
The 2026 NHL draft lottery set up one of the more intriguing drafts in recent memory. The Toronto Maple Leafs were the big winners of the night, jumping from fifth to first overall after missing the playoffs for the first time in nine years.
This year’s draft class has been a mystery to scouts due to a clear lack of depth outside of the top-end talent. Consensus will undoubtedly shift in the weeks leading up to the draft, but here’s a look at how the top 16 could go come June 26 in Buffalo.
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— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 5, 2026
After a flat-out disastrous season for the Maple Leafs, there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. McKenna offers a dynamic level of playmaking that the Maple Leafs, and more importantly, Auston Matthews, seemed to be missing last season.
There is some debate that the Maple Leafs should target a higher-floor player like Ivar Stenberg, but a talent like McKenna is something you can’t pass on.
After a rocky start to his college career, McKenna popped in the latter half of the season with Penn State. His vision, hockey IQ, and hands combine to make him easily the most talented player in the draft, and a possible 100-point player in his prime.
It’s hard to imagine newly hired general manager John Chayka skipping on the Canadian phenom, but the gap between the first and second-best prospects is certainly closer than most realize.
Gavin McKenna 4 Goals, 10 Assists (14 Points) in 7 Games at 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship.pic.twitter.com/xhpHGR8oaT
— Hockey Performances (@PerformancesNHL) June 1, 2026
The San Jose Sharks have one of the best young forward cores in the league, and after jumping to second, the general sentiment remained that they should target a defenseman. Most draft classes, selecting based on positional holes would be a perfectly sound strategy.
Most draft classes don’t have Ivar Stenberg.
Stenberg is arguably the best Swedish prospect of the century, recording the second-best draft-year points-per-game of any SHL player. Similar to McKenna, Stenberg is an undersized winger, but makes up for it on the offensive end.
Stenberg shines with the puck on his stick and possesses all the traits of a high-end first-line talent. Throwing him alongside Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith could make his transition to the NHL that much easier.
Mike Grier has shown time and time again his commitment to drafting the best player available, and Stenberg is just that. If the Sharks select Stenberg, a trade for a young defenseman becomes that much more likely.
WHAT A GOAL BY IVAR STENBERG
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— IIHF (@IIHFHockey) May 26, 2026
If modern NHL defenseman were in the dictionary, it would be accompanied by a picture of Chase Reid.
Reid is a smooth-skating, puck-moving defenseman who thrives in transition. While it was disappointing for the Canucks to drop to third after a dead-last finish, Reid isn’t a bad consolation prize.
With the addition of Zeev Buium last season, that takes off some of the pressure for Reid to become a power-play quarterback, and allows him to play more of a minute-munching 5-on-5 role.
Some of the decision-making is still questionable, but all the tools are there for Reid to become a good top-pairing defenseman in the future.
Although with the hiring of Manny Malhotra as head coach, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Canucks opted to draft his son, who is projected in the top five of the draft.
Chase Reid's shot is ridiculous
#NHLDraft
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: @OHLHockey) https://t.co/hHZFGgvWig pic.twitter.com/reGKXfaE8m
— NHL (@NHL) May 5, 2026
Caleb Malhotra brings a two-way style that general manager Kyle Davidson has targeted in years past, along with a 6-foot-2 frame that will make his jump to the next level easier. His 84 points in 67 games don’t stand out alongside the other elite forwards of the draft, but his game is cerebral for an 18-year-old.
Malhotra is committed to Boston University for next season, so it’ll likely be two years before he can make an impact for the Blackhawks. With the need for immediate help next to Connor Bedard, the Blackhawks may opt to move this pick for a proven winger in his mid-twenties.
This pick would force last year’s second overall pick, Anton Frondell, to move to the wing full-time, but he’s proven capable of making the change.
Caleb Malhotra on potentially being picked by the Canucks, the same organization his dad Manny played for.
H/T Mark Masters pic.twitter.com/9qITrlIw4u
— BarDown (@BarDown) May 8, 2026
As the second defenseman off the board, Verhoeff brings an interesting set of tools to a team like the Rangers. The booming shot and length all point to his potential as an elite power-play quarterback in the NHL.
However, his decision-making and skating are below those of the other defenseman available in this range. For the Rangers, they have all the time in the world to wait for a player like Verhoeff to develop, and that size is a trait they’ve prioritized in the past.
Verhoeff would join a forward-heavy young core of Alexis Lafrenière and Gabe Perreault.
Bjorck at six may be a reach to some scouts, but the 5-foot-9 center has made a case for the third-best forward in the draft. He spent time this season as a first-line center for Djurgardens IF, a rare feat for players his age.
