Found January 04, 2013 on Obstructed View OLD:
Over at The Cub Contrarian, Kyle used an estimated WAR for players to get a team win total. I thought I'd do the same thing, but I'm going to do it two ways: projections and my wild ass guesses. Wild Ass Guess Catchers: Welington Castillo (1.0), Dioner Navarro (negative infinity) I could easily see Castillo being a 2 WAR player, but I'm not buying it. I could also see him being replacement level, but I think he'll end up adding some value, but not a whole lot. Dioner Navarro is a waste of a roster spot and perhaps the most overpaid player in baseball history in that he's earning infinitely more than he deserves to be paid. 1st Base: Anthony Rizzo (3.0) backups (0.0) I think Rizzo is a very good young player, but I don't believe he's a future superstar. I think he'll make some all-star teams and provide a lot of value while being paid little. That sounds like what the Cubs need. 2nd Base: Darwin Barney (2.5), backups (0.0) Barney isn't much of a hitter, but he's a fantastic fielder. Put him in the 8th spot (9th would be better if the pitcher wasn't batting) and let him do his thing with the glove. 3rd Base: Ian Stewart/Luis Valbuena (1.0), Josh Vitters (can't count that low) Don't say I'm not an optimistic person because I just predicted that this horrible duo would actually provide positive value. Not much and I'm inclined to go with replacement level, but I'm just too optimistic a person for that nonsense. Shortstop: Starlin Castro (3.5), backups (hopefully there aren't any) Like Rizzo, I think Castro is a very good young player, but future superstar probably isn't what he'll become. Coming off his worst offensive season he'll be trying his hardest. Hopefully he can take some more pitches and walk more. If he can do that, he could become a very good hitter. As it is now, he's a bit better than average at the plate. Defense is still a big question mark. Left Field: Alfonso Soriano (1.5) Soriano had a pretty good season last year, but I think we'll see him drop back down this year. Center Field: David DeJesus (1.0) I think DeJesus declines at the plate and I don't expect much out of him in CF either. Right Field: Nate something or other (0.5) I just don't think Nate is very good. Other backups (0) I don't ever expect much of anything out of the backups. Their job is to basically hold the job down a day here and a day there. Inconsistent playing time makes it worthless to try and predict what these guys will do in my opinion. Rotation: Jeff Samardzija (2.5), Matt Garza (2.0), Edwin Jackson (2.5), Scott Baker (1.0), Scott Feldman (0.0), Others (1.0) I don't think Feldman will be in the rotation long. He's not all that good. The top 3 aren't anything special, but they're not bad either. Baker will probably have a worse year than projected due to returning from TJS, but he could still provide some positive value Bullpen: (2.0) Like the bench, I find it useless to try and predict what you're going to get from a reliever in such a small sample. I do think we'll see Carlos Marmol have a better year than last year before being traded near the deadline. I have no clue what to expect from Kyuji Fujikawa. Shawn Camp is OK and so is James Russell. As long as Rafael Dolis doesn't actually close games this year, I'll consider the bullpen outstanding. Total: 24.5 WAR Replacement level is generally thought to be a .300 winning percentage, which is equal to 48.6 wins over 162 games. Let's get started. So my wild ass guess is that the Cubs win 73 games. Kyle on The Cub Contrarion got 80-82, but he was using a .330 replacement level team and was even more optimistic than the optimistic me. Projections (CAIRO) In table format… Player oWAR pWAR Fld WAR Anthony Rizzo 1.7   1 1.8 Darwin Barney 0.3   9 1.2 Luis Valbuena 1.0   0 1.0 Ian Stewart 0.6   -4 0.2 Starlin Castro 2.5   -4 2.1 Alfonso Soriano 0.9   -2 0.7 David DeJesus 0.9   -2 0.7 Nate Schierholtz 0.6   -1 0.5 Backups 2.0     2.0           Jeff Samardzija   *1.5   *3.1 Matt Garza   2.6   2.6 Edwin Jackson   2.8   2.8 Scott Baker   *0.2   *1.6 Scott Feldman   1.1   1.1 Bullpen   2   2.0 Total       23.4 CAIRO only projected 30 innings for Scott Baker so I used the newly released ZiPS projection of 1.6 instead. For Samardzija, CAIRO was still projecting some relief appearances since he'd been a reliever in 2011 so I also used the 3.1 ZiPS projection. The projections version (better than my wild ass guesses) makes the Cubs a 72 win team.
1 Comment:
  • I predict 62 wins. They still suck, no matter what they do. Why don't Cubs fans stop rooting for a minor-league team and root for a REAL baseball team, the WhiteSox. Then the cubs fans won't be so miserable and drunk all the time anymore. But I don't think anything will take away their stuck-upness.
THE BACKYARD
BEST OF MAXIM
RELATED ARTICLES

Cubs make a deal in the 4th dimension. Welcome back Dontrelle Willis.

