Found March 06, 2013 on
Blue Seat Blogs:
Progression to the mean is fun.
Brad Richards is struggling this season. Everyone has seen it, everyone has complained about it, and everyone is waiting for him to rebound. What generally goes unnoticed is that Ricahrds’ shooting percentage is an astonishing low 4.5%. That’s less than most defensemen. Richards has a career average of about 9%, so his shooting percentage right now is half of what it should be.
We spoke about shooting percentages at the end of January and highlighted Carl Hagelin (at that point goalless) and Taylor Pyatt (at that point shooting at 43%). Both have since progressed and regressed to their career averages, and the same theory is going to apply to Richards here. His career worst shooting percentage was in 2002-2003 when he shot at 6%, which is still above his current pace.
Richards has had a career long enough that we can assume progression back to his mean of 9%. Since we are roughly 42% through the season, that means Richards is due for a hot streak of shooting around 13%, which would get him back up to 9% over time. It’s not an exact science, as there’s some flexibility between his career average and what he could finish with this season.
Looking at his numbers for this season, Richards has 2 goals and 44 SOG. To progress back to the 9% career average (assuming the same ratio of shots per game), Richards will take about 60 more SOG this season. If he finishes at the 13% clip mentioned above, he will score about eight more goals this season. That puts Richards at 10 goals on the season, which is 17 for a full 82 game season.
Richards certainly is struggling, but he won’t continue shooting at 4.5%, which seems to be the bigger issue with his offensive numbers. Regression and progression to the mean is something we discussed with Hagelin and Pyatt, and we have seen Hagelin rebound and Pyatt cool down. There’s no reason to believe the same won’t happen to Richards. He’s too good to sit with two goals.
BEST OF MAXIM
AROUND THE WEB
Rangers center Brad Richards is sitting out against the Philadelphia Flyers two nights after absorbing a hard hit from behind that led to a suspension for Buffalo's Patrick Kaleta.
Richards, who played in New York's 20 games this season before Tuesday night, returned to the ice Sunday after being shaken up in the third period of the Rangers' 3-2 shootout victory over...
Brad Richards was at the Nassau Coliseum this morning, but did not practice with his teammates and will likely not suit up for tonight's game against the Islanders.
Richards told Andrew Gross at the Bergen Record that there's no timetable for his return, but he did not suffer a concussion. Richards adds that while he's still sore, it's not long term.
from Dan Rosen of NHL.com,
New York Rangers center Brad Richards returned to the ice Tuesday after skipping practice Monday due to soreness, but he did not skate for long and his status for the game Tuesday night against the Philadelphia Flyers at Madison Square Garden can unofficially be labeled as questionable.
Richards did not address the media following the Rangers&...
The Rangers website reports that Brad Richards did not practice the day after he was violently boarded by Patrick Kaleta.
However, in a piece of good news John Tortorella said that Richards will be fine and no one has been recalled from the Whale making it likely that Richards will play against the Islanders tomorrow night at MSG.
Arron Asham (back spasms) was also absent...
Bergen Record - Rangers' Brad Richards expected to play tonight; Kaleta suspended 5 games
New York Post - Kaleta hit on Richards could become rally big deal
Daily News - Richards misses practice as Rangers starting to feel grind of lockout-shortened schedule
New York Times - N.H.L., Citing Past Offenses, Gives a Sabre a Five-Game Suspension
Newsday - Kaleta suspended...
Ronny Keller, a 33-year-old defenseman in the Swiss Hockey League, was severely injured after a hit into the boards during a game and will be a permanent paraplegic.
Bergen Record - Martin Gaborik’s OT goal gives Rangers 2-1 win over Islanders
Bergen Record - Rangers notes: Brad Richards "fortunate"
New York Post - Gaborik, Nash lead Rangers as Isles blame officiating
New York Post - Momentum continues in fourth straight win
New York Post - Hamrlik sees action, but defenseman ‘not in shape’
Daily News - Henrik...
The Rangers have recalled forward Micheal Haley for tonight’s game against the Flyers. This is for one of two reasons: 1) Brad Richards cannot go tonight, or 2) Haley will replace Stu Bickel in the lineup to provide better skating without losing that edge.
In 56 games in the AHL with Connecticut this year, Haley has a line of 9-12-21 with 158 PIMs.
Buffalo Sabres meat head Patrick Kaleta has been one of the most hated players around the NHL for a while now. He showed us why yesterday when he checked New York's Brad Richards from behind, and sent him headfirst into the
boards. Not a pretty looking site when your neck is on the line.
Kaleta will most likely be suspended, but his disciplinary hearing this afternoon...
Brendan Shanahan dished out his heftiest punishment of the NHL season on Monday, suspending Sabres forward Patrick Kaleta for five games after Kaleta sent the Rangers’ Brad Richards face-first into the boards with a hit from behind in Sunday’s game.
Richards returned to the game after the third-period hit — and New York scored twice on the ensuing five-minute power play before...
I could have predicted that Brendan Shanahan and the Department of Player Safety was going to throw the book at Patrick Kaleta for this dirty hit on the Rangers forward Brad Richards. If I am not mistaken, this is the longest suspension in the NHL so far this year. Kaleta has now been suspended three times for a total of 11 games by the NHL, he's starting to develop quite a name...
The New York Rangers concluded their four game home stand against the divisional rival Philadelphia Flyers on Thursday night. They’d be doing so without Brad Richards, still feeling some soreness after the vicious hit from behind by the Sabres Patrick Kaleta on Tuesday, which earned Kaleta a five game suspension. Michael Haley was called up from the [...]
In anticipation of a physical game tonight against the Flyers, the Rangers have recalled Michael Haley from the CT Whale.
Haley has 9g, 12a and 158 minutes in penalties this season.
...i was one of a few Rangers fans who liked the Haley signing this offseason. I vividly remember how he sparked an Islanders run two years ago when he fought Penguins goalie Brent Johnson. He...
Okay, I know you HBers will be talking about this all day long, so let's get the conversation started.
The Islanders need to snap the Rangers' winning streak, the same way they snapped the Canadiens. This is a must win game for the Isles if they want to bring the fans back to the Coliseum.
Both Brad Richards and Marc Staal are out of the line-up indefinitely, but that...