Should the Habs Qualify Kirby Dach?

Considering Dach’s previous 4-year deal that he signed after being traded to the Canadiens at the 2022 NHL Entry Draft paid him $3.3625 million a season, his qualifying offer would have to be $4.035 on a 1-year deal for the 2026-27 campaign. At 25 years old, Dach still has time to improve another year or two before he officially hits his prime, but truthfully, his play over his 4 years with the Habs hasn’t warranted him a pay raise, although a lot of that has to do with all the injuries that he has had during that time. In fact, he has missed more than half the Habs’ regular-season games due to injury since being acquired. Dach has suited up in just 154 of a possible 328 games over the past 4 years; the fact that he played just 2 games during the 2023-24 season due to a torn ACL and MCL certainly hurt his games played a lot. The truth is that injury really halted Dach’s potential as a player, because he showed promise of being a 2nd liner before that, but ever since, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy long enough to regain the development needed to reach his potential.

Giving Dach more than a year to hope that he can finally stay healthy could be a risk given how he’s only played 47% of all Habs games since they acquired him in hopes of being their future 2nd line centre. At this point, the idea of him ever being a legitimate top 6 centre in the NHL has passed, but Dach can still prove to be a solid middle 6 winger if he can finally just stay healthy.

This past season was a story of ups and downs for Dach, who managed to score 8 goals and 15 points in 37 games; as for the 4th consecutive season, he struggled to stay in the lineup. Luckily, come playoff time, he was able to show that he had some value to the team still. Dach was especially good during the first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1 when he scored big goals in both Game 3 and Game 5 to help the Habs get important victories to move on to the next round. Unfortunately, he still lacked consistency throughout the postseason despite playing some of his best hockey of the season during the playoffs. The truth is he’d score a couple of big goals and then disappear for a while. At the same time, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he were banged up yet again, which affected his game once again.

Oddly enough, he has recorded a 0.5 points per game average with the Habs, but his first year of 14 goals and 38 points in 58 games certainly has helped his average with the Habs. That year was also the most he got to play with the Canadiens. Over his past two years, he has scored just 18 goals and 37 points in 94 regular-season games. Every time he seems to finally bounce back, the forward gets injured and his progression gets stalled. There is no reason not to believe he could be a consistent 35-40 point player if he could stay healthy, but that just doesn’t seem realistic anymore.

While $4.035 million for a year would be a fair salary for Dach’s points per game and the role he would likely play in the lineup, given his injury history and how it continues to haunt him, getting a start somewhere else could be a way for him to turn his luck around. However, if the Canadiens do want to bring him back, it may be best to leave him unqualified where they risk losing him in free agency and have him sign a prove-it deal around $2.5 million for a year in hopes that he can finally stay in the lineup. 

Given the situation that the Habs are currently in and the relationship that Dach has with his teammates, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him stay with a pay cut to prove himself, similar to what Sean Monahan did a few years ago. It’s not like he will be able to get a huge contract elsewhere anyways, and a healthy Dach is still a very valuable player as seen through those flashes that he’s had over the past few years. Either way, qualifying seems like a high salary for someone with his injury history.

What are your thoughts on whether or not the Habs qualify Dach?