Originally written on Buffalo Wins  |  Last updated 10/17/14
Mario’s foot is hurt. We’ve heard enough about it, and I don’t really want to get into it (but you can read about it here and here. I do, however, want to put his sack totals last season into context so we can stop arguing about whether 10.5 sacks is enough for $100 million. I’ve already looked into the sack totals Williams should get if he’s healthy for a whole season (he should get at least one sack in eight to eleven games per sixteen game season). Because not all sacks are equal, let’s examine the impact of those sacks in terms of drives stopped. Based on the 2012 season, I calculated the probability of an offense getting a first down based on their current down and distance. From there, I applied the probabilities of getting a first down (the drive continues) for each play of the 2012 season so I could determine the impact each play had on an offense getting a first down and keeping their drive alive (probability of getting a first down before the play minus the proba...
PLAYERS: Mario Williams
TEAMS: Buffalo Bills
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