In 2002 the Cubs traded Dontrelle Willis, Julian Tavarez and two minor leaguers for Antonio Alfonseca and Matt Clement.11 years later, they get Willis back. What does it mean in the cosmic scheme?The big picture?The Cubs got Alfonseca and Clement for Tavarez!And that is crafty, my friend.A deal made in the 4th dimension.Way back when, I took a class called "3-D Design"...

2013 Cubs ZiPS Projections

The Cubs ZiPS projections for 2013 are available on Fangraphs now. The Cubs are projected by ZiPS to have, in shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, to have a pair of basically All Star-type players who are also just 23 years old. Those are good kinds of players to have — especially for a team that isn’t likely to be very competitive this season, but has the...

Do the Chicago Cubs have an ace in Matt Garza?

When the offseason began, it was no mystery as to what the Chicago Cubs hoped to achieve. After watching their rotation completely fall apart after a couple of mid-season trades and injuries, they hoped to build up their rotation. And by all accounts they have done exactly that. The Cubs have built up a rotation that now goes seven deep, having signed four free agent pitchers....

Checking Out the 2013 Cubs ZiPS Projections

The 2013 ZiPS projections have begun to come out at their new home on FanGraphs, and the Cubs projections were posted today.  The ZiPS projections are unique in that they not only project the major league roster, but also prospects as they would be in the major leagues if they were called up this year and recently retired players.  Most projections account for a full season of...

Choose Your Own Cubs Adventure 3: To Catch a Fly Ball

We have a bit of a lull in the sports calendar before the Cubs report to spring training in February.  Since that means we’re bored by default, it also means that we need to let out our frustrations with some random creativity in the form of thinly-disguised snark.  The Choose Your Own Cubs Adventure meme has worked a couple times before, so let’s bring it out of the mothballs...

Ink dries on Chicago Cubs deal with Edwin Jackson

The Chicago Cubs and right-handed pitcher Edwin Jackson have agreed to terms on a four-year contract.  A Cubs source said that the deal is for $52 million; including an $8 million signing bonus with annual salaries of $11 million per year. Jackson, 29, has pitched all or part of the last 10 major league seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers (2003-05), Tampa Bay (2006-08), Detroit...

Source: Cubs looking at D-Train

A person familiar with the situation says the Chicago Cubs are closing in on a minor league deal with left-hander Dontrelle Willis. The person, who spoke Friday on condition of anonymity because the agreement has not been finalized, says the deal does not include an invitation to major league camp for spring training. Willis, who turns 31 on Jan. 12, did not appear in a major league...

Player Profile #186: Matt Garza | SP | CHC

Matt Garza was oh-so-good in 2011. It wasn’t the first time he’d had a strikeout rate over 8.00 K/9 or a walk rate under 3.00 K/9, but it was the first time he’d done them both in the same season. Toss in a career-best 46.3 GB% and you have the recipe for a banner season, and that’s exactly what we saw with Garza and his 3.32 ERA. Last year he kept the strikeouts and ground...

And what did you leave us Santa Theo?

And so begins the Edwin Jackson era. The Chicago Cubs held a press conference at the wintry confines of Wrigley Field yesterday to present their newest addition.  The 29-year old righty was handed a 4-year, $52-million contract, including an $8 million signing bonus. Looks more like Santa Theo left a huge gift under Jackson’s [...]

AP source: Cubs closing in on deal with Willis

A person familiar with the situation says the Chicago Cubs are closing in on a minor league deal with left-hander Dontrelle Willis. The person, who spoke Friday on condition of anonymity because the agreement has not been finalized, says the deal does not include an invitation to major league camp for spring training. Willis, who turns 31 on Jan. 12, did not appear in a major league...

Cubs Sign Dontrelle Willis to Minor League Deal

It looks like Dontrelle Willis may not be retired after all.  The Chicago Cubs have signed the left-handed pitcher to a minor league contract.  Willis has not pitched in the Majors since 2011, and he recently announced his retirement.  However, it looks like that retirement was short-lived. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Cubs signed Willis to a minor league deal...

Cubs sign Dontrelle Willis to a minor league deal

The Chicago Cubs agreed to a minor league deal with left handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports. Heyman adds that Willis has an invite to the Cubs' minor league camp, but if he's trowing well he could get a chance to pitch in the Majors. Willis, 30, went 0-3 with 8.53 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 5.7 K/9, 5.7 BB/9 and 0.0 HR/9 in 6.1 innings for the Orioles...

Recapping the round table

We had our first official round table discussion with most of the crew this past Thursday. We have a lot to get to so let’s just jump right in. Topic 1: What are realistic expectations for the Cubs in 2013? Anno Catuli: Well, I expect the Cubs to be better than they were last year. Hard not to considering we will have a full year of Rizzo and a much better starting rotation...

Would Hairston, Wells, or Soriano fit on Phillies roster?

Scott Hairston, Vernon Wells, and Alfonso Soriano. Those appear to be the options the Phillies are now pursuing to upgrade the outfield. Not exactly Hamilton, Bourn, or Swisher, but when the hottest girls already have prom dates, you have to take whatever scraps are left. The Phillies want another right-handed outfield bat, but here are some reasons why these scraps are not worth taking.
Cubs News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.