St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5)
Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 47-20 ATS since 2005, including 6-0 ATS as double digit favorites and 16-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For contrast, they are 24-43 ATS on the road in that same time period.
On average, they outscore opponents at home by an average of 7.3 points per game. On the road, they are outscored by 5.1 points per game. For this reason, I don’t feel that using 2.5 as a home field adjustment for them is inappropriate. I feel that using 6 (split the difference) or something around there is a more appropriate adjustment (either way: add 6 at home and subtract 6 on the road).
Even using the standard 2.5, we’re getting significant line value with the Seahawks. The Seahawks are all the way in 2nd at net points per drive at 0.90 now, while the Rams are at -0.34 in 24th. If you take the difference, m...