10 thoughts after the Oilers Game 1 win

The best part about the NHL playoffs is that winning is all that matters. It is infinitely better to play poorly and win rather than play well and lose. There rarely is carryover from one game to the next.

The momentum swings within a game can be massive, and the Oilers won Game 1 with two solid periods, two-goal games from Jason Dickinson and Kasperi Kapanen, two key saves in the final eight minutes from Connor Ingram, and two assist games from Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin, and Jake Walman.

Here are my 10 thoughts on the game:

1. Dickinson has had six multi-goal games in his career (four in the regular season and two in the playoffs) and three have come against Anaheim. He saves his best offensive games for the Ducks. His first goal was a beauty move off a stellar pass from Walman. Dickinson is the great example of why underlying stats mean very little in the playoffs. Some who believe strongly in analytics would fret over the fact Dickinson was outshot 9-4 at five-on-five and had sub 50 per cent expected goal share (xGF%). My biggest concern with those who push xGF% is: Which site do you trust? MoneyPuck had him at 35 per cent and NST is at 42.2 per cent. I’ve always been fascinated by how staunchly someone will criticize a player over xGF%, when there isn’t any consistency across the public numbers, but I digress. Goals ultimately decide games, and playing percentages doesn’t mean much long-term. You can have one great game and dominate on shots and possession, but if you score nothing, it means very little, because there is no guarantee you will have the same success the next game. Playoffs are all about winning, and Dickinson produced two massive goals for the Oilers last night. Dickinson had one goal in 17 regular season games since being acquired, but he scores a pair in his first playoff game.

To win in the playoffs, you need unexpected heroes, and Dickinson was that. Dickinson became the fourth player to record a multi-goal game in his Oilers’ postseason debut. He joins Brian Glynn (Game 1 of 1992 round one), Jaroslav Pouzar (Game 4 of 1983 round three) and Jari Kurri (Game 1 of 1981 first round).

2. Walman played his best game of the season. Who saw that coming? Playoffs are a different beast, and Walman was electric all game. He was moving his feet, he was engaged in scrums, and his pass to Dickinson was a beauty. He finished the game with two assists, two shots, two hits, and many plays where he escaped from pressure by a quick burst up ice. Walman elevated his game last season in the playoffs, and last night he started off on the right foot again. He was very noticeable in only 15 minutes of ice time. The Oilers needed him to step up his play and he delivered last night.

3. Kapanen battled injuries this season, and outside of the last few weeks of the season, he was very good when he was in the lineup. “He has been a little bit idle the past few weeks, but knowing how he has played in the playoffs, especially with that Podkolzin, Draisaitl, and Kappy line, it has been so good. That’s when we’ve seen him play his best, and tonight was definitely that,” said Kris Knoblauch. Kapanen is incredibly skilled, and when his will matches his skill, he can be a difference maker for the Oilers. And he was last night. Last night was Kapanen’s 51st playoff game and his second multi-goal game and first since scoring two with Toronto in 2017.

For the Oilers to win 4-2 and get a pair of goals by Kapanen and Dickinson, and both to have their first multi-goal playoff game as Oilers, is wild.

4. Losing Adam Henrique is not ideal. He is their best faceoff man in the right circle in the defensive zone, which is where most teams like to have the faceoff to start the power play. We saw his absence on the Ducks’ power-play goal. They won the draw cleanly, and five seconds into the power play, Troy Terry scored his second goal of the game to give the Ducks a 3-2 lead. If Radko Gudas doesn’t stumble and fall to give Mattias Ekholm a wide-open lane to shoot, maybe Dickinson doesn’t score the tying goal. For me, defensive zone draws are key, and shorthanded faceoffs can be vital especially when you lose them cleanly. Josh Samanski is a good young player, but he isn’t as good on faceoffs, and he provided very little offence in the regular season. His nine shots on goal were tied for the fewest of the 699 forwards who played 24 games. Maybe he will be another unexpected player who elevates his game in the playoffs, but for those cheering that Henrique was out and calling it “no loss,” they are overlooking some of the small, key intricacies of the game. Penalty kill faceoffs are massive, and we saw what can happen when you lose one cleanly. Samanski is a better skater, no question, but he doesn’t have any playoff experience, and he isn’t as strong on pucks. If the Oilers keep losing draws on the penalty kill in game two, I wonder if Knoblauch considers Curtis Lazar later in the series. Lazar is excellent on right-side draws. I know he isn’t as quick, and that is a concern, but defensive zone faceoff losses can be devastating. Something to look for. I expect Samanski to play in Game 2, and luckily for the Oilers, Anaheim isn’t a great faceoff team overall.

