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Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)

Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup Window Is Closing

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By The Old Prof | Last updated May 29, 2025 12:45 PM ET

It’s time to admit what many Toronto Maple Leafs fans have been feeling in their bones: the window is closing. Not slammed shut yet—but it’s creaking, and the air coming through is cold.

The team faces a pivotal shift with the possibility of Mitch Marner moving on via trade or free agency. For all the criticism Marner has drawn (I won’t argue with fans against much of it deserved), he remains one of the most dynamic offensive talents in the NHL. Every season, he helps push Toronto into playoff contention. Take him away, and the roster instantly becomes less threatening. A division title seems unlikely even if the team still makes the playoffs next season.

But this is about more than one player is headed. It’s about where the team that remains is headed.

A Changing Definition of Leadership

If Marner and John Tavares are gone within the next year, what’s left of the Maple Leafs’ core? Auston Matthews and William Nylander will still be putting up points, but are they the heartbeat of this team? That’s debatable.

Leadership won’t come from the stat sheet. It will come from players like Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Matthew Knies—guys who grind out minutes, stand up in key moments, and keep things grounded. If you were looking at a poster child for the kind of grit and “refuse-to-lose” mentality fans believe this team needs, Tanev deserves the “C” more than anyone else on the roster.

Mitch Marner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, left, celebrates his goal against the Florida Panthers with teammates Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe during the third period in Game Two of the Second Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Matthews might be the franchise centerpiece, but what about leadership? That may belong elsewhere now. That assessment could be wrong, and Matthews is only in year two of his tenure as captain. That said, it did come to mind.

Maple Leafs’ Window Has Two Years Left—If That

On Wednesday, I suggested between three and five seasons for how long the next set of Maple Leafs leaders should be given to bring home a Stanley Cup. Realistically, the Maple Leafs have two seasons—maybe fewer—to take a serious shot. Matthews becomes an unrestricted free agent (UFA) in 2027-28, and while I assume he’ll re-sign, nothing is guaranteed in today’s NHL. The defence will age quickly: Rielly and McCabe will be 34, OEL will be 36, and Tanev will be 38—assuming he’s still playing.

Nylander and Knies should still be producing by then, but most of the roster will have turned over. I have great hope for Easton Cowan and Bobby McMann (who I think could take a huge step next season), and who knows who might come from the farm system. Will Ben Danford be the build-around-blueliner some expect? But what we can guess is that the farm system isn’t about to send in any reinforcements ready to replace 100-point talent. While I hope Alex Steeves gets a chance on the big club because he’s improved his game with the American Hockey League Toronto Marlies, I won’t bet my lunch on it.

The truth? Toronto’s front office built a good team, a fun team, a high-flying team—but not a tough-out playoff team. And that’s what the postseason demands.

Maple Leafs’ Game Is Already Shifting

The Florida Panthers? They’ve got to be in the heads of Matthews, Nylander, and Rielly. And the Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators, while still incomplete, are building real teams with identity and direction. They’re getting better. Toronto? Currently, the hope is that their stars can somehow hold it together. The logic of addition by subtraction (as in get rid of Marner, and things will improve) seems fundamentally flawed, although stranger things have happened.

Auston Matthews and William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

A realistic look is that the team might be in a tough place. They have some holes to fill if they morph into a playoff team. Can they do it? And, if so, how quickly?

Is It Time to Let Go of the Dream?

This isn’t doom and gloom. It’s just reality. The Maple Leafs can still be competitive. They can still push for a playoff spot. They might even win a round or two. But that might be more the luck of the hockey gods or the surprising emergence of an unbeatable goalie – think Anton Khudobin, who stepped up for the Dallas Stars during their 2020 Stanley Cup run, coming out of relative obscurity to help push them to the Final. But where is Khudobin now?

But the idea that this team is on the brink of greatness, just one piece away, could be past its expiry date. For years, the dream of a Maple Leafs dynasty felt like chasing Camelot — a shining ideal just out of reach, built on youth, talent, and the belief that destiny was finally ours.

But like all great myths, the illusion fades. The knights are older now, turmoil never left the kingdom, and Lord Stanley’s Cup was never secured. Maybe it’s time to admit: this wasn’t our Camelot after all. This was just a really good team, but we only saw a glimpse of what might have been.

What’s coming now is something else. A new version of the Maple Leafs, with a different identity, different leaders, and hopefully, a more grounded sense of what it takes to win when it matters most.