Originally written December 15, 2012 on The Football Fan Spot:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8) The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by double digits. As a result, they are 11th in net points per drive at 0.25. They are also 14th in DVOA and 15th in weighted DVOA. The Saints, meanwhile, rank 19th in net points per drive at -0.13. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to New Orleans’ side for home field, you get that the Buccaneers should be 1.5 point favorites here. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Saints rank 22nd, as well as 21st in weighted. The Buccaneers may have lost last week, but they were in a really bad spot. They were in a sandwich game in between an emotional loss to the Broncos and this big divisional matchup. H...
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