
It’s almost Christmas, and it’s time for president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios to cue up Keith Richards’ rendition of Run, Run Rudolph and write to Santa Claus with his Christmas wish list.
Not that letters to Santa have done his team much good these past eight seasons. With just one playoff appearance in all that time, the miserly old elf has behaved more like the Grinch, leaving the Senators feeling like little Cindy Lou Who – confused, disappointed and wondering why Santa was stealing their Christmas tree.
Even so, the team hopes they’ve avoided Kris Kringle’s Naughty List this year, and they’ll find what they want under their tree. Here’s a look at what Staios should be wishing for.
It’s a long shot, but the Senators and their fans might as well ask for the Cup. All the fat man in red can say is no. Besides, maybe Hell could freeze over if it’s a cold one in Ottawa this winter.
Still, for the record, BetMGM puts the odds of a Stanley Cup parade down Elgin Street next spring at +4000. Long odds, to be sure, but for just a loonie, a bold Ottawa punter could walk away with $4,000 if the Senators pull a Miracle on 34th Street and win Lord Stanley’s silverware.
Shane Pinto – take special note. You can’t go anywhere near BetMGM, even if it is Christmas!
If the Stanley Cup isn’t something Santa Claus can get down the Senators’ chimney, then maybe a decent playoff run next spring could be. Still, the odds on that are getting longer as the Senators continue their slide down the standings. To clinch one of the three Atlantic Division playoff spots, the Senators will likely need at least 100 points. That means, from now to the end of the season, they’ll need a points percentage (PTS%) of about .650. To put that into perspective, among teams in the Atlantic, only the Toronto Maple Leafs notched a PTS% that high last season. Not only that, but after 31 games, the Senators have registered a PTS% of just .516.
To take a wild-card spot, Ottawa would probably need at least 95 points, meaning they’ll need to notch a PTS% of about .600 from here on in. Last season, only 10 of the NHL’s 32 teams played at that level or better. At this point, the Senators are ranked 16th in The Hockey Writers’ NHL power rankings.
An actual NHL-sized rink is going to be tough for Rudolph and his team to pull down to Ottawa from the North Pole. So, a cool $1.5 billion in cash from one or all three levels of government for the Senators to build a new one in downtown Ottawa would be just fine!
Even so, not even Santa Claus could make the case that moving the team from Kanata to a more central location in the city makes any business sense. At least, not unless somebody other than owner Michael Andlauer and his partners pay all or at least most of it. And that looks like exactly what Andlauer is trying to do in hiring Toronto-based StrategyCorp, who say they are engaging in “discussions with government regarding arena eligibility for infrastructure financing and other government programs.”
It’s more likely the Senators will win a Stanley Cup (or Hell freezes over) before one or more of the City of Ottawa, the Province of Ontario or the government of Canada fronts the cash for a new rink. They’re all broke, and voters are unlikely to look too kindly on their tax dollars subsidizing new NHL rinks. As Ottawa mayor Mark Sutcliffe put it, “there’s no appetite to use municipal tax dollars to support a new Senators arena.”
Still, Senators fans – at least those who don’t live in Kanata – can dream.
Nothing is more nauseating for the Senators and their fans than listening to thousands of crazed Toronto Maple Leafs fans in Canadian Tire Centre (CTC) chanting “Go Leafs Go”. And it’s unbearable to hear those chants when the Maple Leafs are laying a beating on the Senators.
A ban on Hogtown fans even visiting Ottawa would be wonderful. Failing that, a new City of Ottawa bylaw banning the wearing of that blue garment Toronto fans pass off as a sweater would do.
If he’s nice and not too naughty (always a challenge for any Tkachuk!), 50 points in an injury-shortened season is something Santa may be able to put under the Tkachuk family Christmas tree this year. In the eight games since returning to the roster after missing 20 games due to a thumb injury, the big captain has notched one goal and nine assists. That’s more than a point per game – a production rate Senators fans have never seen from him before. It’s unlikely he’ll keep that pace up in his team’s remaining 51 games, but 40 more points seem realistic.
The young German may well find a gift card under his Tannenbaum for 90 points this season. He has 30 points after 31 games, and at that rate, he just needs to find nine more points to reach 90. That’s a number he put up only once – three long seasons ago in 2022-23.
Starting goalie Linus Ullmark hasn’t been good enough over his 23 starts this season, registering a save percentage (SV%) of .877 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.05. His understudy, Leevi Merilianen, has numbers that are just as underwhelming. The tandem has the worst combined SV% in the NHL – bad enough to put them high up on Santa’s naughty list.
The Senators shouldn’t look to Santa to load up better goaltending on his sleigh. The old elf won’t find any of it on the trade market, and better backup goaltending in Belleville is not there to be found.
Despite their mediocre performance, Staios has doubled down on his puck-stopping duo of Ullmark and Merilainen. At a Nov. 10 presser, he left no doubts, saying, “I believe in Linus, the team believes in Linus. I think if you look at goaltending around the league, some of the top goaltenders go through stretches where they’re not getting the results that they want.”
He said that over a month ago, and I wonder what he thinks now. He must realize that unless his team’s goaltending improves, the slog to a postseason appearance will soon become much harder.
The Senators are ranked 16th in the league in goals scored and 23rd in points earned. With a points percentage of .516, they rank 23rd in the NHL. In five-on-five scoring, they rank 19th. All of this says that offensively, they are a middling team at best. It’s why many say the club needs to add an “impact forward.”
Fans are wondering whether Kris Kringle would have any better luck bagging one than the Senators have had. It’s well known they’ve been looking hard to sign one, but to this point, nothing has come together in a trade package.
The Senators have the second-worst penalty kill in the NHL with a penalty kill percentage (PK%) of 69.8%. It’s been that way all season long, and lately, it’s been getting worse. The league average is almost 80% and Stanley Cup contenders often notch better than that.
If there’s something the Senators hope Santa is able to fit in their Christmas stocking this year, it has to be better health. The team went without Tkachuk for 20 of the 31 games they’ve played so far this season. The next shoe to drop fell on Nov. 24 when Thomas Chabot left a game against the Los Angeles Kings with an upper-body injury. He’s been out of action for the last nine games and is listed as day-to-day.
Pinto, one of the Senators’ scoring leaders, is also listed day to day with a lower-body injury and has missed the last four games. Veteran Lars Eller was injured on Dec. 11 and is expected to be out for an extended period.
None of these injuries let the Senators off the hook for their dismal 3-7-0 record in their last 10 games. Injuries are part and parcel of an NHL season, and good teams figure out a way to play through them.
Santa Claus is coming to town in just 10 days, so Senators fans had better watch out and better not cry – not if they want something besides lumps of coal in their stockings. And this year, they should forget about leaving Old St. Nick the same old milk and cookies. I’m told he much prefers a little schnapps to help ward off the Ottawa Valley cold.
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