Maple Leafs Walk Cap Tightrope in Matthew Knies Negotiations

As the Toronto Maple Leafs continue their offseason planning, one of the most pressing issues remains the status of unsigned forward Matthew Knies. The 22-year-old winger has emerged as a core piece of the franchise, and how the Leafs choose to structure his next deal could significantly impact their roster for years to come.

Toronto essentially has two paths: sign Knies to a long-term deal now, or bridge him with a short-term contract and revisit it down the road. Each comes with trade-offs.

A long-term extension — potentially seven or eight years at around $8 million annually — would require more cap space upfront, leaving less money for short-term roster upgrades. However, if Knies evolves into a 70- or 80-point power forward, as many believe he can, the Leafs could find themselves with a major bargain by Year 3, especially as the cap is projected to hit $113.5 million (or more based on estimates).

On the flip side, a short-term deal would give the Leafs a chance to sign Knies, see what he’ll turn into, and also go shopping in free agency. That might be important as they look to replace Mitch Marner, and potentially John Tavares. A two-year bridge would allow Toronto to retain Knies at a more modest cap hit in the near term, but the risk that he could become a much more expensive player in 2027 or 2028 is very real. If Knies hits his ceiling, his next deal in 2027 — when the cap may be nearly $18 -$20 million higher — could reach $10 million or more per season.