Free Agent SG Analysis

With Ben Gordon set to join Detroit, the Chicago Bulls look set to hand the starting shooting guard spot to John Salmons, with Kirk Hinrich being asked to provide backup for both him and point guard Derrick Rose. Hinrich could still be traded yet, but I think it is likelier that he stays (not to mention that, if this team is serious about becoming more defensively oriented, Hinrich would fit the bill better than the other guards we have). Either way, the Bulls still need another serviceable guard, and current option Anthony Roberson is not a viable option. If one of those three were to get hurt, or if Luol Deng were injured again and Salmons had to move to small forward, would the Bulls really be able to afford giving Roberson 20 minutes a game? With that in mind, I've decided to take a look at some of the unrestricted free agent shooting guards on the market who could fill in if needed. Feel free to offer your own opinions or trade ideas in the comments. Matt Barnes (G-F) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 13.6 Pts, 7.3 Rbds, 3.7/2.2 Ast-TO ratio, 42.3% FG, 34.3% 3Pt Upside: Decent scoring off bench, versatile, match-up problems as a guard, solid rebounding as a guard Downside: Not a good defender, career inefficiency (career 12.4 PER, when average is about 15.0), mediocre passer Verdict: For $2 million tops and one year, this might work out well, but, if we're truly going for a team oriented around defense, this isn't the guy we need. Rashad McCants (SG) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 18.1 Pts, 3.6 Rbds, 2.2/2.1 Ast-TO ratio, 39.3% FG, 33.3% 3Pt Upside: Dependable scoring off the bench, athletic, usually not such a poor shooter (43.1% career FG%) Downside: Poor shooting last year, career inefficiency (career 12.9 PER), poor Ast-TO ratio, will likely make $3 million or more next season Verdict: Better scorer than Barnes, but a poorer shooter with less versatility, and, ultimately, not worth the money he'll command on the FA market. Marquis Daniels (G-F) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 15.5 Pts, 5.3 Rbds, 2.4/2.0 Ast-TO ratio, 45.1% FG, 20.0% 3Pt Upside: Good scorer, versatile, can log big minutes Downside: Average defender, fairly one-dimensional, likely to be expensive (almost $7 million last year) Verdict: He seems like a poor man's John Salmons, but he's probably going to be paid as much as Salmons, so he's not worth it. Anthony Parker (SG) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 11.7 Pts, 4.3 Rbds, 3.7/1.6 Ast-TO ratio, 42.6% FG, 39.0% 3Pt Upside: Low turnover rate, good leader, high basketball IQ, good range (career 45.8 FG% and 41.4 3PT%) Downside: Well past his prime, slowing on both ends (particularly on D), 34 years old Verdict: If he commands anywhere near the salary he made this past season, which was over $4.5 million, then I say hell no. If he settles for less than $2 million, I would be happy to have him for a year. Rodney Carney (G-F) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 14.4 Pts, 3.8 Rbds, 0.8/1.3 Ast-TO ratio, 41.6% FG, 35.0% 3Pt Upside: Versatile, decent scorer off the bench, low turnover rate, bargain price (likely less than $2 million) Downside: Lack of experience, mediocre shooter, fairly one-dimensional player Verdict: The price isn't too bad, but we can likely do better. Keith Bogans (G-F) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 10.3 Pts, 5.7 Rbds, 1.8/1.2 Ast-TO ratio, 36.7% FG, 33.9% 3Pt Upside: Above average defensively for a backup, versatile Downside: Low FG%, limited abilities Verdict: We should be able to do better. Luther Head (PG-SG) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 10.8 Pts, 3.8 Rbds, 4.2/1.8 Ast-TO rate, 38.2% FG, 37.0% 3Pt Upside: Good range, can play both guard spots, decent Ast-TO ratio Downside: Poor shooting year in 08-09, mediocre defender, small for a SG Verdict: For less than $1 million I would say go for it, but he wouldn't offer much to the team. Von Wafer (G-F) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 17.9 Pts, 3.3 Rbds, 2.1/1.7 Ast-TO ratio, 44.7% FG, 39.0% 3Pt Upside: Good bench scorer, impressive range, showed solid improvement last season, respectable on defense Downside: Undersized at SF, limited passing and rebounding Verdict: Was paid under $1 million last year, but will command more on the FA market. If he's cheap, he would be a great asset to add to the team. Look for multiple teams to go after him. Gerald Green (G-F) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 19.1 Pts, 5.2 Rbds, 1.4/3.2 Ast-TO ratio, 43.9% FG, 30.4% 3Pt Upside: Freakishly athletic, big as a guard, versatile Downside: Hasn't played big minutes in recent years, high TO rate, limited as a SG, range needs to improve Verdict: His athleticism is exciting, but he's much more of a SF than a SG, so he's probably not a good fit for the Bulls. Wally Szczerbiak (G-F) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 12.2 Pts, 5.5 Rbds, 1.9/1.3 Ast-TO ratio, 45.0% FG, 41.1% 3Pt Upside: Very good 3Pt shooter, shoots for high percentage, versatile, experienced in playoffs, above-average efficiency (career 16.0 PER) Downside: One-dimensional, grossly overpaid last season (nearly $14 million) Verdict: He'll certainly be taking a huge pay cut wherever he ends up, but not enough to make him a financially sound investment for the Bulls. Ronald "Flip" Murray (PG-SG) 08-09 Per 36 Min. Stats: 17.8 Pts, 3.1 Rbds, 2.9/2.3 Ast-TO ratio, 44.7% FG, 36.0% 3Pt Upside: Good bench scorer, decent defense, can play either guard spot Downside: Limited as a PG, small for a SG, mostly one-dimensional Verdict: He made $1.5 million last season, and, if he were willing to play one year as a Bull for that salary, I would give him a chance. Final Verdict: While none of these options impresses me, I would choose between Von Wafer and Flip Murray, as all of the other options are likely to be either too expensive, poor fits, or just lack enough talent to warrant serious interest. The price, to me, has to be absolutely no higher than about $2.25 million a year, otherwise we may as well go after someone worthy of the starting role. The Bulls have been rumored to have some interest in Allen Iverson, although he has reportedly indicated a desire to play for the Memphis Grizzlies and received interest from the Miami Heat. I personally think he would cost too much, and I'm not sure our offense would develop with his shoot-first attitude in the mix. Another possibility is to look into trading for Phoenix Suns SG Jason RIchardson, who could be on the trade block. He could replace most of Gordon's offense and provide a bit more defense than Gordon did, but he stands to make well over $13 million the next two seasons, so I would balk at that price. At any rate, it's time to explore the shooting guard market.