Prop bets for Western Conference Final Game 4: Avalanche vs. Oilers

It's a new week in the NHL, and we have a close-out game on our hands as Colorado aims for the sweep tonight against Edmonton.

Whether or not the Avs succeed is one thing, but with their backs against the wall, I like the Oilers to get their shots off.

Game 4 also offers us a chance to look into the impact of two players: Evander Kane and Nazem Kadri are both not playing, so now it's about figuring out who stands to benefit from their absence. Let's dig in.

Evan Bouchard 3+ shots (+108 FD)

Of course we're going right back to Evan Bouchard, and the best odds for him are under FanDuel's alternate shots options for three. He is +105 to go over 2.5 on DK.

Bouchard has covered his shot prop in two of three this series and four of six against Colorado this year.

It's the attempts that really stand out, as Bouchard has averaged nearly seven attempts per game against the Avalanche this season. 

We've mentioned it before, but Colorado has been generous to defensemen shots this postseason, and in an elimination game, I like plenty of shots to come from Edmonton sticks tonight.

Darnell Nurse over 2.5 SOG (+140 DK)

Double-dipping on defensemen shots sure feels sadistic, but I love this value on Darnell Nurse. We've already established that d-men have found success against Colorado, but this bet is about more than that.

In case you missed the news, Evander Kane has been suspended for Game 4 for a check on Nazem Kadri which resulted in injury.

I did some digging on how the absence of Kane has impacted Edmonton shooters this season, and of the ten players I looked at, no one's statistics changed more drastically than Darnell Nurse's.

In 32 games, Nurse has averaged 3.75 shots per game without Kane in the lineup, a 1.62 shot increase compared to games with Kane.

The next closest increase on the Oilers is Jesse Puljujarvi seeing a +0.50 increase, so this really smacked me in the face once I completed the research.

Nurse has hit this number in only 4 of 14 playoff games, and has two shots in two straight games. He's certainly involved out there, and while this goes against following a hit-rate, I really like the context that supports a look at Nurse tonight.

Artturi Lehkonen 3+ shots (+144 FD)

Just as I did with Evander Kane, I looked into how Colorado players did without Nazem Kadri this year, as he is out for the rest of the series.

I have a larger play that delves into hit-rates for a stretch without Kadri, but prior to that I'm bringing out the guy who provides us with the best value.

Lehkonen finished with 3+ shots in six of eight games without Kadri during a stretch in April. Couple that with what has been a solid recent run of success, and +144 feels like a gem.

Lehkonen has seven SOG in his past two games on nine attempts, and three points in this series. After Kadri was knocked out less than a minute into Game 3, Lehkonen played a postseason-high 21.1 minutes, which included a bump up to the top power-play line.

With his new-found opportunity, we should see Lehkonen get his chances tonight.

Cale Makar & Connor McDavid over 0.5 assists (+130 FD)

This isn't very scientific, but I'll level with you: I know in my heart that if I don't bet this, it will hit. This FanDuel special covered in Game 1 and has missed in the past two. I can't bring myself to stop betting it now, these are still two of the best offensive creators on the ice.

Goals have really been dwindling since that first game, but season-long trends still make this a play worth betting on for me.

Makar has an assist in 63% of road games this season and McDavid has an assist in 64% at home.  

.5u: Makar, Nichuskin and Lehkonen 3+ shots (+519 FD)

This shot parlay on FanDuel is put together simply by looking at how Colorado players performed during an eight-game stretch when Nazem Kadri was out in April.

In that stretch of time, Makar and Lehkonen each had 3+ shots in six of eight and Nichuskin had 3+ shots in five of seven.

The Avalanche have made it clear they plan to replace Kadri by committee, meaning everyone is going to need to step up. At +519, I'm willing to bet it's these three. This would have covered last game, which as mentioned before, Kadri was barely a part of.

Best of luck tonight in the Western Conference Final Game 4, let's cash these bets.