Jac Caglianone is prime bounce-back candidate for Royals in 2026

Sometimes, luck plays a significant role in a player's statistics. During his rookie season, Kansas City Royals right fielder Jac Caglianone had more than his fair share of bad luck.

Caglianone rocketed through the minors early last season. In 66 games in AA and AAA ball, the slugger looked like an instant star. He slashed .337/.408/.617 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI. His strikeout rate was excellent at 18.8 percent, and he walked 10.2 percent of the time. 

He made his major-league debut on June 3, and his rookie season couldn't have gone worse. His slash for the Royals was awful - .157/.237/.295. He hit just seven home runs in 62 games. His strikeout rate was acceptable against major league pitching at 22.4 percent, and his walk rate was 7.8 percent. 

Royals right fielder Jac Caglianone experienced a lot of bad luck as a rookie

Luck is part of the game. Sometimes a batter will square a ball up and hit it right at a fielder. Other times, a ball will barely make contact with the bat and dribble down the line for an infield hit. 

Caglianone suffered greatly in the first scenario in 2025. His Batting Average on Balls in Play was anomalously low at .172. That number is made even more improbable by the fact that his hard hit rate (balled hit with an exit velocity over 95 mph) was 42.4 percent. That means he was hitting nearly half his balls hard, but wasn't being rewarded with hits. 

He barreled up 12 percent of his batted balls. In comparison, star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. was only slightly higher at 12.5 percent. 

There is a good chance these things will even out in his second season. More of those balls will find holes, and his slash line will climb because of it. 

The one area that falls on Caglianone, and something he will need to address in the offseason, is that too many of his batted balls were grounders (50 percent), while not nearly enough were line drives (15.8 percent) or fly balls (34.2 percent). 

If he can get more balls in the air, with as hard as he hits the ball, Caglianone should produce more home runs and extra base hits. The Royals need to work with his swing to produce fewer grounders without sending his strikeout rate soaring. 

Caglianone possesses the skill and power to be a legitimate home run threat. If he can make adjustments, he could hit 40 or even 50 home runs a year. 

The big bat the Royals so desperately need is already on their roster. Caglianone could be that guy, and the numbers say he is a prime candidate to regress toward the positive in 2026. If he does, watch out. The Royals might have another star on the team.