Panthers Goalie Must Overcome Oilers Offense

The Stanley Cup Finals are coming to Florida for the fifth consecutive season, and the Florida Panthers are looking to become back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions for the second time in Sunshine State history. 

Florida's consecutive long playoff runs are due to its deep and star-studded roster, headlined by two-time Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov and his linemate Sam Reinhart, who's a Selke nominee this year and plays on Barkov's wing.

 It's a line that has put Tampa Bay Lightning forward and Florida rival Nikita Kucherov goalless in his last 15 playoff games, dating back to last year's playoffs.

Though they are a talented defensive duo, Barkov, Reinhart, and, frankly, the rest of the Panthers roster should give credit to their two-time Vezina Trophy winner, Sergei Bobrovsky.

 If it weren't for Connor McDavid's legendary playoff performance last year that saw him become just the second Conn Smythe winner on a losing team in NHL playoff history, Bobrovsky would've walked away with playoff MVP himself, but not for his performance in the Finals. 

Bobrovsky's .919 save percentage in the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Rangers propelled the Florida Panthers to win their third Conference Final in franchise history.

 Even after starting the series with a 32-save shutout in Game 1 and solid performances in Games 2 and 3 that saw his team win, Bobrovsky lost his mojo quickly. Edmonton won three straight games and almost completed the gentleman's sweep.

 Bobrovsky would turn things around in Game 7 with a .958 save percentage, per NHL.com, to help his team close out the series, but his combined save percentage (.882) in the finals made the series a little closer than it had to be.

Oilers Coming Back Stronger

 It's Bobrovsky's success against the Oilers the Panthers should worry about, and it goes deeper than just last year's playoffs. Regardless of the small sample size, Bobrovsky's .861 combined save percentage in the regular season this year against the Oilers is still worth noting since Edmonton's offense has improved since last year's playoffs. 

According to Moneypuck.com, Edmonton had the 10th best-expected goals per 60 (2.3) tally last playoffs, which has improved to second best this post-season (2.8), and they've done it by spreading the wealth. 

During last year's playoffs for the Oilers, the success of a line would start and end with center man Leon Draisaitl and Mcdavid, who centered lines with an expected goals per 60 of at least 2.4, compared to the rest of the Oiler lines that couldn't crack a 1.77 mark in that same department.

This year, it's much different, and it's due to one of their two deadline acquisitions. Oilers general manager Stan Bowman's lack of activity at this year's Trade Deadline was questioned, but both defenseman Jake Walman and Trent Fredric have made all the difference. 

Fredric has found his place in the Oilers' bottom six on Adam Henrique's wing. Henrique, whose line struggled last playoffs to generate offense, is now generating the team's third-best expected goals for per 60, a line better than any line Draisaitl has played on.

Speaking of Draisaitl, Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch got creative five games ago when he put the superstar centerman between one fringe NHLer in Kasperi Kapenen and 23-year-old Vasily Podkolzin. A line that has a 3.0 expected goals per 60 and the team's third-best expected goals against per 60.

One of the reasons why this Panthers team is headed to their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final is due to their relentless forecheck. It's their identity, but they might want to tame that strategy against the Oilers. Do the Panthers have hard-hitting forwards that make opposing defensemen's nights miserable? No doubt, but their forecheck would be nothing without their defenseman consistently making pinches in their opponent's zone; the only issue is that if those pinches at the opponent's blue line go wrong, they leave a goalie who's had some of his poorest performances against an Oilers offense hung out to dry with an odd-man rush.

 If the Oilers fall behind three games to start the series again, they should still be confident they can win, not because they almost did it before but because their offense looks deeper than ever against a goalie they know they can beat.

 If the Panthers want to celebrate back-to-back cup wins at Fort Lauderdale Beach Park, their netminder will be challenged against an offense that's had his number since June of last year.