Stories that will define 2025 for the Maple Leafs: Will Marner and Tavares re-sign?

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed John Tavares on the first day of free agency in 2018, adding another star forward to a trio of young stars in Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander. Thus, the “Core Four” was born. 

For better or worse, the current era of the Leafs will be judged by and remembered for the performance of their four star forwards. It’s justifiable, considering their four annual salaries comprise over half of the team’s total cap. Unfortunately for Leafs fans, the top-heavy strategy has not resulted in playoff success. 

Matthews and Nylander are locked in until 2028 and 2032, respectively, which leaves Marner and Tavares as the next big roster decisions. Will the Leafs remain steadfast in their commitment to the “Core Four” or will the quartet be reduced to a trio or even a duo?

Will the Leafs extend Tavares?

Tavares’ next contract will no doubt be far different from the previous 7-year, $77 million deal he signed to come to Toronto. At 34 years old, Tavares would be looking at a short-term deal that would carry him into age 37-38. 

According to The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, comparable contracts for a Tavares deal are the Kings’ Anze Kopitar and the Senators’ Claude Giroux. Giroux is currently on a 3-year deal with Ottowa at $6.5 million AAV. Likewise, Kopitar is on a 2-year deal at $7 million AAV. LeBrun referred to these deals, stating: “These contracts are in the ballpark of what Tavares and the Leafs are talking about.”

Tavares has experienced somewhat of a renaissance this season and has been a beneficiary of Craig Berube’s system of play. Once players reach age 35, their level of play tends to be increasingly unpredictable, so much so that contracts signed by players older than that have their own rules. However, Tavares has shown no signs of slowing down on the ice this season, so it might be a gamble Brad Treliving is willing to take. 

Will the Leafs extend Marner? 

There has not been a lot of news on Mitch Marner’s situation. The Marner discourse amongst Leafs fans generates a wide range of opinions. Everything from ‘get rid of him’ to ‘give him the bag.’ Based on the limited information, the Leafs are farther from getting a deal done with Marner than with Tavares. 

A lot of factors are at play in Marner’s situation. The team will want to use Auston Matthews‘s $13.25 AAV as an internal cap. It is hard to imagine that Marner could demand higher than that. However, it’s entirely possible another team with ample cap space would be willing to pay more in free agency. It comes down to whether or not Marner will accept a so-called ‘hometown discount’ with the Leafs. 

Marner’s contract will be a more impactful decision. Unfortunately, it also has the potential for volatility. A lot of the negativity cast toward Marner stems from his previous contract negotiations with Toronto in 2019. Marner’s reputation amongst many fans was greatly damaged during that time, and some may always hold a grudge. Another contentious negotiation would be counterintuitive, leading to greater outrage from his critics. 

Other considerations

Both players have publicly expressed their desire to remain with the organization. Both are Ontario natives who grew up as fans of the team and while some may think that is irrelevant, many fans passionately disagree.

One consideration that could delay contract negotiations is the impending salary cap increase next season. During last month’s Board of Governors meeting, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said, “The cap under the current guidelines in the Collective Bargaining Agreement would go up 5 percent” for next season. 

That would increase the current $88 million cap to $92.4 million next year. However, a cap adjustment is possible with the current collective bargaining agreement expiring in 2026. Put simply, the cap could increase more than projected in the coming years with increased revenues and a new CBA. 

The unknown cap variable makes impending contact talks tricky. The more potential the cap has to increase, the more leverage players have in contact talks. If the plan is to keep the core in place, it would be in the team’s best interest to get a deal done sooner rather than later (especially in Marner’s case). Either way, with Marner and Tavares eligible for free agency simultaneously, Brad Treliving may be facing his watershed moment as Maple Leafs GM.