Why 2026 Could Be NFL’s Year of Tanking

With the lowest projected win total in the NFL (3.5), the Cardinals are perfectly situated to start over with a rookie quarterback next season. They head into the season with Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew and third-round pick Carson Beck in the QB room. Brissett was 1-11 as a starter last season. Arizona’s decision to bring him back says it all.

Bigger picture, the Cardinals lack an identity and have less buzz than any franchise in the league. Rookie Jeremiyah Love could be a star, but for a running back to be the face of a losing team won’t change anything. Arizona would be wise to rest Love at points this season to minimize his wear and tear.

The Cardinals have a difficult start to the schedule and will have to compete with the talented NFC West. But they have some work to do down the stretch to avoid random Ws. They face the Jets in Week 15 with possibly the No. 1 pick on the line. Then they finish with the Saints, Raiders and 49ers.

New York Jets

The Jets haven’t made the playoffs in 15 years, the longest drought in North American sports. Aaron Glenn isn’t wired to lose on purpose and could be coaching for his job. It might not matter. Starting quarterback Geno Smith had productive seasons in Seattle, but he can’t elevate a bad roster. Smith was 2-13 as a starter in Las Vegas last season.

Despite finishing in last place last season, New York still has the 12th-most difficult schedule. They have three first-round picks and 10 overall picks in next year’s NFL Draft. Fans might say they can just combine two or all three of those picks and trade up. But if this quarterback class is as exceptional as promised, teams might not move out of the top three picks for any ransom.

The Jets blew their chance to draft Trevor Lawrence in 2021 with a shocking late-season win over the Rams. They ended up taking Zach Wilson at No. 2. Jets fans point to the win over L.A. as 17.5-point underdogs as one of the worst games in franchise history.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns’ decision to trade Myles Garrett in the offseason sent a clear signal about their plans for ’26. Even fictional GM Sonny Weaver from Draft Day would give up on this roster. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has played only 19 games in his four seasons in Cleveland, and the team will finally be able to move off his bloated contract after this season. Second-year QB Shedeur Sanders finished with a 3-4 record as a starter last season but only managed to throw seven TDs compared to 10 INTs.

New coach Todd Monken has had success with a variety of QBs and maybe will get some production out of this year’s group. Still, he has to understand where the Browns are as a franchise. Owner Jimmy Haslam, a Tennessee alum, has a relationship with Peyton Manning; there are longstanding rumors he would do anything to get Arch Manning in the building.

Cleveland visits the Jets in Week 5, a matchup that could set up the tanking trajectory for both teams.

Miami Dolphins

Newly acquired quarterback Malik Willis is in a tough spot. He signed a three-year deal for $67.5 million. Quarterbacks on lower-end contracts can take off, like Sam Darnold in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. Those guys were surrounded by talent. Willis doesn’t have the infrastructure around him in Miami to show what he can do. His receiving corps consists of journeymen like Jalen Tolbert, TuTu Atwell and Malik Washington. There isn’t a No. 1 — or even No. 2 — caliber receiver on the roster.

New head coach Jeff Hafley is attempting to build a replica of the Packers defense he most recently coached. If he’s successful, the Dolphins might pick off a few wins. But like the Jets, they face the NFC North and will need to keep up with some high-powered offenses.

The Dolphins end the season with six straight games against teams that made the playoffs last season (Broncos, Bears, Packers, Chargers, Bills, Patriots). If they’re in bad shape heading into Week 13, they will be sure to lose out and start scouting college quarterbacks.

Waving the white flag late

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. hasn’t spent enough time on the field to convince the Falcons he’s the future of the franchise and he could be pushed by veteran Tua Tagovailoa. Penix is 4-8 as a starter despite having a strong supporting cast. Atlanta is in the midst of an eight-year playoff drought and still needs a solid post-Matt Ryan era plan.

Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young seems like he’s on an upward trajectory, but he is still on his rookie deal and the Panthers have not signed him to an extension. While they finished last season on an upswing and gave the Rams all they could handle in the playoffs, Young’s contractual uncertainty could enter the front office’s thinking in the final few weeks of the season.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are an outlier on this list because they could be after a non-QB. With veteran Kirk Cousins and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, they’re set at that position. However, they might be focused on their draft position if Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith dominates the college football season. Even in a QB-rich draft, Smith could be so special that teams will trade major capital to land him in ’27.

New Orleans Saints

Second-year QB Tyler Shough is getting a lot of buzz and the Saints are some experts’ dark horse playoff team. But this roster is fragile, with older players like Alvin Kamara and Cam Jordan and injury-prone star receiver Chris Olave. If the wheels fall off and Shough doesn’t play well, they could be tempted by next year’s QB class.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have way too strong a coaching staff to end up with a top-3 draft pick. But they’re in a strong division and their two QBs, Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, could go either way this season. If the playoffs appear to be out of reach, Minnesota could shift its focus toward securing a better spot to find their guy in the ’27 draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin would never take his foot off the gas. But new head coach Mike McCarthy was 6-10 in his first season in Dallas before turning around the Cowboys and could need some time. If 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers can’t stay healthy, Pittsburgh has important decisions ahead. The Steelers have been in limbo for too long and need consistency under center.