Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's NFL Draft record continues to receive major criticism, but the real answer isn't a simple one

The Minnesota Vikings are currently sitting at 3-4 with a decent shot at having their record get even worse with a very difficult schedule coming up in the coming weeks. That, paired with the embarrassing 37-10 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, had some Vikings fans looking toward the offseason and the NFL Draft.

One of the big issues that fans have with the NFL Draft is that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's track record isn't the greatest when it comes to the annual selection meeting. However, it's not exactly as poor as the fanbase would like you to believe.

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's NFL Draft record is complicated

There is a stigma with Adofo-Mensah's NFL Draft aptitude due to the lack of success in his first class in 2022. He's been very open about how his process has changed.

"I thought a lot about those days and competing, trying to compete on multiple timelines and different things like that. I had a conversation with Kevin [O’Connell] . This is probably a year ago or something, around then," said Adofo-Mensah after final cuts in 2024. "I asked him one time, what was it like when we were down 33-0? You know, when you feel like you're down. When I entered the building, trying to compete, aging roster, salary cap stuff, I think there were times where I felt down 33-0. As we all know, that game starts with one play, one drive, and you build. I think at times I might have been guilty of trying to maybe have a 33-point play all at once. I think once I identified that, I kind of really just, and I think if you've seen since then, it's been really foundationally just taking good steps, building to a certain critical point where I think we compete over the long term."

It's also worth noting how different success with NFL Draft picks should be measured. What is a hit with a first-round pick is significantly different than a hit with a seventh-round pick. On an overall scale, this is the general synopsis of a successful draft pick.

The best drafting teams have done a good job of finding starters on day three who can contribute early on. Even so, those players are few and far between.

Heading into Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's first NFL Draft, The Daily Norseman's Warren Ludford did a 20 year study looking at NFL Draft picks and how many were deemed successful on an overall level. He broke it down into seven categories

This essentially boils down to 20.2% of draft picks being considered good selections. With around 260 NFL Draft picks per season, that leaves 53 draft picks being good selections. On average, that is less than two per team. The best teams find a way to maximize that output. It's not just on the general manager and scouting department when it comes to draft pick success; circumstances and coaching also matter.

The reality here is simple: it's really hard to find success consistently in the NFL Draft. Former general manager Rick Spielman also struggled to find success in the NFL Draft, and it resonated in a major way toward the end of his tenure.

Going into this years NFL Draft, I took a look at each of Adofo-Mensah's NFL Draft picks and classified them as a successful pick, a failed pick, or to be determined. This is how they shaped out prior to the season:

Successful Picks: 5.5
Failed Picks: 8.5
To Be Determined: 8
Tragedy: 1
T.J. Hockenson: 1

Since that piece came out, three of the picks in the "to be determined" category can be moved to successful picks in Will Reichard, Michael Jurgens and Levi Drake Rodriguez, and one more to the failed category after the Vikings traded cornerback Mekhi Blackmon to the Indianapolis Colts.

When it comes to this NFL Draft class, we can already place linebacker Kobe King into the failed picks category due to being waived and then claimed by the New York Jets. You also need to include Hockenson in this discussion, because you traded significant draft capital to get him, as well as the tragic passing of Khyree Jackson, being placed in its own category. He unfortunately never got to see the field after his tragic passing before his first training camp, which makes it impossible to truly judge the selection.

As things currently stand, here is how those picks factor in.

Successful Picks: 8.5
Failed Picks: 10.5
To Be Determined: 7
Tragedy: 1
T.J. Hockenson: 1

Of the 27 NFL Draft picks Adofo-Mensah has made, his track record isn't nearly as bad as it might seem. Sure, it absolutely needs to be better, and the best pick from his first draft class being Jalen Nailor really stings right now, as those players should be making a major impact on the team right now, especially with all four of the top 66 picks from that class being off the team.

Even so, you have a bona fide superstar in Jordan Addison that was selected at 23rd overall, and three projected talented players in J.J. McCarthy, Dallas Turner, and Donovan Jackson having shown big time flashes across the board. If they all end up being hits, the conversation around Adofo-Mensah's drafting shifts significantly.

It also can't be overlooked that Adofo-Mensah has done a masterful job of navigating the UDFA market, with 16 players making the roster during his tenure. He's found real contributors in that area in linebacker Ivan Pace Jr., edge rusher Bo Richter, and edge rusher Gabe Murphy. That group doesn't include UFL defensive tackle Jalen Redmond. That matters in this conversation.

It's fair to be frustrated with the lack of real NFL Draft success with Adofo-Mensah, but nearly all of that comes from the 2022 NFL Draft class, and you can tell that his process has been significantly different, and it's resulted in real contributors for this team.

Make no mistake, the Vikings need better from Adofo-Mensah, but our expectations as a collective whole have been a little bit too optimistic. It's hard to draft! His process showing major improvement should give hope across the board, not be a deterrent.

With a bevy of selections this year, Adofo-Mensah is going to have the capital to change the narrative, and his track record with a 37-21 record as the general manager has more than earned him that chance.

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