What will the 2011 Redskins look like?

Anthony and I need a "crazily speculative post" tag here. It would certainly apply to what I'm thinking about today.News broke recently that the Redskins quietly came to an extension with Santana Moss in Mid May to extend his deal through 2013, and to void it after 2010. If that sounds contradictory to you, don't worry about it. Sometimes, the way the Redskins go about working over the salary cap is quite counterintuitive.Per the CBA, the Redskins are allowed to prorate bonus money over five years, if in turn they guarantee a player's salary for these next two seasons. Doing this gives the team maximum cap relief, and the automatic void is just another boon for the player, who signs an "extension" without altering his free agency year. Clever stuff.These contracts manage to provide us outsiders significant insight into the team's future plans. We know that Santana Moss is not going to be a player on the 2011 Redskins. Ditto for Cornelius Griffin. Antwaan Randle El and Andre Carter are highly questionable bets to be around that long. In addition, a lot of the young players on the 2009 team will be facing expiring contracts within the next two years. So, given the high uncertainty regarding the next two years, we'll take a look at the current roster, and the probabilities they will be around in 2011.Offensive BackfieldJason Campbell: 55%Clinton Portis: 80%Ladell Betts: 25%Mike Sellers: 30%Mike Sellers' contract expires, so he might retire in the near future, but he's unlikely to play elsewhere. Ladell Betts is under contract through 2011, but probably won't make it to 2010 once the Redskins begin a youth movement at the RB position. Clinton Portis isn't a certainty to be around in two years, as his cap number will be in excess of 10 million, allowing the Redskins to get away from the contract if he isn't productive in 2010, but if he's reasonably productive, the Redskins can easily restructure that high cap number.I'm giving Campbell better than even odds of establishing himself and earning a contract extension this year, but I don't want to go too much higher than 50%. The team wants to have Jason Campbell be the guy, but they're just not married to the idea of bringing him back. There's no telling what he has to do this year, just that he's likely to accomplish it.ReceiversChris Cooley: 95%Fred Davis: 90%Santana Moss: 0%Antwaan Randle El: 20%Malcolm Kelly: 75%Devin Thomas: 60%These probabilities suggest that the tight end situation is incredibly stable, however, the receivers, not so much. The plan seems to be that the team will ship Moss and Randle El out within the next two seasons. Moss' salaries are guaranteed through 2010, so he's going to be here the next two years, but then he hits the market, and would be unlikely to re-sign here.Malcolm Kelly is likely to be on the team and in the starting lineup in 2011, and the Redskins hope that Devin Thomas is the Redskins other receiver, but given his performance as a rookie, it will be interesting to see if he can make it to the back end of his rookie deal. Kelly has to prove he can stay on the field, while Thomas needs to prove he belongs on the field.Offensive LineChris Samuels: 75%Derrick Dockery: 95%Casey Rabach: 5%Randy Thomas: 15%Stephon Heyer: 70%Chad Rinehart: 50%As Samuels continues to age, and Heyer continues to develop, the Redskins would love if they could just flip positions in 2011. Heyer's contract becomes an issue after this year though, so he absolutely has to play well in 2009, and then not drop off in 2010. 70% chance that happens. Samuels contract voids after 2012, so the plan is to have him there through the 2011 season, but strange things can happen. Dockery has a team friendly contract and a team friendly birthdate, so he's a virtual lock. Rabach has a voidable contract for the conclusion of the 2009 season, but I can't give him a zero thanks to the team's odd obsession with his mediocre play. Randy Thomas is aging, and I think he could hit the end of the road by 2010, but his ability to play 3 more seasons is highly in question. Chad Rinehart will be in a dogfight for his roster spot each year unless he can break into the starting lineup.Defensive LineAlbert Haynesworth 100%Brian Orakpo 98%Andre Carter 25%Phillip Daniels 0%Renaldo Wynn 0%Cornelius Griffin 0%Anthony Montgomery 50%Kedric Golston 30%Lorenzo Alexander 75%Rob Jackson 45%Chris Wilson 10%Take a look at the Haynesworth contract. Trust me, he's on the payroll in 2011 regardless of how many limbs he has left. Orakpo is all but certain to be there, save a freak accident. Andre Carter could survive the option year in 2010, and conceivably still be a contributor in 2011, but the chances of him being there decreased significantly when the team drafted Haynesworth. Griffin's contract voids after 2010, so he's out. I gave Montgomery a coin flip chance of earning an extension here with limited playing time to prove himself behind Haynesworth. On Golston, the chances aren't even 50-50, and they are highly dependent on Montgomery. There's a good chance that Lorenzo Alexander will earn a modest extension. His contract expires this year. Chris Wilson doesn't have a firm position right now, and he might not make the 2009 team.LinebackersLondon Fletcher: 35%Rocky McIntosh: 60%HB Blades: 80%Robert Thomas: 5%Fletcher would be in the last year of his contract in 2011, and he would also be 36, which suggest that the team would move to replace him before then. 2/3 chance of that happening. Rocky McIntosh is working on an extension with the team, and I think it's likely to get done sometime this season. He's got a good chance to be around in 2011. HB Blades is the youngest Redskins LB with experience, and he's the one who is most likely to be around in the future, because even a modest extension will keep him in Burgundy into the prime of his career. Robert Thomas was a depth signing, and probably will not warrant multi-year consideration.Defensive BacksDeAngelo Hall: 80%Carlos Rogers: 60%Kevin Barnes: 95%Fred Smoot: 10%Justin