Fewer players may be harder to figure out when it comes to Craig Berube’s intentions this season than Nick Robertson. Instinctively, the answer might be the Leafs don’t have to figure out where Robertson fits, he’ll be traded. This is also likely at least the third offseason in a row where the assumption was that Robertson would be gone, yet here he remains. It’s because of that it still seems worth looking at lineup with Robertson in mind.
At 5’9, Robertson doesn’t fit the image of the tougher Leafs. Further size was added this summer with Nicolas Roy and Dakota Joshua making their arrivals, and Matias Maccelli looks to be the smaller winger that the Leafs will be looking to fit into their top nine. There’s something to be said for there being excitement around Roy, Joshua, and Maccelli when Robertson and Jarnkrok performed very much on par with them last season. Of course, style of play and fit in the lineup are factoring in heavily not just offensive results, but perhaps age should factor in as well and Robertson, along with Maccelli, Knies, and soon Easton Cowan represents a presence of youthful energy and upside that will be important for the sustainability of the Leafs’ success.
There’s merit to finding the right fit for Robertson or at least not hastily discarding the player who was 7th on the Leafs in goal last season and can now be trusted to approach the season from more of a veteran’s perspective.
Robertson gets labelled as a one dimensional player and that is both fair and untrue. There is a lot of Jason Blake to his game as he plays a North-South style and relies heavily on a quick release wrist shot, which while an incredible shot, has often been used too soon after entering the zone or without consideration of other options.
Like Blake, Robertson is undersized but isn’t timid. He’ll race into the corners and while usually lacking the strength to win a puck battle, he won’t be shy about contact and frequently benefits from his speed and willingness to pay the price in those situations. And while reliving the Jason Blake experience might not be high on the list of things to do for many Leafs fans, Robertson being further down the lineup and having a team friendly cap hit make that style more palatable.
Robertson is worth keeping around and with trade alternatives unlikely to yield an upgrade without the inclusion of other pieces, curiosity over what Robertson can do in the right situation seems like a worthwhile path for the Leafs. If you take out his rocky 2 goals in 23 game start to the year, 20 points in 46 games to finish starts looking like something the Leafs can build on and finding a way to limit Robertson’s dry spells (five times last season Robertson went five or more games without a goal) moves him from streaky scorer to potential top six winger.
There is a bit of an interesting conundrum about giving Robertson better opportunities. Over the past three seasons he hasn’t done particularly well when playing with John Tavares and/or William Nylander. And while he had enjoyed some success in the previous two seasons with Auston Matthews in very limited time, last season with 22 minutes alongside Auston, Robertson didn’t tally a single point. Of the Leafs’ sureshot top six forwards, Matthew Knies has been the most successful coupling for Robertson but don’t take this as me jumping to the conclusion that Robertson join Matthews and Knies on the top line. A big part of the Knies success also comes from Knies getting the opportunity to play in a reduced role during Matthews’ injury last season and a more sheltered line of Knies, Domi, and Robertson had a nice limited run.
2022-23 to 2024-25 Robertson WOWYs (current Leafs only)
For context, Robertson’s best G/60 at even strength was in 2023-24 at 1.32 G/60 and it was his best P/60 as well at 2.44. Last season he had a 1.04 G/60 and a career worst 1.59 P/60. The drop off last season could reasonably be attributed to the increase in Robertson’s playing time and opponents being better prepared for him. Some additional context comes with which defencemen Robertson has been successful playing with:
Carlo being a frequent partner of Rielly points to some success for Robertson late last season and while production was solid with Benoit, the on ice differentials show that the puck frequently was going the other way when Robertson (and likely bottom six forwards) were playing with bottom pairing defencemen.
Most interesting is that David Kampf and Nick Robertson together hasn’t led to a single even strength point for Robertson but that duo hasn’t been scored against.
Some other worthwhile takeaways are that there has been success with Max Domi and there might be some value in putting them together from time to time.
The anticipated structure of the Leafs top six doesn’t lend itself to Domi and Robertson on the same line unless the intention is to put Knies and Nylander together with Matthews and Domi and Robertson go with Tavares. The issue there is that neither Domi nor Robertson have had much success with Tavares.
More feasible is Robertson being an important part of the Leafs secondary scoring to start while continuing to thrive in a sheltered scoring situation on the fourth line.
There are some encouraging numbers with Lorentz. The small sample on Laughton isn’t discouraging, and if Calle Jarnkrok is still a Leaf, he’s been a worthwhile linemate for Robertson in the past as well. All three of those players are also capable of absorbing the defensive shortcomings of Robertson’s game better than players like Domi or Tavares.
The newcomers also offer some potential fits for Robertson that are worth exploring. Nicolas Roy having Robertson as an outlet might be a fit. Dakota Joshua as a puck retriever/net presence rebounder seems like there is a fit similar to what has worked with Knies in the past, and Maccelli, like Domi, seems like a potential playmaking fit for Robertson as well.
The exact spot in the lineup for Robertson might not be clear as day but somewhere in the Leafs lineup is the need for a 15+ goal scorer and if the Leafs aren’t planning on external help being brought in between now and training camp, Robertson looks like a potential fix to whatever line is needing some run support.
Data from Natural Stat Trick
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