Five things to watch in the NBA Finals: Wemby vs. KAT, bench production and more

The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs tip off in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals on Wednesday.

Ahead of the best-of-seven series, here are five things we're keeping an eye on that could decide the NBA championship.

Guard play

Knicks guard Jalen Brunson has been the offensive player for New York's explosive attack, leading the team with a 126.3 offensive rating while averaging 26.9 points per game to make up for any defensive deficiencies. It will be up to Spurs point guards De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle to mitigate the damage. Fox, 28, is the elder statesman of the starting rotation and is averaging 16.9 points, 5.9 assists and 1.3 steals per game.

Castle, the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year, has had strong moments but struggled with ball security in the West finals, committing 32 turnovers, tied for the fifth-most all-time by a player in a seven-game conference finals series. New York could take advantage of those miscues, with NBA.com data showing it ranks first among playoff teams with 17.6 fast break points per game. The Knicks have also averaged 20 points per game off turnovers, which only trails the Toronto Raptors (22 points) and Oklahoma City Thunder (20.7 points), who pushed the Spurs to the brink of elimination.

Battle of the centers

It turns out that drafting one-of-a-kind, generational pros accelerates the rebuild process. Spurs center Victor Wembanyama has San Antonio way ahead of schedule, and we've gotten to the point where it's futile to question whether the team is ready for the moment. If the Spurs falter, it won't be due to their youth but because Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns matches Wembanyama's impact.

The 2023 No. 1 overall pick ranks first on the Spurs in points (23.2) and rebounds (10.8) per game this postseason and leads all players in blocks (3.5) while dominating on the defensive end. Towns, selected No. 1 in 2015, is averaging 16.9 points and 10.6 rebounds per game and has impressed in an enhanced facilitator role, racking up three 10-assist games during the first two rounds. He's also shooting 48.9 percent from deep on 3.2 three-point attempts per game, and his ability to lure Wembanyama onto the perimeter could open cutting lanes for New York to get unobstructed looks at the rim.

Knicks center Mitchell Robinson's status

The Knicks need as many big bodies as possible to prevent Wembanyama from wreaking havoc, putting Robinson's fractured pinky in the spotlight heading into Game 1. 

The backup big has been a key cog off the bench, averaging 5.3 points and 5.5 rebounds (including 2.5 offensive) on a league-best 73.7 percent shooting percentage these playoffs. Robinson ranks first among qualifying players in total rebound rate (23.1 percent), per Stathead research, providing valuable minutes that would otherwise go to inexperienced second-year center Ariel Hukporti, who averaged 8.8 minutes in eight playoff games heading into the championship round and made only one appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, playing in mop-up of duty of New York's 130-93 Game 4 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Robinson's horrid free-throw shooting — he is 36.4 percent for his playoff career from the charity stripe — makes him a liability on offense, but a hack-a-Robinson strategy could backfire if it gets the Knicks into the bonus, allowing Brunson and others to live at the line.

Three-point shooting

The Knicks have been the best-shooting team from long range during the playoffs, making 40 percent of their three-point attempts. The Spurs aren't far behind, tying for third at 36.5 percent, and neither team should have problems getting off perimeter shots. Opponents have attempted 36.8 threes per game against the Knicks during the first three rounds, the fourth-most among playoff teams, while the Spurs have conceded the sixth-most three-point attempts (35.6).

The volume hasn't backfired yet, with New York first in three-point defense, opponents making just 30.5 percent of their attempts, and San Antonio third (32.9 percent).

If the Knicks can manage to replicate their incredible shot-making from earlier this postseason, it could be difficult for the Spurs to keep pace. But if New York falls back to reality, it will be the one in trouble.

Bench production

The Spurs have the league's Sixth Man of the Year, forward Keldon Johnson, but he isn't the team's best bench player. Rookie guard Dylan Harper, 20, was fantastic for a player of his age in the West finals and is averaging 13.1 points per game while producing a plus-14.9 net rating for San Antonio. Rookie Carter Bryan has also left an imprint, leading the team with a 94.4 defensive rating and shooting 38.5 percent from beyond the arc.

While New York lacks someone with Harper's upside on its second unit, Knicks bench players can hold their own. Landry Shamet and Miles McBride are shooting excellent from deep, and Jordan Clarkson has provided value on the offensive glass. Jose Alvarado, acquired from the New Orleans Pelicans during the season, is a feisty defender with a high motor, giving the Knicks a spark in small doses.

The stars on both sides must play like stars, but both bench squads have the juice to swing a game.