Last week:
BAL: W, 34-3
GB: W, 36-17
PHI: W, 34-14
NYG: W, 24-0
DAL: W, 21-7
Not a strong week for eliminations, with the five most popular selections each winning by at least two TDs. The Redskins and Steelers did knock a few misguided people out; 7.0% of the Yahoo! pool failed to advance.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (4th), Dallas (11th), Washington (19th)
Here are this week's most popular selections in the Yahoo! pool:
NY Giants (at Kansas City)
By far the biggest mismatch of the week, with the only issue being the game's location. This may come as a surprise, but the Giants are only favored by 8.5, and their money line (-375 at Pinnacle) is only the fourth most attractive of the week. Combine that with the fact they'll be valuable in future weeks (vs OAK, vs ARI, vs CAR), and the large number of people taking them this week, and there's no reason to use New York here.
San Francisco (vs. St. Louis)
The 49ers are -430/+370 (79.2%) at Pinnacle, and are favored by nine points. They're fairly popular ATS at the consensus sites and in the Yahoo! contest, and it looks like their only future value will come at home against the Lions in Week 16. This is just a solid pick; nothing about it is spectacular, but there aren't many drawbacks either. Definite possibility.
Chicago (vs. Detroit)
So the Lions win one game...at home...barely...against a pretty questionable Washington team...and suddenly they're both a much less popular fade in Survivor and a public dog at Wagerline? That Detroit win last week was actually very helpful in this contest if it means fewer people are going to be picking against them each week; they're still just 31st in DAVE (the Browns have taken over the bottom spot, congratulations to them).
The Bears have some favorable home matchups the rest of the way, hosting both Cleveland and St. Louis. Chicago is favored by slightly more than the 49ers (-450/+390, 80.0%), and a bit less popular in the Yahoo! contest, but I'd also rather have use of them in Weeks 5-17 than SF, so it's quite close between the two.
(It's also worth noting that the Bears are the most popular pick (32.5%) in the ESPN pool. That information is worth something, but it's also a good example of why I switched over to the Yahoo! data. There's no question that most of those people took Chicago before last weekend, when the Lions hadn't won in 21 months and were an obvious "lock" to lose all their road games. I really think Yahoo! not allowing you to make picks more than a week in advance makes it much more comparable to actual office pools.)
Indianapolis (vs. Seattle)
There's no line for this game at the moment, although the SportsBetting prospective odds had the Colts as a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup a week ago. It's looking like Hasselback won't play, but I'm not ]interested in getting involved here.
Cincinnati (at Cleveland)
I realize the Browns are horrible, but since when are the Bengals a viable Survivor pick on the road? Cincinnati is only favored by 5.5 here, this would be a terrible selection.
Houston (vs. Oakland)
The Texans are favored by nine at the moment, and are receiving fairly split action at the consensus sites. Their ML comes in at -415/+355 (78.6%) at Pinnacle, which is essentially equivalent to San Francisco and Chicago. What makes the Texans more attractive than those other two, at least if you just isolate this week, is their lack of popularity in the Yahoo! contest (they're also only at 6.2% in the ESPN pool).
Houston is pretty much useless going forward, as their five remaining home games come against San Francisco, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Seattle, and New England. I thought this week was going to be a difficult decision between the 49ers and Bears, but it looks like I was wrong; the Texans are the pick.
Original Story:
http://vegaswatch.net/2009/09/2009-nf...
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