Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9)
The Raiders actually gave a little bit of effort last week. They still lost at home to the previously 3-8 Browns in a game they trailed throughout, but that was sadly a big step up from where they were the week before. In their 3 games prior, they lost all 3 by 21 or more, which is actually incredibly rare. That’s only the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, which is why I love betting teams off back-to-back losses of 21 or more (36-17 ATS since 2002).
This week, the Raiders are actually in a really good spot. For one, divisional favorites of more than a touchdown are just 2-10 ATS this season, which I think speaks to the high level of parity in the NFL this season. The Broncos struggled and failed to cover the spread in a win in Kansas City two weeks ago in a very similar type game.
Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Raiders host the Chiefs next week, a game they are expected t...