Five Positional Battles to Watch

The Green Bay Packers have a new defensive coaching staff that is charged with implementing a new defense. But while their role is perhaps the most prominent key to the success of the team in 2009, it comes down to the players on the field.To that end, there are five positions that come in as potential weaknesses for the Packers. In each case, there are players on the roster the team realistically hopes can step up to keep them from being areas opponents can exploit.The Packers have the potential of winning as many as 12 games between the regular season and playoffs. But essentially, each of these weaknesses is likely to cost them a win; thus, if none of them are shored up, the Packers could well finish with a losing record. I will look at Mike McCarthy's key personnel choices that will shape the season--the players involved, predict who starts, and declare whether that player will succeed. Note: there will also be two other intense positional battles (safety and cornerback) that I will not be examining in detail. Those positions are deep enough that whoever wins the starting job will be among the best at his position in the division, and the backup will add incredible depth.(The safety depth chart will read Nick Collins, Atari Bigby Aaron Rouse, and Anthony Smith; the corner opposite Charles Woodson will remain Al Harris, with Tramon Williams being the nickelback.)Offensive Tackle: Tony Moll, T.J. Lang, Daryn Colledge, Breno Giacomino, and Allen Barbre. The winner will take over for Mark Tauscher, who is not expected to be ready to return from ACL surgery until October; the Packers do not appear likely to re-sign him because of it. All four are also listed as guards and will therefore be competing for three positions each. For now, we will look at their potential to play tackle.At 6'4", 305 lbs. and with two years under his belt, former late fourth-round pick Allen Barbre will get a long look. He has some game experience, but ultimately, he is the least likely of the four to start at tackle.Breno Giacomino has a mammoth 6'7" frame that carries less weight than newcomer T. J. Lang. Having almost no impact in his rookie season last year, it seems unlikely he will suddenly leapfrog the others in this competition, even though he has the personality and length you want in a tackle. Daryn Colledge is three pounds heavier, has one more year of experience, and was drafted in the second round. A lot was expected of him, and he has the most game experience on this list. Most of that, however, has been at guard, and the interior of the Packers line has been pedestrian. Until Colledge shows he is ready to step up into a greater role, I expect him to remain at guard for the sake of continuity.  The real question is whether Lang, the Packers 2009 fourth-round pick, is ready to start as a rookie. He has the size and mentality necessary to be an effective right tackle in the NFL. However, he played at Eastern Michigan and did not face top-line talent in college. For that reason, I do not expect him to be ready to handle the more pivotal tackle position, although I think he will be adequate if pressed into service.That leaves the 6'5", 306-lb., three-year veteran Moll as my pick to win the job. He has played the most at tackle of the candidates (14 games in 2008 plus a few in previous seasons). He did struggle to fill in for Clifton on the left in limited action, but was adequate filling on for Tauscher on the right side in the last three weeks of the season. However, the very fact that he has failed to seize the starting job and is facing open competition suggests that he is not yet steady enough to handle the second most important offensive line position. Hence, I expect right tackle to be at least somewhat of a weakness.Offensive Guard: Tony Moll, Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, T.J. Lang, Allen Barbre, and Josh Sitton competing for both starting guard positions. I have listed the contenders in the basic order of their projected impact as players, but with Moll projected to start at right tackle, he is out of the running. Colledge and Spitz are the incumbent guards, and it is unlikely any of the returning players will have improved significantly more than they did in order to unseat them, even though neither is better than average.Thus, the big question remains whether Lang can come in and start immediately at either tackle or guard. My intuition says that the coaching staff looks at Lang as the long-term solution at tackle and will want to develop him at that position. I doubt he would offer a significant enough upgrade over the incumbents to sidetrack that development.The potential wild card here is that if Lang does take the tackle position, Moll might end up at guard. Likewise, the team could elect to put Spitz at center if he looks better than Scott Wells, opening a spot for Lang or even Josh Sitton, who played 11 games as a rookie.However, the line improved when Wells returned, and my projection is that all three interior linemen return to the positions they played last season. This also means that in all likelihood the line as a whole will have a few struggles--even assuming Chad Clifton returns to form (no given at 31, but he made the Pro Bowl in 2007 when not battling injuries), four of the five linemen will be mediocre.Tight End: JerMichael Finley and Donald Lee. Lee, entering his fifth season, is