2026 ATP Power Rankings: Who’s Ready for Melbourne?

The first Grand Slam of the season is nearly here, which means it’s time to assess who’s actually ready to compete in Melbourne.

These aren’t your standard ATP rankings. This is our pre-Australian Open ATP power rankings based on current form, historical performance at the event, and which players we genuinely believe can make noise over the next two weeks.

2026 ATP Power Rankings: Australian Open Edition

1. Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner might not officially hold the world No. 1 ranking. Still, he sits atop our ATP power rankings heading into Melbourne for one straightforward reason: he’s the two-time defending champion, and both titles came with minimal resistance.

Does that guarantee a threepeat? Of course not. But we’re giving him the benefit of the doubt because his main competition has historically struggled in Australia. Sinner owns these courts. He understands the conditions. He knows how to peak in January.

There’s always the possibility that something unexpected happens. It’s early in the season, and Sinner can be streaky. But there’s enough evidence from the past two years to back him for another strong showing. Until someone actually beats him in Melbourne, he’s the favorite.

1. Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz has never performed well in Melbourne, which is genuinely bizarre considering how perfectly his game should translate to these courts. He’s yet to make a semi-final there. For a player who’s been one of the two best in the world for years now, that’s shocking.

But he’s still the official world No. 1. He’s still capable of winning any tournament he enters when he’s locked in. That’s more than enough justification to rank him second on this list.

Just not any higher. His history in Australia is too problematic to ignore. Until he proves he can thrive in Melbourne, there’s a ceiling on how much faith we can place in him there.

1. Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev didn’t look particularly sharp at the United Cup, but he’s got plenty working in his favor heading into Melbourne. His serve remains a legitimate weapon capable of carrying him deep into the tournament. Case in point: last year’s run to the final.

That result should give him confidence, even if his inability to actually win the big matches leaves a massive question mark over what he’ll ultimately accomplish. We don’t think he can win the title. But compared to the rest of the field, we like his chances for a deep run more than most.

1. Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is the most successful player in Australian Open history with a record ten titles. He’s also far removed from those peak days. But writing him off would be foolish.

He’s still better than the vast majority of players who’ll compete in Melbourne, making him a legitimate candidate for another deep run. Where Djokovic has faltered recently is against the elite tier, specifically Sinner and Alcaraz. We don’t see him getting past them this time either.

But he’ll handle everyone else with relative ease, which is why he lands at No. 4. Respect the history. Respect the pedigree. Just don’t expect miracles.

1. Alexander Bublik

Bublik won Hong Kong and cracked the top ten, but ranking him fifth might seem bold. We’re believers, though. He’s been playing elite tennis for an extended stretch, and his aggressive style, both on serve and in rallies, will make him incredibly dangerous in Melbourne.

More importantly, he’s never looked fitter. His movement has improved dramatically. If everything clicks for Bublik over these two weeks, don’t be shocked if he goes genuinely deep. The talent has always been there. Now the body is finally backing it up.

1. Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev won a title in his first week of 2026, something that took him ten months to accomplish in 2025. And it wasn’t luck. Medvedev looked as confident in Brisbane as we’ve seen him in years.

We have genuine faith that momentum carries into Melbourne. He’s had strong performances there before, nearly winning that iconic final against Rafael Nadal. If Medvedev builds on what he showed in Brisbane, he can absolutely expect a quality result.

Fast courts suit his game. His serve becomes a weapon. His defensive skills shine. All the pieces are there for a strong showing.

1. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Predicting what Felix Auger-Aliassime might do at any tennis tournament is a fool’s errand. He’s maddeningly streaky and capable of literally anything on any given week.

That said, he’s shown a decent level in Australia over the years, and the way he finished 2025 suggests he could come out strong in 2026. That combination of factors lands him at number seven, though we’re far from confident in this pick. He’s disappointed too many times before.

1. Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti opened the year solidly with a good run in Hong Kong, but his match against Bublik exposed fundamental flaws that will hold him back on courts like Melbourne’s.

He’s too timid. He truly lacks the aggression needed to push around stronger players. Until he figures that out, we don’t expect him to leap from a genuine contender, even though the raw tools are there. Expect a good, solid showing from Musetti. Just don’t expect anything more.

1. Alex de Minaur

The lone Australian on this list makes it purely because he’s Australian and will have massive crowd support behind him. de Minaur will do what he always does in Melbourne: compete hard and fight for every ball.

It’ll be enough for a couple of wins, but we don’t see much beyond that.

He’s been stuck at his current level for a while without much improvement, which creates a natural ceiling. He’s an outstanding player. Just not an elite one. His ranking and results reflect that reality.

1. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Welcome to the blast-from-the-past segment, where we’re going slightly bold and predicting Stefanos Tsitsipas will make the second week.

We know he’s been poor for a while. We know he doesn’t look like the same player anymore. But this is someone who made multiple Grand Slam finals, including one in Australia. He’s always had massive support in Melbourne and has consistently played some of his best tennis there, often expressing how at home he feels.

After some encouraging signs at the United Cup, we’re backing him to do something close to unthinkable.

Will it happen? Probably not. But if Tsitsipas is going to have one more moment in tennis, Melbourne feels like the place for it.