Capitals need better goaltending to be serious contenders

Contrast that with the performance of Capitals goalie Ilya Samsonov, who allowed four goals on 26 shots and wasn’t very sharp. That type of performance won’t be good enough for the 2018 Stanley Cup champions this spring.

Barring complete implosion, the Capitals are going to make the Stanley Cup playoffs, and even though the team has lost five straight games on home ice, Washington has the star power and coaching staff to battle through adversity. The Caps should be fine making the dance.

But I’m not sold in the crease. Recently, it appeared as though Vitek Vanecek had taken over in goal for the Capitals. After returning from the holiday break in late December, he went 4-2-0 and posted a .925 save percentage over that span.

Then Vanecek suffered an upper-body injury on Feb. 1 against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and he is currently on the injured reserve. He has resumed skating on his own, but there is no timetable for his return.

That is why I’m concerned. Vanecek has proved to be a good NHL goalkeeper, but I haven’t seen reason to believe he is capable of being a great starting goalie. 

He has put in the work. Vanecek spent five full seasons in the AHL before making his NHL debut during the 2020-21 season when a heart condition prevented Henrik Lundqvist from suiting up for the Capitals. Vanecek ended up playing a surprising 37 games in his rookie campaign and posted a .908 save percentage.

Maybe he takes that next step before the end of the season. Vanecek has improved every year of his pro career, and if he does turn out to be a goaltender who regularly posts a save percentage above .920, Washington’s management will sleep much easier.

That’s a lot to ask of a goaltender just now coming into his own in the NHL and with little Stanley Cup playoff experience. Vanecek’s only postseason appearance occurred in 2021. In that lone start, Vanecek’s hamstring gave out just 13 minutes into the game, an injury that took months to heal.

To me, the real worry isn’t whether Vanecek can hold his own. It’s whether Samsonov is ever going to play up to his draft status. He was taken 22nd overall by the Capitals in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft and instantly labeled the heir apparent to Braden Holtby.

Samsonov is 24 years old and has a career record of 44-17-6. That’s impressive, but his career .906 save percentage isn’t. Neither is his -3.2 goals saved above average (via moneypuck.com) this season.

With Samsonov, I see a fluid goaltender lacking the necessary details to be consistent at the NHL level. He was able to get away with it his rookie season in 2019-20 when opposing teams hadn’t seen him previously. Samsonov is naturally gifted and occasionally steals games when he’s in the zone.

When he’s not — like Sunday against the Senators — it isn’t pretty. When Samsonov’s puck tracking is off, he struggles on shots just above his pad blocker side. He can be impatient and drop early. And occasionally his somewhat aggressive depth on rush chances against leaves him off the proper angle when the play moves laterally.

It’s really hard for a goaltender to be consistent if he is in perpetual motion, and that’s what happens once Samsonov’s knees hit the ice. He’s constantly pushing laterally and has a tendency to over-correct and slide past his destination.

More than anything, Samsonov hasn’t been consistent. In his 10 losses this season, he has an .878 save percentage. Compare that to Vanecek, who has a save percentage of .899 in the 11 games he’s dropped. It’s no surprise that Peter Laviolette has favored Vanecek of late.

It’s a tough scenario for the Capitals. They have a goaltender in Samsonov with unrealized potential, and there’s allegiance involved. He was a first-round draft pick. Teams don’t give up easily on them.

They also have a seasoned professional in Vanecek who continues to improve, but neither is a sure bet when it comes to the Stanley Cup playoffs.

So what will the Capitals do to shore up their crease? Do they trade for a pending unrestricted free agent goaltender and hope a rental can bring the Stanley Cup back to Washington, D.C.? That tactic hasn’t worked since Patrick Roy was dealt from the Montreal Canadiens to the Colorado Avalanche during the 1995-96 season – well in advance of the trade deadline.

Do they trade for a young goaltender with term left on his contract or maybe a seasoned veteran who’s on the back side of his career and currently stuck in a No. 2 role?

To me, both of those scenarios would be lateral moves for the Capitals. It would be more for optics than anything — the “hey, at least we did something” routine.

There’s an old saying in auto racing: “Fun what ya brung.” To me, that might be what the Capitals are stuck with. Dealing for a goaltender isn’t easy, especially in this NHL market where so few true No. 1's are available.

Do I expect the Capitals to make a move in goal? Yes. Do I think it will make a difference? Probably not.

The Capitals are a good team that should be in the mix for the Stanley Cup, but they need better goaltending. I think it will likely have to come from within the organization. Washington needs a healthy Vitek Vanecek and a consistent Ilya Samsonov.