What if… Mitch Marner stays?

The most likely scenario is that in two weeks time Mitch Marner will no longer be a Maple Leaf. This is has been the direction the Leafs have been on for at least two seasons now and if you haven’t prepared yourself for this likelihood, it’s kinda on you. Of course there is still the possibility that Marner continues on as a Leaf. Maybe he tests free agency but after ghosting the Leafs for the past couple of months, Marner is actually receptive to the offer that Brad Treliving and company put forth and accept it. In the event that happens it’s probably worth taking a couple minutes to consider the reality of that situation for the Maple Leafs. The first thing that happens with a Marner return is the likelihood that John Tavares is gone, increases significantly. With $25M in cap space, almost all of that would disappear with the re-signing of Marner and Matthew Knies. Without a different significant departure, one that would be difficult to pull off with the number of no movement clauses on the Maple Leafs, there simply isn’t enough money for Tavares . The absence of Tavares potentially means the Maple Leafs are looking at running Auston Matthews, Max Domi, Scott Laughton, and David Kampf down the middle. That’s a drop off that terrify most cliff jumpers. With no money readily available and an underwhelming centre market in free agency the signing of Mitch Marner should come with the expectation that he’s now a centre. Marner at centre after going him a ton of money seems like a recipe in doubling the number of Leafs fans that have turned against him. It’s a tough order, but frankly it’s one the Leafs should have explored at some point over the past couple of seasons leading up to this point. There has always been plenty of praise for when Marner steps up and takes shifts on defence as required and as a forward with a capable two way game, it seems like something that should have been given a few games at some point, or a look in training camp. Nope. Arguably the reason why we haven’t seen this is that the Maple Leafs very capable Hockey Operations department has looked at it and said it’s a bad idea. There’s certainly a possibility they were wrong but now taking at $14M/year gamble on it being a possibility would be bizarre. It would certainly be changing some DNA though. Bringing back Marner would also require the Leafs finding other ways to address their depth scoring. Granted that Marner leaving creates the far more pressing issue of addressing top line scoring but you can look at through the lens of if Marner, Pontus Holmberg, and Steven Lorentz were to all leave, you’d be talking about using $16M to replace 140 points in three players. That should give you a decent top line option and two secondary scorers within your budget. If Marner returns, finding a way to get 40 points out of $2M is a bigger challenge. Think of Moneyball and trying to replace Jason Giambi on the aggregate. If Marner returns the Maple Leafs (without Tavares) are going to require Marner to drive his own line. Doubling down on Marner with Matthews will be reserved for late game desperation and the top powerplay unit. Figuring out what Marner without playing with Matthews on a Tavares-less Maple Leafs team is an interesting exercise. It would be likely that whichever of Domi or Nylander isn’t playing with Matthews is part of his line, but it feels like the Leafs are very much in a position where they are putting imperfect/best of who they have linemates together and hoping for the best. The Leafs are certainly letting a talented player walk if they don’t sign Mitch Marner and they have no chance of getting someone of his talent arriving on the Leafs this offseason, but if the Leafs bring in new players with some intention of their lineup card fit it’s easy to make your peace with Marner leaving. If it’s just a couple of new guys and a hope for the best attitude (like Treliving’s attempts at replacements in Calgary) then Toronto is better off putting in the work to bring Marner back. And as much as I’ve presented the situation above as Marner continuing to destroy the Leafs cap flexibility, it is important to point out that some extra work can be put in the manufacture some cap space by dealing players like Domi, Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, and/or others. There might even be a path that allows the Leafs to have Marner, Knies, Tavares, and shuffle some deck chairs (also known as the Shanahan special.) The return of Marner under Berube now armed with the first hand knowledge of Marner in the playoffs might leave some hope that a lesson has been learned and effort will be put in to deploying him differently. That’s a lot of wishful thinking and doesn’t come with any guarantee that there is a path to unlocking regular season Marner in the playoffs. While a new direction for the Maple Leafs makes a lot of sense and Marner is the easiest way to force significant change, having a 100-point scoring winger return to the Leafs isn’t a bad situation either and there is a “be careful what you wish for” element that should weigh heavily on Leafs fans rather than having faith that what comes next will be positive.