The skating and tenacity are reminiscent of Logan Stankoven — but with a bit more playmaking finesse. With a foundation of Zayne Parekh and Dustin Wolf, Bjorck would provide a much-needed spark to a Calgary team devoid of offense.
After spending four of their first five first-round draft picks on centers, the Kraken are lucky to be picking towards the top of a defense-heavy class. Carels possesses some of the best skating in the class, along with a physical side that you rarely see out of young offensive defensemen.
His game is somewhat reminiscent of K’Andre Miller, who has played the best hockey of his career en route to the Stanley Cup Final. Carels has all the tools to become a top-pairing defenseman if he works on some of the decision-making with the puck.
The Kraken are hoping one of Carels or Verhoeff falls to seven, as the next crop of defensemen aren’t quite on the same level as those two.
Šmits plays even larger than his 6-foot-3 frame, bringing a style of physicality rarely seen out of a draft-eligible prospect. His bruising style of play fits like a glove with the Winnipeg Jets, especially after trading Logan Stanley.
The skating is smooth for someone of his stature, but he’ll need to add on some speed before he can make the jump to the NHL. That’s not to say his game lacks maturity, as Šmits was the youngest player at the 2026 Olympics, where he represented Latvia.
His above-average hockey sense, paired with his physical tools, makes him one of the more enticing defensemen in the class.
It’s hard to gauge where the Panthers will go in this draft. After back-to-back Stanley Cups, their eyes are still on competing at the highest level.
With Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling entering their thirties, Daxon Rudolph is a perfect replacement. Rudolph brings a high-floor to a Panthers team that can’t afford to waste a lottery pick.
The ceiling is likely a second-pairing, physical defenseman, and that’s perfectly fine for a contending team such as Florida.
Most rankings see Villeneuve falling to the mid-twenties, but Chris MacFarland may be the perfect candidate to reach on him.
Villeneuve’s biggest knock is his 5-foot-11 frame, but MacFarland has never shied away from smaller defensemen. He helped lead Colorado to a Stanley Cup with two undersized defensemen in Cale Makar and Samuel Girard on the back end.
Villeneuve possesses game-breaking edges and phenomenal sense with the puck. With the recent success of Lane Hutson, it’s hard to imagine that general managers will continue to make the mistake of passing on skilled defensemen because of their height.
Lawrence is going to be a very capable third-line center one day. The defensive awareness, motor and overall poise are a coach’s dream.
The offensive tools won’t blow anybody away, and he’s struggled to drive play after making the jump to college. With that being said, he’s the perfect low-risk pick for a Blues roster full of offensive threats.
It’s possible someone takes a risk on Lawrence earlier if they believe in the offensive tools enough.
Ethan Belchetz, despite missing time with an injury, will be a sought-after commodity come draft night. Not often does a player standing 6-foot-5 carry as much skill as Belchetz.
His hands in tight can only be compared to Tage Thompson, and his skill in transition is evident against OHL competition. His consistency and health are the two biggest concerns, but a team needing help on the wing, such as the Devils, should be willing to take the risk.
Oscar Hemming is arguably the second-best two-way forward in this class outside of Lawrence. His willingness to play physically and tenacious forechecking ability line up with the Islanders’ playstyle.
The skating isn’t quite NHL level, but his motor more than makes up for it. A potential pairing of Victor Eklund and Hemming is a nightmare for opposing teams.
This pick would help round out the forward core after the Islanders targeted defensemen in last year’s draft.
Wyatt Cullen has been this year’s late riser in the draft, and for good reason. Cullen is the epitome of USNTDP development, blending high-end skill with a cerebral approach to the game.
Cullen had some injury concerns to start the season, but picked up his play as the season went along.
His skating is a real concern, similar to a player like Perreault in 2023, but he has plenty of time to iron out the details before making the jump to the next level.
In their second pick of the draft, the Blues target a defenseman after going for the high-floor forward. Ryan Lin is never afraid to activate from the point, and he has the tools to back it up.
His edges are some of the best in the class, and elusiveness has proven to be a mandatory skill of a true No. 1 defenseman. The decision-making has been picked apart by scouts since the start of the season, but it’s nothing a few more years of development can’t fix.
The Capitals have done a phenomenal job assessing talent in recent years, and Oliver Suvanto may be their next project. There’s a clear lack of center talent in their current pool, and Suvanto is an extremely translatable center.
He has a polish to his game that is rarely seen in players of his age, but the Finnish development system tends to foster that sort of playstyle. His defensive awareness is extremely promising and raises his floor to that of a third-line center.
With a current core of winger Ilya Protas and defenseman Cole Hutson, it’s hard to imagine the Capitals don’t aim for a center with one of their two first-round picks.
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