2024 men’s Olympics golf best bets and expert picks

Shubhankar Sharma Top Indian -200 (bet365)

By Matt Gannon

Shubhankar Sharma enters the Olympics in very solid form. The golfer from India is by no means scared of the moment and is coming off of a tie for 19th at The Open Championship.

He has made eight cuts in a row while playing on the DP World Tour and has made two of three cuts in his career at Le Golf National. His game is fueled around strong iron play and putting, which is a great formula for this course.

The only other golfer in this market, Gaganjeet Bhullar, is extremely unproven and may be in the mix to finish dead last. Lay the juice at -350 or better and collect it Sunday afternoon.

Tony Sartori: Tom Kim to Win the Gold Medal +2800 (DraftKings)

This number isn't short enough for a golfer of Tom Kim’s ceiling. The 22-year-old South Korean enters this week in good form after making the weekend in 11 of his past 13 events, with a pair of top-five finishes over that stretch.

That includes his runner-up performance at the Travelers Championship, where he took Scottie Scheffler to a playoff in what was a brilliant outing against a field that is even tougher than this week's Olympics field. Le Golf National profiles nicely for Kim as he has gained strokes approaching the green in eight of his past 13 tournaments.

He has also been more accurate off the tee than the field average in 11 of those 13 tournaments. Since he profiles so well for this venue, it should not be shocking that Kim finished in a tie for sixth at Le Golf National in 2023 at the Open de France.

2024 Men's Olympics Golf Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Jon Rahm +1100
• Gannon: Collin Morikawa +1100
• Sartori: Ludvig Åberg +1300

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Viktor Hovland +3300
• Gannon: Viktor Hovland +3300
• Sartori: Tom Kim +2800

Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Shubhankar Sharma 400-1
• Gannon: Nicolai Højgaard 75-1
• Sartori: Abraham Ancer 90-1

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
• Gannon: Alex Noren 28-1
• Sartori: Tommy Fleetwood 20-1

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Victor Perez 110-1
• Gannon: Rory McIlroy 8-1
• Sartori: Guido Migliozzi 80-1

Your Betting Strategy for Men's Olympics Golf

Aguiar: Most golf tournaments present a very straightforward blueprint of what is being asked: Golfers play the opening two rounds to make the weekend then get more or less aggressive from there with the final few factors of trying to compete for a win versus attempting to get a better payday.

However, I am curious to see how players are going to attack Le Golf National's plodder's setup since anything that doesn't land inside the top three is a straight-up loss when competing for a medal.

There will likely be some significant risks taken by those who find themselves behind after the opening round. There are a lot of positives and negatives that can come from that viewpoint, but I essentially built a model that looked for a distinction of how someone played when given a corollary track that is going to generate double bogeys in bunches because of the water.

I also factored in how well a golfer could create opportunities when combining finding a more significant percentage of fairways, using short iron prowess to create birdie looks and the ability to make putts from 5-15 feet.

Gannon: Precision and patience is the name of the game around Le Golf National. Since I bet the DP World Tour every year, I am fairly familiar with this golf course.

At this time of the year, the fairways will be a tad firmer than they have been in past versions of the French Open (Open de France). Consequently, this will make the fairways play more narrow and bring more penalty areas into play.

Playing from the fairway at a high rate is a must. From there, golfers need to be very precise into the greens. TPC Sawgrass is a very good comp course in my opinion, which is why I am almost certain Scottie Scheffler takes home gold. I cannot stomach to bet the American at +330, but I believe he is a lock for a top-five finish.

Sartori: The Albatros Course at Le Golf National hosts golf at the Olympics this year in Paris for both the men's and women's competitions. Le Golf National will play as a par-71, 7,174-yard track for the men, and it has seen plenty of top-level talent walk its grounds.

Not only does this venue host the Open de France every year on the European Tour, but it also hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup. Le Golf National is a difficult course that rewards accuracy off the tee and on approach, due to the tight fairways and abundance of links-style bunkers and water hazards.

Golfers also need to stick their approach shots close on these large greens that run fast because tight approach shots can eliminate the many two-to-three putts on these vast undulating greens.