Originally written on Just Cover Blog  |  Last updated 11/20/14

BEVERLY HILLS, CA - NOVEMBER 22: Swimmer Michael Phelps poses for photos during the 2009 USA Swimming Foundation Golden Goggles Awards on November 22, 2009 at the Beverly Hills Hilton in Beverly Hills, California. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images) 1

It was an interesting day in the Olympic Pool yesterday. Ryan Lochte failed to medal, it was deja-vu again for Rebecca Soni, touched out again at the wall in the 100 breastroke, Missy Franklin lived up to the hype and looked impressive winning gold, a mere 10 minutes after swimming a freestyle semifinal heat and Matt Grevers, as expected, became an Olympic backstroke champion, leading a 1-2 Team USA finish in the 100-yard race. For the first time during the meet, the Americans took home multiple gold medals. And for the first time during the meet, the Americans failed to medal in an event. How weird is it that three days into the much hyped Michael Phelps/Lochte Olympic rivalry that each have failed to medal in one event. At least when Phelps missed the medal podium in the 400 IM, Lochte was there to carry the flag for the US and win the race. Last night, there wasnt a Plan B for the Americans in the 200 Freestyle so when Lochte couldnt fight his way to a medal in the packed championship heat, (all medalists in the race last night have earned previous gold medals and orld championships on their resume) Team USA was shutout.

We’re invested in the American doing well in the pool. And its not just out of patriotism. We have practical financial implications as we pulled the trigger on Over 38.5 Gold Medals overall for Team USA for the whole Olympics. As part of the equation to get to 39 golds and cash a winner, we projected 13 gold medals in the swimming pool. We’re pumped the American swimmers finally put up a crooked number on the Gold Medal scoreboard. They have 4 golds through three days of competition. Let’s breakdown real quickly if we are on track or not to hit the 13 golds out of the pool. And, keep in mind, our projection of 13 was low compared to Sports Illustrated which projected 16 golds from Team USA Swimming.

On the men’s side, we called for 9 golds figuring every individual event that one or both of Lochte and Phelps swam would be gold for Team USA. We figured at least one individual gold would come from somewhere else on the team. And we liked Team USA to win two golds out of the three relays. Where do we stand? Grevers backstroke win took care of the gold from somebody other than Phelps and Lochte. But we need to find another gold from somewhere else now as Phelps and Lochte wont be sweeping golds in their event after that miss in last night’s 200 Free. The best chance here might be Cullen Jones in the 50 Free. Hopefully, in their four remaining personal events, Phelps and Lochte will take care of business. As far as the relays, the men won the silver in the 4×100 free, but that was a coin flip race. The men are overwhelming favorites to win tonight’s 4×200 free and the 4×100 medley later in the meet. We feel good about getting golds in those races. In addition to that, we’re hoping for no more Lochte and/or Phelps setbacks and a Jones gold in the 50.

On the women’s side our equation was the following: Missy Franklin will win gold somewhere, Rebecca Soni would win at least one breastroke gold, Team USA will snare gold from somebody else and, unlike in Beijing, the American Lady Swimmers would win at least one of the three relays. We were counting on four golds, which would be more than the single gold the women earned in 2008. Franklin took care of business last night. Dana Vollmer scracted the gold medal from somebody else off the list. Soni earned silver last night, but still has the 200 breastroke later in the week, which is her stronger race than the 100 meter swim. We’re 0-for-1 in the relays after the women earned bronze in the 4×100 free on Day One, but have two chances remaing with the 4×200 free tomorrow night and the medley relay the final day of the swim meet on Saturday.

Will we get 13 gold medals out of the pool? Right now, we’re in the ballgame, but it could go either way. Four golds will be awarded tonight. There is plenty going on throughout the Olympic Games today. But, we’re focusing on swimming in this post. Here are the odds on the championship races.

200 Meter Mens Butterfly…..a Michael Phelps signature event. Proof that its not 2004 and 2008 anymore? We’re nearing the halfway point of the Olympic swim meet and Phelps is still seeking his first gold medal, be in an individual or a relay event. That nonsense should end tonight. He remains the best in the world at this stroke and distance. According to BetUs where they have a full list of odds for this race, Phelps is bigtime chalkChalk is another name for the favorite team to win. at -190 to win the race. After him, the listing goes Take Matsuda, +300; Chad Le Clos, +750; Tyler Clary, +1000; Dinko Jukic, +1000; Yin Chen, +1800; and Velmar Stjepanovic, +2200.

Womems 200 Meter Freestyle………this is nearly as packed a title race as last night’s mens race at the same distance. Franklin and Allison Schmitt are in the race for the Americans. Franklin just barely made this final out of her semifinal heat minutes before her gold medal backstroke swim last night. She’ll be swimming out of Lane 8 and is +450 to take tonight’s gold. Schmitt, who was touched out for first place and won silver in the 400 free, qualified in this event with the second fastest time. She is +270 to win this race. Can she and best bud and training partner Phelps pull double gold tonight? France’s Camille Muffat, who beat out Schmitt for 400 gold, and qualified third for this event, is +360 to win. Italy’s Federico Pellgrini is +255. The Lioness Of Venice won gold in the 200 Free in 2008 and is 2-time defending World Champ in this event. She only qualified in fourth for tonight’s final, but at +255 to win, she is the betting favorite of the swimmers listed at BetUs. The irony is top qualifier Bronte Barratt of Australia isnt listed on the betting board.

Womens 200 Individual Medley…..For some reason, I cant find any odds on this event. Team USA’s Caitlin Leverenz and Ariana Kukors are swimming in lanes 3 and 6. The top two qualifiers were China’s Ye Shiwen and Australia’s Alicia Coutts. Want some recognizable blasts from the past? How about former Olympic gold medalists Stephanie Rice from Australia in Lane 7 and Kristy Conventry of Zimbabwe in Lane 8. This appears to be race between Shiwen and Coutts with the Americans best hope being one of their entrants swimming to Bronze.

Mens 4×200 Freestyle Relay……Team USA is expected to dominate this event. Just look at the odds at 5Dimes where Team USA is a pricey -450 to take gold. After the Americans the board reads France +400, China +1000, Australia +2000, Germany +2500, England +3000. Hungary and South Africa in the two outside lines arent listed. Nobody came within 2.5 seconds of the Americans during qualifying. Team USA has won this race in three out of the last four Olympics and with Phelps, Lochte and Peter Vanderkay on the relay, its hard seeing them losing out tonight.

With Phelps in the Fly and the mens 4×200 free relay, the Americans should get their second double gold night in as many days. If Schmitt or Franklin can touch first in their event or we see an American upset in the IM, then we’ll have seven golds total and be more than half way to our total of 13 at the midpoint of the Olympic swim meet.

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