Looking at a potential Jesper Bratt extension

To any fan of the New Jersey Devils, Jesper Bratt is a no-doubt star, and one of the bright spots on a young, still-rebuilding team that has seen it’s share of struggles the past few seasons. However, to many other hockey fans around the league, Bratt may still be somewhat of an unknown. A surprise to some would be that the young Devils forward is a point-per-game player this season, leading his team in points, and second on his team in points-per-game to budding star Jack Hughes. On top of all that, Bratt has one more thing going for him: he’ll be a restricted free agent this summer.

Bratt is in the final year of a two-year, $5.5M contract which carries a $2.75MM ap hit and will turn 24 this summer. He’ll likely have one of two possible options this summer, either to sign a bridge deal that will carry him several years to unrestricted free agency, or cash in and take a long-term deal. Of course, the Devils would love to keep a young piece of their core around long-term, however the organization will have to find the right number to slide Bratt in, otherwise, as Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek suggested on their 32 Thoughts podcast earlier Monday, the Devils could also look to trade the forward for the right return. Although a trade or a shorter-term bridge deal of two or three years is possible, let’s take a look at what a longer-term contract extension with Bratt would look like.

Even in the midst of their rebuild, the Devils have shown they are not afraid to spend, signing Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes, and  Nico Hischier to contracts carrying AAVs of $9M, $8M, $7.25M, respectively. Presumably, New Jersey would want to keep their homegrown star, however they will have to be cautious of the salary cap. Even if the organization isn’t in cap trouble just yet with these contracts, they will have to continue to ramp up spending as their new build takes shape.

In extending Bratt, the Devils would likely want to try and keep the AAV under that of team captain Nico Hischier at $7.25M. That number may seem as a bit of a reach for Bratt, however it might not be that far-fetched. That said, let’s look at a few recent RFA extensions for comparison: Anthony Beauvillier, William Nylander and Nick Suzuki.

Anthony Beauvillier, Three Years, $12.45M

Coming in with an AAV of $4.15M, Beauvillier’s contract that he signed this offseason shows what a floor could look like for a Bratt contract. At the time of signing, Beauvillier was the same age and had the same number of years in the NHL as Bratt, with similar production for the majority of their careers.  The key difference between these players though, is Bratt’s extraordinary breakout season this year, one that Beauvillier did not enjoy. Over their first four years, Beauvillier managed 127 points in 286 career games, with Bratt putting up a reasonably better 130 points in 231 career games.

However, in Beauvillier’s same contract year, he had 11 goals and 21 assists in 65 regular-season games, as well as five goals and eight assists in 19 playoff games. As impressive as that was for Beauvillier, Bratt currently stands at 22 goals and 43 assists in 64 regular-season games in his contract year, with more to come. Bratt’s dominant contract season would seemingly vault him well over Beauvillier’s $4.15M AAV.

William Nylander, Six Years, $45M

After holding out for nearly two months and almost forfeiting his 2018-19 season, William Nylander finally agreed to terms with the Toronto Maple Leafs on an extension in the Fall of 2018. Because of his hold-out, Nylander’s AAV on his contract does read different than expected, coming in at just under $10.3M for the 2018-19 season, and just under $7M thereafter (CapFriendly). For the purposes of a Bratt comparison, we’ll consider it divided evenly, at $7.5M AAV.

A deal like Nylander’s would probably be the upper-ceiling of what Bratt could sign for, and would push him $250K over Hischier and his $7.25M cap hit. When comparing their contract years, Bratt appears to have the edge over Nylander, who had 61 points in 82 games, a number which Bratt exceeded, and still has 13 games remaining. What Nylander had, which Bratt does not, was a similar season the year before. In 2016-17, Nylander had 61 points in 81 games, virtually the same season he would have in 2017-18, however in 2020-21, Bratt would have 30 points in 46 games. Although Bratt’s 2020-21 was shortened due to COVID creating a 56-game season, his point-per-game production was far less than it is this season.

Considering their similarities, it’s quite possible a Jesper Bratt extension could look a lot like William Nylander’s 2018 contract.

Nick Suzuki, Eight Years, $63M

One last player to look at is the Montreal Canadiens’ Nick Suzuki and his $7.875M cap hit. This contract would most likely be one that would be very difficult for Bratt to secure, however some of the numbers are in his favor. Suzuki signed his contract having just turned 22 years old and after only two seasons in the NHL, which makes him a bit different in comparison to Bratt. But, looking at the two years prior to the extension (or proposed extension for Bratt), Suzuki had 82 points in 127 games, while Bratt has 95 points in just 110 games, and still counting.

To Suzuki’s advantage, he’s had a significant amount of playoff experience in his two seasons, and has excelled when he’s there, notching 23 points in 32 career playoff games, playing a key role in Montreal’s trip to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final. Although Suzuki is not a perfectly comparable player to Bratt, his contract can certainly have positive impacts on Bratt’s negotiating power going forward.

It’s tough to say what exactly Bratt’s contract will look like, with very few rumors thus far and no perfecty comparable player. If New Jersey would like to keep him long term, it appears the door is open for that, but keeping the salaries of star players and of those throughout the rest of their organization under the salary cap long term, fitting salaries nicely among the existing contracts, and working a contract out as compared to similar players, like Beauvillier, Nylander and Suzuki, could be a challenge for both sides.

If a long-term extension is not in the cards for either side, the Devils still hold control, with Bratt as an RFA, and can try to work on a bridge deal, trade him, or perhaps even see what an offer sheet, if one presents itself, looks like.