Key NFC divisional-round matchups: Why Bears' rushing attack is needed vs. Rams

The best weekend of the NFL playoffs is almost here as the divisional round kicks off on Saturday with two games.

Below, we examine the two NFC games and the matchups that will help decide which teams advance to the conference championship on Sunday, Jan. 25.

San Francisco 49ers (13-5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (14-3) (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox) 

Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. 49ers secondary | Seattle averaged 13 points and was held to 327 passing yards in its two games versus San Francisco during the regular season, but Smith-Njigba was still impossible to contain. The third-year pro had 15 receptions on 21 targets for 208 yards, including a long of 40 yards in Week 1 that set the Seahawks up deep in Niners territory late in the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead in a game they lost, 17-13.

Per NFL Pro insights, Smith-Njigba feasted against Cover 4 defense, which the Niners ran on 25.1 percent of their opponents' dropbacks (the league's fifth-highest rate), during the regular season. He had 34 receptions for 559 yards against the zone coverage scheme.

San Francisco must contain Smith-Njigba to have a chance of pulling off the road upset. Per Sports Info Solutions, he led the NFL with a 35.7 percent target share in 2025, so the ball will be coming his way. It will be up to 49ers' defensive backs to win their coverage matchups while avoiding turning catches into longer gains.

Los Angeles Rams (13-5) vs. Chicago Bears (12-6) (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Bears run-blocking vs. Rams run defense | Chicago's investment into the offensive line paid off with a remarkable turnaround. Per SIS data, left guard Joe Thuney, acquired in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs, and free-agent center Drew Dalman ranked in the top 10 in run block points earned, which assigns value to each linemen on every run down.

The Bears shifted into a pass-heavy scheme after trailing 21-3 at halftime against the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round, throwing on 63.6 percent of their plays, according to Sumer Sports data. Chicago can help its defense out against the top-ranked Rams offense by leaning on the run and limiting the number of possessions for potential league MVP Matthew Stafford. Los Angeles has excellent run defenders at each level, including defensive lineman Poona Ford, linebacker Nate Landman and safety Kamren Curl.

Per Pro Football Focus data, Ford ranks third among remaining playoff defenders in run-play stop rate (11.3 percent), while Landman leads all defenders with 38 stops. Curl's 7.7 percent missed tackle rate is the fourth-lowest among remaining safeties with at least 100 run-play snaps.

After both teams won high-scoring games last weekend, the Bears and Rams may feel equally confident about winning a shootout. But as good as quarterback Caleb Williams was down the stretch against the Packers, it's difficult to imagine him out-dueling Stafford in an aerial attack.