the incumbent. He is only the second Packers tight end in the franchise's long history to catch five-plus touchdowns in consecutive years, but his numbers actually fell in 2008 compared to 2007. If he were an Ed West-level blocker, 300 yards might be enough, but I suspect Lee has grown as far as his undrafted talent can take him.Finley showed very little in 2008, but the third-round pick was considered a project. He did not run good routes and had been able to rely on his talent at Texas, and it took a while for him to learn the position at the NFL level. At the end of the season, that talent began to show, and I project that with a year of learning the offense, he will be comfortable enough to just play. While he probably still will not run crisp routes, they will be good enough for him to unseat Lee, if not right away, by the end of the season.That will keep this position from being a weakness, although it will not be a strength, either. The Packers will have two serviceable tight ends that can exploit coverages concentrating on their exceptional wide receivers, but no one who will take defenses' focus away from those outside weapons.Fullback: John Kuhn, Korey Hall, and Quinn Johnson.Officially Hall is the incumbent, although Kuhn received about equal playing time in 2008. Both were injured at times, but during Hall's absence early in the season, the running game struggled more. While Ryan Grant's hamstring could be a factor in that, in the middle and end of the season the Packers were more beat up on the offensive line.However, Kuhn is more versatile, running and catching as well as blocking. Hall did not run the ball once in 2008, and while Kuhn has only one carry of over three yards, he has ten more career carries, 28 more yards, and a touchdown more than Hall, who McCarthy has never seen fit to hand the ball. Kuhn has about half the career catches and yards of Hall, but twice the scores (two to one) through the air.At the fullback position, a guy that has more success in finding the end zone and can run the ball is not as important as someone who can block. But the Packers clearly were not satisfied with Hall's blocking, either--that is the only reason they would draft the best blocking back coming out of college in Johnson.My expectation is that while Johnson was drafted as a lead blocker, because like Hall he is a converted linebacker and thus a bit raw, he will take time to make impact on a regular basis. For that reason, I expect the Packers to keep Kuhn in for all but definite running situations, allowing Johnson to become comfortable with a small number of plays where he can have an impact.If the Packers keep only two fullbacks, most likely it will be Hall that is cut. If they can find room for all three, Hall may find playing time in situations where the run and pass are both options, cutting into Kuhn's time more than Johnson's.Outside Linebacker: Brady Poppinga, Clay Matthews III, and Jeremy Thompson compete for the OLB position opposite Aaron Kampman. (Kampman is a lock for one of the positions and is expected to excel in the new role he may actually be better-suited for than the one he played at a Pro Bowl level.)It is somewhat ironic that the defense, the team's Achilles' Heel in 2008, has only one potential weakness. Even with the change in scheme, the draft and players returning from injury have actually left the team strong on this side of the ball.The draft was used to shore up this position, as well, with Ted Thompson trading a second and both third round picks to move up and get Matthews, along an early sixth-round pick. Matthews is a hard-working player, but he has only ten starts in college and played in a 4-3, meaning he not only has to adjust to the NFL with little experience but learn a new scheme.He also is a bit undersized for an outside linebacker in a 3-4, and has nearly maxed out at 245 lbs.--79 more than he carried on his frame five years ago, a 47.6 percent increase. There are players under 250 pounds successful at this position, but they are exceptional; I do not see Matthews being there yet in 2009.Jeremy Thompson does possess the size (270 pounds), but while the converted defensive end is athletic, there are questions as to whether he can handle coverage responsibilities. And there is much more transition involved in going from defensive end to outside linebacker (unlike Kampman, Thompson has no collegiate experience to draw upon) than there is in playing the same position in a 3-4 as in a 4-3, making it seem more likely for Matthews to start than Thompson.That leaves Poppinga, last years "Sam" linebacker. He is only two pounds heavier than Matthews and has to make the transition to the new responsibilities, too, but at least does not have to adjust to a higher level of play and has much more experience to draw from. Moreover, he already was playing in a three-point stance on passing downs at times in 2008.He is pedestrian, but a solid tackler who can cover tight ends and running backs. With the ability to rotate players in situationally, this position should not be exploited by opposing offenses. I expect to see Cullen Jenkins play defensive end on the side Poppinga plays to put the pedestrian linebacker behind the impact end and the impact linebacker (Kampman) behind the pedestrian end (Johnny Jolly?). The front seven will not be the strength that the backfield is, but will still be in the top half of the league.