Capitals’ Worst-Case Scenarios for 2026-27

Jordan Kyrou (or Tuch) likely gets shoved to the secondary power-play unit with two high-ticket acquisitions in the same offseason. The 28-year-old winger tallied only four goals in his final season for the St. Louis Blues, but he has been good for nearly double that amount of celebrations (7.5) over the last four seasons. With less ice time and plenty of moving parts, Kyrou cannot break the five-goal barrier again this season, hampering his overall goal and point outputs in his Washington debut.

Finally, is there still an opportunity for Tom Wilson on the power-play unit this season with the additions up front? The 32-year-old scored seven goals with the man advantage last season, a total that represents 23% of his 30-goal total. Wilson has found success with 18 goals on the power play over the last two seasons, but can he find the same success with new faces in the lineup? In an unkind world (for the purposes of this article), he loses his grip on a power play spot entirely, leading to a significant reduction in his overall goal total this season.

Cole Hutson Overwhelmed by Rookie Season

Montreal Canadiens’ defenseman Lane Hutson put the league on notice in 2024-25 by recording 60 assists during his rookie season, tying Larry Murphy’s record from the 1980-81 campaign with the Los Angeles Kings. The performance earned him the 2025 Calder Memorial Trophy as the league’s most outstanding rookie two seasons ago. 

Cole Hutson, Lane’s younger brother, displays similar offense-driving attributes to the Capitals’ back end this fall after an electric 14-game start to his pro career. The 20-year-old defender scored three goals and totaled 10 points in a limited taste of hockey at its highest level. It was a refreshing change of scenery for the left-hander after a forgettable season for the entire men’s hockey program at Boston University in 2025-26. After totaling 48 points in 39 games for the Terriers in 2024-25, Hutson recorded 32 points in 35 games as the season spiraled out of control at BU.

However, the transition from NCAA hockey to NHL competition is a steep jump, particularly in the heart of a playoff push when every team is engaged in fist-fighting for standings points. Hutson skated to a minus-3 plus/minus rating during the Capitals’ final 14 contests. He wasn’t a defensive liability overall; a minus-4 outing against the New York Rangers in an 8-1 loss at Madison Square Garden on April 5, 2026 certainly wasn’t his most memorable night. That disappointing effort against a non-playoff squad contributed to Washington watching the playoff party from outside the bracket last spring. 

In this world of disasters, Hutson’s NHL development includes several nights when the young defender is exposed by experienced NHL counterparts. Despite secondary usage on the man advantage, he is unable to overcome his defensive troubles and finishes with negative plus/minus numbers during his rookie campaign.

Logan Thompson Endures Worst Season of Career in 2026-27

Washington trading a pair of third-round draft picks to the Vegas Golden Knights to acquire Logan Thompson at the 2024 NHL Draft has paid off handsomely. The 29-year-old owns a 62-27-12 record with a 2.46 goals-against average (GAA) and a .911 save percentage (SV%) in 101 games with the Capitals. 

All good things come to an end. Maybe the heavy usage over the last two seasons finally gets to Thompson. He skated in 58 of 82 games for Washington, tied with Andrei Vasilevskiy for third most in the league last season. The 15-game increase represented a heavy shift over his previous workload, where he averaged 44.5 games as part of a split-tandem. 

Can Washington solve the puzzle if the defense doesn’t come together as expected next fall? Where is the Capitals record if Thompson posts a career-worst 2.80 GAA and a .890 SV% this season? Washington’s new campaign certainly features far more questions if their incumbent starting goalie’s stats return to earth with a mortal .500 record alongside an inflated GAA and SV%. Given his NHL history, there is a better-than-average chance that Thompson provides elite goaltending for the Capitals. However, there is always the possibility that he struggles after logging a significant number of games over the last two seasons.

If backup goalie Charlie Lindgren doesn’t improve his 3.52 GAA and .879% SV% from last season, that underwhelming goalie combo paints an ugly picture with the Capitals looking up at the rest of the Metropolitan Division (and Eastern Conference) by the end of the 2026-27 campaign.

In that scenario, it would lead to the actual worst-case scenario for Washington: Alex Ovechkin missing the playoffs for the second year in a row.

Alex Ovechkin Missing the NHL Playoffs Again Is the Worst-Case Scenario for Washington

In his final media availability last season, Ovechkin claimed it was “the fastest season” he played in his career in terms of the speed of play. He also said that making the playoffs was essentially a non-negotiable next season.

“If I want to come back… first of all, it would have to be to make the playoffs,” Ovechkin said in April 2026. “We have to fight for a Cup. It’s probably the biggest thing. Otherwise, if you take different scenarios, family-wise, health-wise, but team-wise, this would be the most important thing for me.”  

A disastrous season in Washington could potentially make the long-time franchise leader question whether it’s time to finally hang up the skates long before he finishes his quest for 1,000 regular-season NHL goals, which is likely only possible if he returns for the 2027-28 season. He enters this fall sitting at 929, an achievable 71 goals shy of the century mark over the next two seasons.

An unremarkable campaign for Washington next fall could force the Russian star to question his commitment to playing in the NHL. Thereby threatening hope of the league seeing its first player celebrate a four-digit regular-season scoring total in NHL history. The Capitals being out of the playoff race and completely wasting the 22nd season of Ovechkin’s career would be the worst-case scenario for the Capitals. It would be a disappointment for the franchise and the league as a whole.