (11-5)

*= Clinched #1 seed, z= Clinched division title, x= Clinched playoff spot

In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8).

In a game that tested viewers' sanity, the Seahawks barely escaped with a win against the Bears. The Rams survived a late comeback attempt from the Cardinals, clinching the NFC West crown. Breaking their home-field losing streak, the Giants outgunned the Colts in a surprising offensive shootout. The Saints' downward spiral continued as they fell flat against the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers kept their divisional title hopes alive with a commanding victory over the Panthers.

The Eagles corralled the Cowboys to secure the NFC East crown. The Vikings fended off the Packers to keep pace in their pursuit of the NFC's top seed. The Commanders outlasted the Falcons in overtime to seal their first playoff berth since 2020, while Atlanta has lost control of their postseason destiny. The Lions handled business against the 49ers on Monday Night Football.

The upcoming Lions-Vikings Sunday Night Football showdown is poised for greatness. With their remarkable 28 combined victories, this showdown boasts the highest win total for any regular-season game in NFL history. The stakes couldn't be higher: the victor claims both the conference's top seed and a coveted first-round playoff bye, while the loser tumbles to fifth see d and faces a road game on Wild Card weekend. In essence, this game will serve as a de facto playoff game before the playoffs even begin.

A look at the NFC playoff odds

According to Team Rankings, heading into the final weekend of the regular season, the Lions have a 73.0% chance to win the NFC, while the Vikings are at 27.0%. The winner of the Minnesota-Detroit Week 18 matchup will earn the top seed.

The Lions also remain the favorites in the NFC to win Super Bowl LIX at a whopping 26.9%. The Eagles are second with a 9.6% chance of winning it all. They're followed by the Vikings at 5.5%, while the Packers (5.4%), Buccaneers (3.0%), Commanders (1.4%), and Rams (1.3%) are right behind them.

AFC Playoff Standings, Week 18

1. *-Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. z-Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. x-Baltimore Rav ens (11-5)
4. z-Houston Texans (9-7)
5. x-Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. x-Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)

*= Clinched #1 seed, z= Clinched division title, x= Clinched playoff spot

In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).

The Chiefs played the role of the Grinch on Christmas, crushing the Steelers' holiday spirits and securing the #1 seed. The Ravens overwhelmed the Texans to reclaim the AFC North lead. Meanwhile, the Chargers made easy work of the Patriots, punching their first playoff ticket since 2022. The Bengals kept their postseason hopes alive with a thrilling victory over the Broncos. Down in Duval, the Jaguars' win over the Titans effectively ended their chances of landing the #1 pick.

The Bills steamrolled the Jets in a commanding performance, securing their hold on the AFC's second seed. The Giants dealt the fatal blow to the Colts' postseason hopes. The Raiders found their stride for the second straight game, downing the Saints. Meanwhile, the Dolphins kept their playoff hopes alive by beating the Browns.

A look at the AFC playoff odds

The race for #1 seed is over as the Chiefs clinched it with their Christmas Day victory over the Steelers.

According to Team Rankings, the Chiefs are once again the favorites in the AFC to win Super Bowl LIX at 16.3%. The Bills are second at 13.7%. Following Buffalo is the Ravens at 10.8%, while the Chargers (2.1%), Steelers (1.6%), Texans (1.3%), Broncos (0.6%), and Bengals (0.3%) fall in line behind them.

Week 17 was the Chiefs' most complete performance in recent memory. The defense excelled, forcing two turnovers, while the offense was efficient, averaging 6.7 yards per play. Despite their strong showing, it seemed they still left some points on the board.

With their playoff position secured, the Chiefs are expected to rest their starters in Week 18 against Denver. This extended rest will give Chris Jones nearly a month to recover from his calf injury, allow Travis Kelce additional time to return to playoff form and provide two weeks of rest for all other players dealing with injuries.

Having an extra week off, along with bypassing the Wild Card Round, provides the Chiefs an opportunity to self-scout and make improvements. This extended break allows them to evaluate their optimal offensive line configuration and determine the most effective rotations for both their secondary and defensive line.

Since there's another week for playoff seeding to be determined, it's a little too early to speculate on who their first playoff opponent will be, but we do know it'll be someone from the #4 to the #7 seed range.