Apologies for the delay, (hopefully) won't happen again.
Last week:
IND: W, 42-6
NE: 35-7
OFP had 5.8% of entries knocked out last week, while that figure was slightly lower in the Yahoo! pool, at 3.9%. There are 71,270 entries left in the Yahoo! pool.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New England (2nd), New Orleans (3rd), Green Bay (4th), Philadelphia (5th), Dallas (10th), Houston (20th), Washington (22nd)
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
San Diego (vs. Oakland)
Yet another big favorite (-16.5, 91.4% to win) that is ridiculously popular in both pools. Even with the huge consensus figures, after considering those two factors I have the Chargers as the most attractive option when considering value this week alone.
Looking ahead to their upcoming schedule, San Diego plays the Chiefs and Redskins at home and travels to Cleveland; all three of those games have prospective lines at SportsBetting between 10 and 14, so it'd be nice to keep them around, particularly since I'm running pretty low on elite teams. However, there are multiple better options available to me in each of those weeks, so future value shouldn't be a huge deterrent here.
Chicago (vs. Cleveland)
The second biggest spread of the week is also the second most popular pick, quite a coincidence there. The problem in comparison to SD is that you're given up a ton of value by dropping down to -13.5 (84.9%), and not gaining a whole lot by getting the consensus down 17% (obviously gaining one percent of win probability is worth more than losing one percent of consensus).
The Bears will be huge favorites in Week 13 when they host the Rams, and SBET has them at -10 in their W17 matchup at Detroit, so while they don't have as much future value as the Chargers I'm not anxious to get rid of them either.
Arizona (vs. Carolina)
The Cardinals are -10 (81.3%) this week, and are comparable to the Bears in the main two criteria, giving up some win probability but trading a good amount of consensus. They have a pretty ridiculous second half schedule, with games in various locations against the Seahawks, Rams (twice), Titans, and Lions, so I think I'd rather save Arizona than Chicago.
Dallas (vs. Seattle)
I've already used the Cowboys; if you have not we can discuss that in the comments.
Indianapolis (vs. San Francisco)
At under 6% in Yahoo! and OFP, the Colts (-11.5, 83.0%) are trumped only by San Diego in attractiveness for this week alone against the mighty 49ers. Since they are #1 in DAVE though, and are favored by at least 8.5 at SBET in six of their final nine games, Indy would definitely be missed in the future if I used them this week.
One other thing that is worth thinking about is that coming into this week, 58.6% of OFP survivors had used the Colts. After this SF game they will be around 64%. That means even if every single person that still has them available takes Indianapolis next week, they still won't be as popular as the Chargers are right now. This has to be considered a positive attribute, since it means even in games where they are favored by a ton of points (W13 vs. TEN is at -17 at SBET right now), their consensus numbers won't be that much of a drawback.
The list of how many users have used each team in OFP through the first seven weeks of the season can be found here; I excluded the percentages for weeks teams lost, since we don't care which teams those eliminated users still have available. So a team being really popular one week makes them both less attractive in that week and more useful in the future.
Detroit (vs. St. Louis)
This line has (finally) been released at DET -4.5. The Lions are 32nd in DAVE. Out of 32. Go Rams.
New Orleans (vs. Atlanta)
See: Dallas.
Always good to throw an additional variable in the mix mid-post to complicate things as much as possible. To recap:
SD: Extremely popular this week. Similarly likely to win. Favored by 10-14 in three future games, but never even the second best available option according to SBET. Will have been taken by 61.1% of OFP survivors after this week if they win.
CHI: Second most likely to win but also second most popular. Possible pick in two future weeks. Will have been taken by 51.5% of OFP survivors after this week if they win.
ARI: Least likely to win of four possible options, third most popular. Possible pick in five future weeks. Will have been taken by 9.8% of OFP survivors if they win.
IND: Third most likely to win, and not very popular at all. Possible pick in six future weeks, although to be fair only one of those lines (vs. TEN) is over -10. Will have been taken by 64.2% of OFP survivors if they win.
I think we can eliminate the Cardinals, since they are not doing too well in any of the four categories. The Bears are next, since their popularity greatly outweighs them being slightly more likely to win that IND. Beyond that, I think Indy's overall team strength and future value (obviously related factors) carry the day, so after all that I'm going with the most obvious option-- the Chargers are the pick this week.
Original Story:
3
2
