Originally posted on NESN.com  |  Last updated 10/3/13
The Jacksonville Jaguars are not a very good football team. In fact, they’re really bad. Now that we’ve got the obvious out of the way, we can get on to the NESN.com NFL picks for Week 5. This week, the Jags are playing the St. Louis Rams, who struggle themselves to be a very good football team. They’re actually kind of bad, too. But here’s the thing: St. Louis enters this week as a double-digit favorite for the first time in likely a very long time. Can the Jaguars — 0-4 against the spread this season — actually cover that spread? NESN.com’s John Beattie and Mike Cole tackle that and the rest of the Week 5 slate in their weekly NFL picks. See their picks below. All lines are from Bovada as of Thursday. If lines are off on Bovada Thursday, Yahoo! lines will be used for those games,  Bills at BROWNS (-4) John Beattie: Browns Mike Cole: Browns Why: The Bills’ backfield is bruised up and I don’t know if a rookie QB can handle the Dawg Pound on a Thursday night. Also, Brian Hoyer (a local boy!!!!!) is arguably the best Browns quarterback most Browns fans can remember. -JB Chiefs at TITANS (+3) JB: Chiefs MC: Chiefs Why: The Titans have played well this season, but that was with Jake Locker under center and playing the best we’ve seen him play in his young career. Tough to see Ryan Fitzpatrick carrying that over this week against a Chiefs team that is rolling. -MC Ravens at DOLPHINS (-3) JB: Ravens MC: Dolphins Why: Reigning AFC champs in Miami getting points sounds too goo to pass up. Also, assuming Ray Rice is healthy, you can imagine the type of damage he can do on this defense that was just embarrassed by Darren Sproles last week.-JB Jaguars at RAMS (-11.5) JB: Jaguars MC: Jaguars Why: I just can’t, in good faith, pick the Rams to cover a double-digit point spread. -MC Patriots at BENGALS (OFF; -1.5 on Yahoo!) JB: Patriots MC: Patriots Why: Can’t deny an undefeated team getting points. The Bengals are coming off a bad loss to the Browns and facing Tom Brady is the last thing this team wants to do — even if it’s Brady’s current bunch.-JB Seahawks at COLTS (+3) JB: Colts MC: Seahawks Why: The Seahawks only had three road wins last season, but they already have two this year. But at some point, the relentless schedule they have to start the year is going to catch up to them. It should be this week against a Colts team that’s won its last two games by a combined 54 points. -MC Lions at PACKERS (-7) JB: Lions MC: Packers Why: That’s a lot of points for a team that just put up a 40 spot last week against Da Bears. I’ll take the points, especially since it’s still too warm for Green Bay to be intimidating and Reggie Bush is crushing it.-JB Saints at BEARS (+1) JB: Saints MC: Saints Why: The Bears were torched by the Lions last week, and the Saints ran the Dolphins out of the Dome. While it’s always dicey to take the Saints on the road, the weather forecast for Sunday (sunny, mid-60s) doesn’t scare me away from picking the Saints to keep marching with a point to boot. -MC Eagles at GIANTS (-3) JB: Eagles MC: Eagles Why: The Giants shouldn’t be getting points anywhere. The Eagles took a beating last week so I’m guessing Chip Kelly will be looking to dish one out this week.-JB Panthers at CARDINALS (+2) JB: Cardinals MC: Panthers Why: The only problem with taking the Panthers this week is that they’re coming off of a bye week, which came a week after they looked fantastic against the Giants. Luckily for them they get the Cardinals this week who have been picked apart by good quarterbacks this year. -MC Broncos at COWBOYS (+8.5) JB: Broncos MC: Broncos Why: It might be pretty safe to follow this rule this season: If Denver is giving 20 or fewer points, pick them.-JB Texans at 49ERS (-7) JB: 49ers MC: 49ers Why: I tend to think that the Texans are frauds, and games like last week’s meltdown against the Seahawks don’t do anything to make me want to change my mind. When they get punched in the mouth Sunday night, things are going to get pretty tense in H-Town. -MC Chargers at RAIDERS (OFF; +4.5 on Yahoo!) JB: Chargers MC: Chargers Why: San Diego is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games. Sounds good enough to me.-JB Jets at FALCONS (-10) JB: Falcons MC: Jets Why: Speaking of frauds, you’ve got two teams here who have spent the last few years failing to live up to expectations, albeit to different extents. We saw how the Jets gave the Patriots fits a few weeks ago, and I think they’ll do just enough of that Monday night to cover this spread. Last week: JB: 5-9-1 MC: 7-7-1 Overall: Mike Cole: 24-35-4 John Beattie: 23-36-4 Filed under: John Beattie, Mike Cole, NESN Staff, NFL, Odds, Top Stories
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