5. Two of the Oilers’ best players were average, at best, and the Oilers still won. Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard, who carried the Oilers at various times in the regular season, didn’t have their best games. but the Oilers won, and that’s huge for them. McDavid and Bouchard have a long pedigree of being great in the playoffs, and they will be better in Game 2 and beyond, but winning without them contributing much is a huge boost for the Oilers.

In the 2017 playoffs the Oilers were 3-2 in games where McDavid had no points.

In 2021 they were 0-2.

In 2022 they were 0-2.

In 2023 they were 0-2.

In 2024 they were 2-5.

Last year they were 1-3.

And they are 1-0 this season.

It is rare McDavid is held off the scoresheet, and for the Oilers to not only win but also score four goals is a huge boost for them. In 80 playoff games between 2021 and now, he has scored:

19 games with 3+ points.
25 games with two points.
18 games with one point.
18 games with zero points.

They are now 4-14 when he registers no points.

6. Colton Dach and Trent Frederic did what I feel is one of the hardest things to do in hockey: contribute in limited minutes. Dach played 8:04 and Frederic skated 8:33, but when they were on the ice, they outshot Anaheim 4-2 and Dach had seven hits and Frederic had three. They weren’t on the ice for any high-danger chances against. With neither playing special teams, their TOI will vary anywhere from six to 11 minutes, depending on how the game is going, but they carried their strong play from the end of the regular season into Game 1.

7. Hands up if you thought the Ducks’ fourth line would play the most minutes against McDavid? McDavid played 18:40 at five-on-five and the Ducks’ top two D pairs split time against him very evenly at around 8:30 per pair, while the third pair of Radko Gudas and Tyson Hinds played :48 and 1:00 respectively. But centre Tim Washe logged the most time (6:40) of any Ducks forward. The other centres of Leo Carlsson (5:30), Mikael Granlund (4:12) and Ryan Poehling (2:19) had the rest. Ducks head coach Joel Quenneville said before the game he was very comfortable with his bottom guys playing against anyone, but admittedly I was surprised to see Washe out there as often as he was. But he contained McDavid, as their shots were even 1-1 in their 6:40 of head-to-head play. I still think that is a matchup that should favour the Oilers long-term, but credit Washe and the Ducks, they did a great job containing McDavid for one game. But they still lost, and they might look back on this as the game that got away from them.

8. I loved the quick pace of this game, and the massive momentum swings of the playoffs were in full effect. Edmonton dominated the opening period, then Anaheim punched back and controlled the second period. The third was closer, but the Oilers got two big goals along with two key saves from Ingram. Draisaitl outlined what went wrong in the second period. “Just not our game. Too many turnovers, not hard enough on pucks, and sometimes it is just about simplifying things.” Draisaitl added he liked how they responded in the third but needed to be able to regain momentum rather than struggle for an entire period.

9. The Ducks are going to be a force down the road. Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Beckett Sennecke are huge and skilled. Jackson Lacombe is a very good young defender and strong — just ask Zach Hyman, who was on the receiving end of a hard reverse hit. The Ducks, like the Oilers many years ago, will need to add more on the blueline, but I really like the makeup of their team. The more I watch Carlsson, the more I like his game. He is going to be a star.

10. Matt Savoie got better as the game went on. In the third period he created a few turnovers with his speed and quick forechecks. The playoffs are a big adjustment, and I felt early he was rushing to move the puck, which is understandable, the game slowed down a bit as it went along, and I expect he will only improve as the playoffs progress.