Realistic expectations for Aaron Judge's return

Realistic expectations for Aaron Judge's return

Early exits

Judge's return will impact this New York offense, but expectations should be tempered. 

In 2023, Judge injured his toe, causing him to miss 42 games. Once he was healthy, the Yankees opted to skip the rehab and bring him right back to the lineup. 

Once again, there won't be a rehab assignment, but this time, Judge missed 84 games. 

In an interview with "Talkin' Yanks," manager Aaron Boone stated that Judge is going to be eased back into games. That includes having Judge not play the whole nine innings. 

Most rehab assignments see a player with two to three at-bats or about six innings of action. 

If that's the plan for Judge, then there's a real question about whether he should start or not. If he does, then his bat is out of the game in potential critical late-game scenarios, and in a tight playoff race, the Yankees need every win they can get. 

The batting order

Over his career, Judge has seen the bulk of his starts in either the second or third spot in the batting order. This season, Judge has spent time hitting out of both spots. 

Usually in the second spot, Judge dropped to third in the order to fit Ben Rice in front of him. It can be expected that he will fit back into one of those two spots. 

The question now is: What happens to that spot in the order when Judge leaves the game?

If Judge bats third and is removed from the game in the sixth inning, there is potential that his spot will come back again in the eighth or ninth. If Judge is out, the Yankees would want someone like Cody Bellinger, Rice, Luis Garcia or even Spencer Jones in that spot rather than someone off the bench. 

The Yankees need to weigh their options. Have Judge hit early in the order to get more at-bats or have him later in the order to protect late-game situations. 

The expectation

Before his injury, Judge was having a fairly typical season. Despite a career low . 248 batting average, the rest of his stat line was impressive: 59 games played, 17 HR, 38 RBI, .375 OBP and a .907 OPS.

Last time Judge skipped his rehab assignment, he started hot, walking three times in his first game and going 3-for-5 with a HR in his second. After that, he cooled down, finishing the last 55 games hitting .237 with a .941 OPS. Still good, but not usually Judge numbers. 

What the Yankees need now isn't necessarily MVP-like numbers from Judge. Rather, they need someone to help round out, protect and extend this lineup. 

If Judge in the lineup can help the Yankees' offense improve even just a little and with the way their staff has been pitching, then the Yankees can be on the cusp of a potential World Series run.