Arkansas State vs. James Madison odds, pick: Sun Belt Championship betting guide for Monday, March 11

Arkansas State vs. James Madison Odds

Monday, March 11, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Arkansas State Red Wolves

It didn't take long for first-year coach Bryan Hodgson to imprint his style upon the Red Wolves. A former Nate Oats assistant at Alabama and Buffalo, Arkansas State has quickly become the mid-major version of the Crimson Tide.

That's true both in terms of team strength as well as style. Like Alabama, the Red Wolves are a flamethrower offensively, possessing the best unit in the Sun Belt. Arkansas State scored a scintillating 1.15 points per possession against league foes.

Tremendous shot selection fueled that efficiency. Per ShotQuality, Arkansas State ranks third nationally in Rim & 3 Rate, eschewing the mid-range almost entirely. Taryn Todd and Freddy Hicks are matchup nightmares off the bounce, and fifth-year point guard Caleb Fields has blossomed under Hodgson’s watch.

Unfortunately, the comparisons to Alabama continue on defense, where Arkansas State’s major weakness exists. While the Red Wolves make a point to run foes off the 3-point arc (third nationally in defensive 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom), they lack ferocious individual defenders.

They don't make foes uncomfortable, ranking 331st nationally in turnover rate.

Still, the defense has been enough lately. The Red Wolves are 11-1 against the spread since Jan. 31, including a narrow cover against James Madison on Feb. 7.

James Madison Dukes

The Dukes have kept their foot on the gas pedal ever since season-opening road wins at Michigan State and Kent State. In fact, they went undefeated in the non-conference, not losing until Jan. 6 at league foe Southern Miss.

That remains JMU’s only non-Appalachian State loss all season.

Mark Byington’s Dukes are the epitome of balance. They excel on both ends of the floor, ranking 68th nationally in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (second in the Sun Belt) and 76th on defense (also second).

Even from a scoring lens, balance reigns. Terrence Edwards Jr. and T.J. Bickerstaff are all-conference talents, but five other players average between 7.0 and 12.2 points per game. The lowest-scoring member of that group — Raekwon Horton — hit the game-winning triple at Michigan State.

Defending the Dukes’ transition-heavy offense is a massive task as a result.

Matchup-wise, the Dukes’ defense sets up fairly well against Arkansas State’s mid-range averse scheme. JMU takes away the arc, and most 3s it allows are contested. As a result, foes have shot below 30% from deep all year.

In JMU’s win at Arkansas State, it held the Red Wolves to just 30% from deep. Continuing to make each jump shot a challenge will be crucial.

Arkansas State vs. James Madison

Betting Pick & Prediction

The first meeting in Jonesboro was a statistical draw. Both teams shot 50% inside the arc, and the rebounding battle was essentially equal (JMU won 40-38). A few extra Arkansas State turnovers were the difference.

That's likely the case again, as Arkansas State’s defense simply won't pressure a sure-handed James Madison backcourt.

Will that be enough to cover a five-point spread? That feels dicier to me.

The safer bet should be the over, as both teams want to run and can score efficiently. However, both teams showed major signs of “postseason slowdown” in the semifinals.

JMU’s win over Texas State had just 67 possessions, one of the lowest of the season for the Dukes. And Arkansas State played by far its slowest game of the season against App State, a 58-possession slog.

Thus, the side is where my attention is drawn. The remarkably-stalemated nature of the first box score is noteworthy, and Arkansas State has been a top-100 team in the Sun Belt since Jan. 31.

I’ll take the points with the underdog. Expect a close game for the Sun Belt’s automatic bid.

Pick: Arkansas St. +5.5 (Play to +5)