Tryon: 50%Laron Landry 95%Chris Horton 85%Kareem Moore 80%Reed Doughty 35%Hall has all the money of this bunch. I'm giving him a 20% chance of an Oakland like implosion, because otherwise, his contract suggests that he will be here through 2011 and likely beyond. Carlos Rogers is perhaps the Redskin most deserving of a new deal, but he's going to be eligible for unrestricted free agency prior to 2011, and since the Redskins aren't hurting at the position, the team probably won't meet his contract demands unless the he meets the team halfway. Doesn't mean they won't use the franchise tag for a season. Smoot's final year of his contract is 2011, but I don't think he'll last past 2009. Justin Tryon is young and under contract through 2011, but could get forced out sooner if he doesn't develop on schedule.LaRon Landry is signed through 2011 and will likely be extended before then. Chris Horton would be a RFA, as would Kareem Moore. Neither is likely to be elsewhere. Reed Doughty has value on special teams and limited value elsewhere, so his roster spot will be up for grabs on a yearly basis, although it wouldn't be all that shocking if he were still here in the same capacity.2011Clinton Portis would likely find himself in a backfield time share at age 30. If Jason Campbell returns, he will likely find himself throwing to Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and a third receiver who isn't yet with the team (if not Antwaan Randle El). Kelly, because of his size, is likely to be the star of the bunch. Meanwhile, it's likely that the Redskins are still running two tight end sets in an explosive offense with Chris Cooley, in the middle of his prime, and Fred Davis, who is just entering his.Things get murkier if the team decides Campbell is not the guy. That likely means that a first day draft pick in 2010 is going towards a quarterback, in what appears to be a really deep and strong QB class. Campbell, of course, would be in the prime of his career by 2011, so if he can develop within this offense, there's no reason to make the change.In a perfect world, the Redskins would be able to start Stephon Heyer at LT and have a 34 year old Chris Samuels at RT by 2011, but if Heyer struggles in 2009, it's likely that the team will spend a high draft pick on a tackle. Derrick Dockery should be entrenched at RG, but the team will sport a different C and RG. Maybe UDFA Edwin Williams will have the C job, and hopefully Chad Rinehart can be the next RG, but both options are likely wishful thinking.Haynesworth is still the big stud on the defensive side, with Orakpo racking up all those sacks at RE. Ideally, Lorenzo Alexander or Rob Jackson could be the LE of the future, but the team might add reinforcements at that position in the draft. It looks like HB Blades is going to get Fletcher's job by 2011, save another Antonio Pierce situation, and it's likely that Rocky is still there. I wouldn't be surprised if Alfred Fincher is handling the SLB duties three years from now. He was a former third round pick, and has the size to handle the position.I'm thinking DeAngelo Hall and Kevin Barnes are the starting corners, with Tryon as a nickelback. Rogers is likely playing elsewhere after signing a mega-bucks deal, although the Redskins would be best off re-signing him. The safety rotation is the same as it is right now.HB Blades is the guy on the defense who would likely come out of nowhere to become a dependable player, but the rest of the defense is already considered ready for stardom. LaRon Landry, Albert Haynesworth, and Brian Orakpo enter this year with great expectations, and it's hard to imagine that they wouldn't be the major contributors, along with Blades, on the 2011 team.Offensively, it's going to be up to the draft picks to make all the plays. The Tight End position is going to be huge -- I can't stress this enough. If Jason Campbell enjoys great success here, it's going to take great play from Fred Davis and Chris Cooley. Easy bet to say they'll get it. I don't see a pro bowler on the offensive line in 2011, but I think we'll see the Redskins make a big name free agency signing there at some point. As mentioned above, it's a longshot that either Edwin Williams or Chad Rinehart develops, much less both. Is Derrick Dockery a pro bowler? I don't really see it. But Cooley is a perennial pro bowler, and Campbell, Portis, and Malcolm Kelly should be on the fringe.The identity of the team two years from now should be very similar to what it is now: the talent on the defensive end is where you would start when you talk about this team. On the offensive end, a lot of young guys will be the core of the offense over the next three years. Some will develop as expected, others won't. Who develops and how long it takes will shape the offense, whereas the defense should make a name for itself now, and pass that name along to the younger players. A lot of uncertainty center around Jason Campbell and Carlos Rogers, and also the running back and wide receiver situations.All-in-all, I'm not expecting widespread changes over the next three years. I'm expecting strong player development, and three or four critical personnel decisions to shape the team into the next decade. The biggest decisions will be:Jason Campbell at QuarterbackCarlos Rogers at CornerbackChoosing to add a veteran on the offensive line at some pointPicking the right time to turn over the MLB spot from Fletcher to Blades And that's really where the front office is going to earn it's money. The team is largely built for the future already. But those key, critical decisions will determine whether this team contends for a super bowl, or whether they are a mid-level NFC East contender over the next five seasons. I don't have the right answers to those questions above, but then again, I'm not paid to. I'm simply identifying. The ball is in the team's court, because I think this team is good enough to win a super bowl. But they won't be around long if they squander their draft picks and make poor personnel decisions in the near-term future.